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Oh yes, there’s no better way than to start previewing the first weekend of Super Rugby than to put some tips down on paper and making judgements.
In 2016, I’ve kind of put the band back together, recalling my Rugby World Cup
Big Questions’ colleagues extraordinaire, Harry Jones and Diggercane. Of course, The Roar’s Editor, Paddy Effeney loves a good tipping panel, so he’s in as well.
There’s plenty of familiarity around the panel in 2016, but we’re doing a few things differently too. For one thing, we’ve done away with Powerplays. What did they really achieve, anyway?
More:
» Dan Vickerman on the David Pocock conundrum
» 2016 Super Rugby team lists
» Vote: Who will win Super Rugby in 2016
» Super Rugby expert tips are back!
» Melbourne Rebels preview
» Reds preview
The big ticket item is a little further down the page – crowd tipping. Each week, we want you guys to lodge your votes for each game, and we’ll then compile them and around 2pm (Australian east coast time) each Friday, we’ll announce The Crowd’s Tips as voted by you, and as scored alongside the experts. Should be good fun to compare general consensus against the expert’s reasoning each week.
(Subject to The Crowd doing exceptionally well, and the four of us less so, obviously…)
And keep an eye out in the coming weeks, too, when we’ll start tackling The Big Super Rugby Question each week.
Paddy, lead us off…
Paddy Effeney: “With my only research being about squads, last year’s form, this year’s trial form and overall structure of coaching and playing groups, I’m not sure how well placed I am to be telling anyone who to tip. But here goes nothing.
“I like the look of the new Blues, but feel like the Highlanders are high on life and victory, so will get up in a tightish one. The Canes’ trial form is undoubtedly impressive, so I’m going for two away wins on Friday night.
“Let’s say the Cheetahs over the Jaguares. To be honest I have no idea what the Jaguares will bring this year, so it just seems safe.
“Can a Japanese team upset another South African team? No. No they can’t. Lions. I like the Chiefs, and don’t like the Reds, so Waratahs to win in a blowout. I’m a Rebel at heart, so let’s take them, and what I’ve heard about the Kings doesn’t seem conducive to beating the Sharks, so I’ll take Durban over Port Elizabeth. Stormers will round it out in style, and we’ll all be very tired by the time Sunday morning, but thankful that rugby is back.”
Tips: Highlanders, Hurricanes, Cheetahs, Lions, Chiefs, Waratahs, Rebels, Sharks, Stormers.
Diggercane: “Blues for me first up. The emotion of Umaga’s first official game in charge and playing at Eden Park will be enough for this young team as I expect them to start strongly and fade away towards the end. I am backing the Jaguares to get their first ever win in their first ever game, and the Lions to get over the top of a disrupted Sunwolves.
“The Waratahs should be too much for the Reds in Sydney while I will back the Force at home over the Rebels. A Lambie-less Sharks should still be too strong for the Kings, while the Stormers should clean up over a Pollard-less Bulls.
“Chiefs and Crusaders? Arrgh, Crusaders never seem to win their first up match but surely they will be pretty sore over their last pre-season hit out. Dunno; going to say Chiefs because of the Cruden factor.
“And in the important match, the Brumbies look a solid and settled outfit and surely must be a warm favourite for the Oz conference. Always tough to play in Canberra, are the Ponies. So, I am going to have to say ‘Canes by plenty.”
Tips: Blues, Hurricanes, Jaguares, Lions, Chiefs, Waratahs, Force, Sharks, Stormers.
Harry Jones: “Tana Umaga will need more time to teach his young halves decision-making than the tough Highlanders will give him; another discouraging Blue loss at Fortress Eden.
“The most-settled squad in the competition, the international-filled Brumbies, will use the pace of Tomas Cubelli to add a new dimension in Canberra.
“The World Cup semi-finalists will wreck the Cheetahs because the Bloemfontein boys don’t tackle. The Lions will start well, because they always start well; and Tokyo is Johannesburg without the crime.
“Dave Rennie’s Chiefs are too young to win in Christchurch this weekend, but they have been the best team in Super Rugby over the last four seasons and will come right by the end.
“The Sharks are playing an amateur beer league team in P.E, and the Bulls refuse to pay injured wunderkind Handre Pollard, so Karma and the Stormers pack (the only players getting paid in South Africa) will punish their greed.”
Tips: Highlanders, Brumbies, Jaguares, Lions, Crusaders, Waratahs, Rebels, Sharks, Stormers.
Brett McKay: Right then, how hard can this be?
I’m sticking to my guns that the Highlanders should be outright favourites in 2016, so I can hardly pick the Blues, can I? And because I’m looking forward to sending a certain Kiwi a gloaty text message on Friday night, the Brumbies is similarly easy.
I’m a sucker for new teams, so Jaguares (say it with me, “HA-GUAR-ES”!) and Sunwolves it is. Also, I want Tuesday’s column to have been worthwhile.
In Christchurch, I have one hashtag for you: #GoChefs.
@PatrickEffeney Three years on, it's still funny… #GoChefs pic.twitter.com/9OdrLTVwPY
— Brett McKay (@BMcSport) May 7, 2015
The ‘Tahs will be too good for the Reds, with a new-fangled ‘Three More Tries Than The Other Lot Bonus Point’ (TMTTTOLBP) a very real possibility. And there’s a whisper that Nic Stirzaker may not be quite right after his offseason shoulder surgery, so that, plus a healthy benefit of the doubt to the Force about their “we really are playing more expansively this year, promise” sees that tip heading west. And then Sharks and Stormers.
Tips: Highlanders, Brumbies, Jaguares, Sunwolves, Chiefs, Waratahs, Force, Sharks, Stormers.
The Summary
| Round 1 | Diggercane | Patrick Effeney | Harry Jones | Brett McKay | The Crowd | |||
| BLU v HIG | Blues | Highlanders | Highlanders | Highlanders | Highlanders | |||
| BRU v HUR | Hurricanes | Hurricanes | Brumbies | Brumbies | Brumbies | |||
| CHE v JAG | Jaguares | Cheetahs | Jaguares | Jaguares | Jaguares | |||
| SUN v LIO | Lions | Lions | Lions | Sunwolves | Lions | |||
| CRU v CHI | Chiefs | Chiefs | Crusaders | Chiefs | Chiefs | |||
| WAR v RED | Waratahs | Waratahs | Waratahs | Waratahs | Waratahs | |||
| FOR v REB | Force | Rebels | Rebels | Force | Force | |||
| KIN v SHA | Sharks | Sharks | Sharks | Sharks | Sharks | |||
| STO v BUL | Stormers | Stormers | Stormers | Stormers |
The Crowd has spoken..
Tips closed at 2pm AEDT on Friday, just hours before the season kicks off, and it’s fair to say that The Crowd sees clear favourites in all nine games. Our thanks to all of you, for the almost 400 votes lodged – the final breakdown was:
Highlanders (77.4%)
Brumbies (72.3%)
Jaguares (79%)
Lions (76.2%)
Chiefs (78.5%)
Waratahs (95.2%)
Force (62.3%)
Sharks (95.7%)
Stormers (92.2%)