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The final of this year’s Super Rugby competition will be held on August 6. What are the realistic chances of any of the Australian teams lifting the trophy?
Right now, just before the season gets underway, you’ll get close to the following odds with the various betting agencies.
• Brumbies 8-1
• New South Wales Waratahs 9-1
• Melbourne Rebels 34-1
• Queensland Reds 41-1
• Western Force 67-1
Let’s take a look at why the bookmakers have arrived at these odds.
Brumbies
The Brumbies finished second in the 2015 Australian Conference of the Super Rugby competition, behind the Waratahs. They won nine and lost seven in the regular season, placing them sixth in the overall competition standings. They then upset the third placed Stormers in a qualifying final before eventually bowing out in the semi-finals to the Hurricanes.
The Brumbies will be hoping Argentinian international Tomas Cubelli will be able to slot in at scrum-half easily, replacing Wallaby Nic White who has headed to France. Coach Stephen Larkham is in his third season in charge, and has recently elevated centre Christian Lealiifano to become co-captain alongside Wallaby hooker and captain Stephen Moore for 2016.
The Brumbies are traditionally solid Super Rugby performers and along with the Waratahs they will be leading the Australian charge in the 2016 competition. Besides Lealiifano and Moore, the Brumbies squad contains Wallaby stars David Pocock, Matt Toomua and Tevita Kuridrani.
New South Wales Waratahs
Super Rugby champions in 2014 and beaten semi-finalists in 2015, the Waratahs have a new head coach for the 2016 season in Daryl Gibson. He replaces Michael Cheika, who will now be focusing all his coaching efforts on the Wallabies.
The Waratahs will be captained by Wallaby flanker Michael Hooper and with the likes of fellow Wallabies Wycliff Palu, Nick Phipps, Bernard Foley, Kurtley Beale and Israel Folau in their line-up, they should again be around when the proverbial whips are cracking in the 2016 competition.
Melbourne Rebels
The Rebels finished a creditable 10th in 2015, the best result in their short five-year history, but realistically it’s hard to see them doing much better in 2016. They will likely be competitive at best. The team will be led by co-captains Scott Fuglistaller and Scott Higginbotham, and coached by Tony McGahan in what will be his fourth year at the helm.
Queensland Reds
Being a Queenslander myself it pains me to say it, but I think the Red’s odds of 41-1 are accurate. Who would have thought a few years ago that a Reds team would be bigger outsiders at the start of a Super Rugby season than the Rebels?
The Reds performed poorly in 2015, finishing 13th. Will Genia, Quade Cooper and James O’Connor are three high profile backline departures for 2016, leaving the Reds line-up on paper looking like they will struggle to score points. Wallaby prop and Reds skipper James Slipper will also miss the first half of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery.
I think it will be a long season of rebuilding for the Reds.
Western Force
The Force were wooden spooners in 2015, so the only way is up. In their ten-year history, their best result has been seventh way back in 2007. The team will be led by Matt Hodgson, and coached by former Wallaby hooker Michael Foley. Odds of 67-1 might seem harsh, but they are realistic.
What are your predictions for the Australian teams in 2016?
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.