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The Canberra Raiders have been a virtual non-entity in the league for over a decade, but ahead of 2016 they have quietly assembled a very impressive squad.
2015 in review: Missed it by that much
2015 was the year of ‘missed it by that much’, as the Raiders fell agonisingly short time and again, particularly at home.
On six occasions the team took a lead into the final ten minutes of a game, but ended up losing. On four of those occasions they were tied or had the lead with less than two minutes to play.
However, this was a team with few expectations entering 2015. Four of Fairfax Media’s ten NRL experts picked them to finish last, and none had the team higher than 11th.
Happiness is a function of expectations and if Raiders fans had been asked this time last year whether they would have taken tenth place and colossal improvement, I suspect most would have accepted it.
Offseason story: Re-signing the core
In a productive offseason, the club extended the contracts of several key players. Blake Austin, arguably the signing of the season, upgraded his deal and added a year. Key prop forward Shannon Boyd, probably Ricky Stuart’s biggest success in terms of player development at the club, went from the NSW Cup scrapheap at the end of 2013 to extending his deal until the end of 2018.
Josh Papalii, the club’s only regular State of Origin player, also added a year to his deal, and in a colossal relief for all Raiders fans Jack Wighton resisted the lure of the Sydney beaches to extend in Canberra, also until the end of 2018.
With captain Jarrod Croker and new recruit Aidan Sezer also under contract until the end of 2018, Canberra now has a core group of players locked and loaded for three full seasons.
READ THE ROAR‘S FULL 2016 NRL PREVIEW SERIES HERE
Roster management
2016 gains: Adam Clydesdale, Jeff Lima, Zac Santo, Aidan Sezer, Elliot Whitehead
2016 losses: Mitch Cornish, Joel Edwards, Jeremy Hawkins, Andrew Heffernan, Josh McCrone, Mark Nicholls, David Shillington, Dane Tilse, Bill Tupou, Glen Buttriss
The big news is the signing of Sezer from the Titans in April last year, which meant an agonising three months for Raiders fans until the June 30 deadline passed and the half was confirmed with his new club.
Sezer is joined by two Super League recruits at either ends of their career, with young Englishman (and star of the recent Test series against New Zealand) Elliott Whitehead about to embark on his first foray into the NRL, and veteran prop Jeff Lima to have one more run around after a number of years in the UK.
On the other side of the ledger, the now traditional Stuart roster overhaul that begun with the veteran coach’s arrival after the 2013 season continued this summer, as a further ten players departed the club. Incredibly, of the 30 players who played for the club in 2013, the last year before Stuart took over; only eight remain at the club.
However it’s worth noting that only one of this season’s departures, David Shillington, was a regular first grader in 2015.
Josh McCrone did begin the season in the top team but was soon dropped to NSW Cup, and then signed by the Dragons in one of the last things recruitment guru Peter Mulholland did before leaving the Dragons to join… You guessed it, the Raiders.
Of the rest, only Mark Nicholls and Jeremy Hawkins look like they may come back to haunt the club, having both moved to Melbourne, a team revered for their ability to extract the most out of their players.
Likely line-up
1. Jack Wighton
2. Edrick Lee
3. Jarrod Croker
4. Joey Leilua
5. Sisa Waqa
6. Blake Austin
7. Aidan Sezer
8. Frank-Paul Nuuasuala
9. Josh Hodgson
10. Paul Vaughan
11. Josh Papalii
12. Sia Soliola
13. Shaun Fensom
14. Adam Clydesdale
15. Elliot Whitehead
16. Jeff Lima
17. Shannon Boyd
This is largely the same team that closed this season in 2015, with only Sezer, Lima and Whitehead coming into the team, for Sam Williams, David Shillington and Jarrad Kennedy respectively.
Sezer will be hoping for an injury-free season after playing only 13 in 2014 and 18 in 2015. But the good news is that the numbers suggest Sezer will be an excellent complement in the halves to the techno-viking Austin. While not necessarily a pure playmaker – his seven try assists and seven line break assists are modest numbers for a halfback even when accounting for his reduced number of games – he is an outstanding game manager, with a particularly good kicking game, an area where Austin is not as strong.
Sezer’s arrival means Williams is relegated once more to NSW Cup despite a much improved season 2015. Still just 25 years old and coming off a season in which he has 15 try assists in just 16 games (a better per game rate than any halfback not named Johnathan Thurston), Williams will no doubt attract attention from other clubs if he continues to languish in reserve grade.
The back line is straightforward, and while Jordan Rapana can consider himself unlucky to be squeezed out, there is no position available for him. He and young wrecking ball Brenko Lee will have to content themselves with shredding NSW Cup opposition to begin the season.
The biggest selection battle is in the backrow, where English international Whitehead will initially compete with Jarrad Kennedy for a bench spot behind established starters Papalii, Shaun Fensom and the halfback assassin Sia Soliola. Kennedy, who was a mainstay in the team in 2015, will be under intense pressure to retain that spot and probably needs to figure out a way to consistently catch a short ball at the line to be a truly effective first grader.
Beyond those five contenders there is also Mitch Barnett, last year’s NSW Cup player of the year, and Luke Bateman, a power lock in the mould of Trent Merrin who has played in every age group Origin team for Queensland.
In addition to the players already on the roster, there are also persistent rumours that the Knights may release Joe Tapine a year early and allow him to take up his new deal in Canberra, which is currently slated to start in 2017. Tapine would only add to the selection challenge.
While Kennedy’s position in the team is the most under threat, don’t be surprised if Fensom also begins to fall under scrutiny. Renowned for his defensive work rate and toughness, Fensom sadly offers little in attack on a consistent basis. In an era where the lock position is increasingly filled with colossal ball runners like Jason Taumalalo or skilled ball players like Corey Parker, Fensom cuts a more modest figure. Whisper it, but if Fensom can’t find locate an elite attacking game he may come under the microscope as the season progresses.
Meanwhile, if the backrow is stacked the front row looks a little thin – if only figuratively (no front row that includes gentle giant Shannon Boyd could ever honestly be described as ‘thin’). With the departure of Shillington at the end of the year and the Ent Dane Tilse mid-season, the team will be relying on Boyd, Paul Vaughan and the two veterans Frank-Paul Nuuasuala and Lima, with little depth behind those four.
There were rumours that the club was chasing any number of players from James Tamou to Junior Paulo for 2016, but none of that has materialised. As such, if the club loses either Boyd or Vaughan for any significant period of time, they will likely struggle.
Player to watch: Jack Wighton
Wighton had a mixed 2015, as he adjusted to the fullback role after previously playing every other position in the backline over the course of his short career. After pinch hitting in at fullback towards the end of 2014, Wighton made the shift fulltime to begin 2015. He started brightly enough, with a man of the match performance in Round 1. However as the season went on he tended to drift in and out of games.
His running metres were generally solid, averaging a tick under 140 metres per game, but his overall attacking contribution in terms of tries scored and created, along with line breaks he either made himself or set up for others, was mid-pack among regular fullbacks.
But the ability is clearly there. Coaches who have come in contact with him in rep environments such as the Country team or emerging NSW camps rave about him. Stuart has been quoted as saying he wouldn’t trade him for any other fullback in the competition, and you need look no further than his wonderful performance in Townsville in Round 23 last year to see Wighton’s raw potential. Raiders fans will be hoping that in 2016 Wighton can deliver on that promise on a more consistent basis.
Predicted finish: Fringe of the eight
Overall the squad is better, despite the modest number of signings. Indeed, the relative stability of the top 17 will help as they incorporate a new halfback. If the big men stay healthy, Sezer gels quickly with his teammates, and Wighton takes the leap that he is clearly capable of, this team could make some noise.
However depth in the front row is a large (pun intended) problem, and the reality is that the team’s defence was at times horrendous in 2016. Moreover, the teams around them on the ladder have all largely improved as well.
The team certainly has the talent to make the eight, and may even surprise a la the Panthers of 2014, but it is too early to lock them into a top-eight spot.
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