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Wow. It’s too early in the season to worry, but I am a little worried about Australia’s Super Rugby teams.
Eight days into the competition proper and already fatal flaws have been exposed in four of the five teams, leaving me with little hope any of them will have much to say come the latter rounds of the season.
Could you see any of the Waratahs, Rebels, Force or Reds making a semi-final this year? Already, the Brumbies are the best and, if we’re honest, Australia’s only hope of representation.
Let’s start with the two teams that participated in what can only be described as a stain on the good name of rugby on Saturday night – the Reds and Force. We aren’t going to call what they did a match or a game are we? That would be too polite.
Richard Graham, who was in charge of the more losing (22-6) Reds, was fired in the aftermath. Statistics, combined with the uninspiring level of play of his team thus far this season suggest Michael Foley, coach of the slightly less-losing on the weekend Western Force, should be let go as well.
During the broadcast of that stain, far enough into the game that things were already bleak (I was checking work emails on a Saturday night), one of the commentators read out the career winning stats for both coaches.
Graham had a 28 per cent winning rate in Super Rugby, while Foley’s is 31 per cent. Between them they have 11 years of coaching in Super Rugby.
How do two coaches continue for so long in charge of 40 per cent of our national provincial rugby teams while performing so poorly?
Last year we may have been collectively too distracted by the World Cup to seriously consider the ramifications of such a situation. This year it has become clear that both squads have declined considerably and wasting time is wasting talent.
In 2016, the Reds roster is in a complete state of disrepair, and the Force are still a group of journeymen, galvanised by a stronger few. It is easy to say that players have left and no stars have chosen to sign with either, but wouldn’t more players chose to stay if they were excited and inspired by their mentors and felt like their game would improve?
In the wake of Graham’s sacking this week, Reds CEO Jim Carmichael said the message from the coach “wasn’t getting through”, which is one of the great clichés in sport.
However, the real error here was re-signing Graham after an at worst sham, at best poorly run, worldwide search. The clear facts were the Reds had fallen off a cliff since Graham took over, the roster had stagnated, and there was no sign of turn around. Yet Queensland wasted a precious off-season of renewal, and the loss of a top player such as Liam Gill may be directly connected to that poor decision.
Foley is in a different category. Things aren’t as dire at the Force, but it is clear that the ‘rinse repeat’ model of work hard and flood the breakdown that has been used for a number of years hasn’t worked. The Perth franchise had one strong year under Foley, finishing eighth with nine wins in 2014, but plummeted back to last place in 2015. They won’t collect another wooden spoon this season, but finishing even as high as eighth looks beyond them.
A new vision, new strategy and new personnel is the best bet for the Force. An uptick in performance and a new head coach may bring a few better players and make better use of the talent available already.
The Waratahs’ depth was one of the squad’s weaknesses leading into the season, and it is already being tested.
Bryce Hegarty, a squad five-eighth who gives depth for Bernard Foley and Kurtley Beale (who may have to play some fullback), is out for the year with a ruptured ACL.
Tatafu Polota-Nau, by far the best front-row forward in the squad, is out for six to eight weeks after undergoing surgery to insert a plate and correct what seemed to be a broken arm. The Waratahs were extremely lucky (cough, stacked the committee, cough) their second hooker, Tolu Latu, received a one-week suspension for striking, which conveniently lined up with the team’s bye week. But Latu is a serious step down from Polota-Nau and that front row needs solidity in the scrum.
Rob Horne could also be out, which has led to talk of Israel Folau finally lining up at outside centre. And that would be lovely except at a time of weakness they’d be moving their best player away from his best and most comfortable position.
The Waratahs’ 30-10 loss confirmed they are a full step below the Brumbies. But, more acutely, there was only one point during that match where it really looked like the Waratahs had a path to victory. (Path to victory – I think you’re meant to follow that phrase with a discussion of Ohio and Florida primary votes and a brokered convention?)
The loss followed an easy victory over the Reds that should have been a resounding flogging if the Waratahs were the real deal, based on the lowly state of the Queensland outfit at the moment.
They may not fade as badly as the Reds or Force but the Waratahs would need a remarkable run of injury luck, some superhuman performances from Foley, Folau, Beale and Michael Hooper, and more to really be a threat this year.
Ahh the Rebels. So much early hope. But a small victory against the Force hardly looks amazing now does it? And they started playing rugby against the Bulls once they fell down 42-10.
In a team with so many young players and an environment of striving, not comfortable, excellence, the Rebels are going to feel their injuries this year as well. Colby Fainga’a will miss six weeks with an elbow injury and Mike Harris will be out for up to three months with a quad strain. Scott Fuglistaller, the team’s other specialist on-ball flanker, is out for a few more weeks as well.
Their young captain, Nic Stirzaker, might play only his first game this weekend. He is coming back from a shoulder reconstruction, which is susceptible to re-injury and can take a long time to be 100 per cent (I’d know, I’ve had one). Cam Crawford was struggling with a hamstring injury as well.
It’s not impossible to overcome this list and improve throughout a long season. But the Rebels will likely fall further behind before they catch up and struggle for inconsistency as combinations change.
I won’t spend much time on the Brumbies, except to say: we’re counting on you.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.