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This weekend, UFC queen Ronda Rousey aims to defend her title for a seventh time against multi-division boxing champ Holly Holm in front of a potential record-setting crowd in Melbourne.
Rousey, the first and only UFC women’s bantamweight champion, has looked unstoppable during her UFC tenure, finishing all six of her adversaries with ridiculous ease.
Her last challenge, burly Brazilian striker Bethe Correia, was knocked unconscious by a two-piece combo in a mere 34 seconds. And believe it or not, that’s basically a marathon match for the former Olympian, whose previous two opponents had lasted a combined 30 seconds.
It’s that unseen dominance that has made Rousey the most must-see fighter in UFC history, and a large reason why Holm is a nine-to-one underdog with the bookies.
Holm entered the UFC with a rich boxing pedigree and a ton of hype behind her after compiling a perfect 7-0 mixed martial arts record, with six knockouts. But she has failed to set the world on fire since entering the big leagues.
The Albuquerque, New Mexico native drew inexperienced challenger Raquel Pennington in her UFC debut. The public viewed ‘Rocky’ as a hand-picked tune-up opponent for the seasoned striker, but Holm struggled to show the same knockout power and finishing instincts that once made her the hottest free agent on the market during the split decision win.
The 34-year-old southpaw returned to the cage this past July, out-striking and out-scoring part-time fighter and full-time PE teacher Marion Reneau over 15 minutes.
After two largely underwhelming UFC fights, Holm has seemingly struggled to find her groove and truly get comfortable in the cage – which is just one of the many reasons why few outside of Holm’s training camp are picking her to win the UFC crown.
UFC bantamweight championship bout: Ronda Rousey versus Holly Holm
Rousey, the UFC and pound-for-pound queen, is an exceptionally large fighter for the division. She’s a superb athlete, with outstanding quickness, strength and power – a combination that has overwhelmed every opponent to date.
The UFC’s golden-haired poster girl chases after her opponents from the opening bell, flickering her unpredictable and often unrefined strikes to close the distance and get the clinch, where she is almost unstoppable.
That’s not to say the California-based grappler is without flaw, though. In fact, she’s far from it.
Rousey relies heavily on her sturdy chin to absorb blows while she pressures to get inside. The champ has little to no head movement, average footwork, and darts forward at a ridiculous pace, leaving herself open to counter punches.
Not to mention, she’s incredibly raw. Given her level of dominance and superiority, it’s easy to forget that Rousey has been competing as a prize fighter for less than five years.
That level of inexperience could give an opponent the perfect opportunity to ring Rousey’s bell, but I doubt Holm is the woman for the job.
Despite her 19 boxing titles, exceptional knockout rate and over a decade’s striking experience, Holm has struggled to land significant fire on anyone in the UFC with zero knockouts and zero knockdowns on her stat sheet.
Holm does have the potential to surprise a few pundits, though. The tactical striker has an exceptional team behind her with world-renowned coaches Greg Jackson and Mike Winkeljohn who will undoubtedly bring a smart gameplan to the table.
Given her speed, footwork and lateral movement, Holm can create space and pick her shots against the rampaging Rousey, but it’s incredibly unlikely that she can keep that up for 25 minutes.
Rousey will eventually close the distance and find the clinch. From there, she blends together short uppercuts, powerful knees, and vicious elbows, along with an endless array of trips and throws into an unstoppable package.
The armbar is, of course, her signature move. Known as a juji gatame in judo circles, the armbar hyperextends an opponent’s elbow in seconds, stretching ligaments and, at it’s most brutal, even breaking bones.
The submission queen has only used the deadly hold once in her past four matches, but could pull it out once again in Melbourne.
Once the fight hits the mat, Rousey has an almost infinite amount of set-ups and tricks to reach her famous submission hold and Holm would have to be a master to evade the submission over and over again.
Tip: Ronda Rousey via second round submission
UFC strawweight championship bout: Joanna Jedrzejczyk versus Valerie Letourneau
According to the bookies heading into UFC 193, Jedrzejczyk the most likely winner on this card. Yep, even more likely than the ‘Rowdy’ champion in the main event.
Jedrzejczyk is a $1.05 favourite – meaning gamblers would have to risk $2000 just to get back one hundred big ones – and there’s a good reason for it.
The talented Polish fighter is one of the best strikers in the UFC, regardless of gender. The former Muay Thai champion has spent time in Holland training alongside kickboxing royalty in Ernesto Hoost and racked up over 10 titles as a striker before she even considered a career in mixed martial arts.
If that weren’t enough to make her dangerous, the rest of her game is on point too. The 28-year-old is an absolute savage in the clinch, has exceptional takedown defence, and punishes opponents with razor-sharp elbows if they fail on a takedown or attempt to press her against the fence.
The only area of Jedrejczyk’s game that I cannot confirm or deny is elite is her ground game, because she’s barely needed it. No opponent has been able to hold the powerful striker on the mat for a prolonged period and force her to utilise her Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills.
Letourneau, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt, certainly has the skills to test the first and only strawweight champ’s grappling, but muscling Jedrzejczyk to the ground will be no easy feat.
Canada’s Letourneau is a 32-year-old veteran with a well-rounded game and an undefeated record since joining the UFC strawweight division. The ninth-ranked contender can beat most women in the world with her limited skill set, but she has never defeated a world-class opponent and that isn’t likely to change in Melbourne.
This just isn’t a terribly competitive match-up. The Canadian lacks the powerful wrestling and diverse striking attacks required to really trouble the rapidly developing Pole. Not to mention, Letourneau typically chooses to ply her craft on the feet where she’s at a humongous disadvantage.
‘Joanna Champion’ should mop the floor with her Canadian foe within three rounds, and if not, it could turn into a long and painful affair for the American Top Team student.
Tip: Joanna Jedrzejczyk via second round TKO
Heavyweight bout: Mark Hunt versus Antonio ‘Bigfoot’ Silva
If you polled one hundred UFC fans and asked them to name the best heavyweight fight in mixed martial arts history, the overwhelming majority would probably tell you it’s Hunt versus Bigfoot.
Taking place in Brisbane almost two years ago, the five-round thriller was a blood-soaked battle for the ages. UFC president Dana White dubbed it “the sickest heavyweight fight ever” as the two gigantic fighters traded blow-for-blow in a closely contested main event tussle.
The bout was eventually declared a draw and later soiled after Silva flunked a drug test. Given all that back story, it seemed like a no-brainer that these two would someday rematch, but it’s safe to say that anticipation for the return bout isn’t nearly as high.
Since the ‘Brawl in Brisbane’ both Hunt and Silva have gone 1-2. But it’s only fair to point out that the New Zealander has faced a significantly higher level of competition, dropping fights to UFC champ Fabricio Werdum and streaking contender Stipe Miocic.
The battle-tested Hunt aims to get back on track against Silva. He’s flown out to the American Kickboxing Academy affiliate gym in Thailand headed by UFC stalwart Mike Swick to prepare and spent weeks sparring with freshly retired slugger Soa ‘The Hulk’ Palelei.
Recent pictures of the Sydney-based big man show a lean, mean fighting machine. Perhaps this is just a 41-year-old man trying to fight father time, but this slender ‘Super Samoan’ should be well prepared to take out Silva.
Tip: Mark Hunt via first round TKO
Middleweight bout: Robert Whittaker versus Uriah Hall
Whittaker, the Sydney-based hitter, was initially penciled in to face perennial British contender Michael Bisping on this pay-per-view line-up, but an injury to ‘The Count’ scrapped those plans.
Stepping in as a replacement on just a few weeks notice is Hall, a powerful striker with a dynamic array of kicks that target the head and body with unimaginable force.
Speaking with The Roar last week, Whittaker revealed that he didn’t even get alerted about the opponent switch.
“I just want to get out there and fight. I signed up to fight, and whoever they put in front of me I’ll fight, whether it’s up, down, left, right, it doesn’t bother me,” he said.
This fight is the hardest to predict on the entire card. Whoever leaves victorious, it’s unlikely to be a blowout but I do favour the American to pick up a decision victory, even on enemy territory.
Hall is a ridiculously good athlete, a powerful striker and even a solid wrestler. With that combo, count on the former Ultimate Fighter runner-up to win at least two rounds and earn a decision victory.
Tip: Uriah Hall via decision
Heavyweight bout: Jared Rosholt versus Stefan Struve
Rosholt, a former three-time NCAA Division I All-American wrestler, is a flawed heavyweight. He’s hittable, has a suspect chin, expends a lot of energy and struggles to keep his pace for three rounds. But despite all his weaknesses can still beat the majority of players in the ageing and thin heavyweight division.
Struve will likely employ a stick-and-move gameplan against the power wrestler, but should fall into the same traps that most of Rosholt’s previous opponents have.
I’ll back Rosholt to land takedowns and smother the 27-year-old Dutchman in a forgettable fight that many will use as an opportunity to have a smoke break or grab a beer.
Tip: Jared Rosholt via decision
UFC 193 goes down this Sunday from Melbourne’s Etihad Stadium. Join The Roar for full on-site coverage of the event beginning from 10am.