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It’s harder to know what would be causing the most angst: that The Crowd are now not even as good as Diggercane, or that Paddy is again as bad as me.
It was a bit of a rough one last week, tipping wise, with a couple of unanimous tips coming undone in spectacular fashion, and the Kings putting in their best performance of the season to date to notch their first win of 2016, sweeping aside the Sunwolves in the process.
This week, strangely, we have three Australian teams taking a break on the same weekend, right at the time when arguments are taking place about the relative strengths or weaknesses of the local conference. Draws are complicated beasts to sort out, but this seems like the sort of thing that should be avoided.
Maybe we should introduce bye weeks into the tipping panel? Writing that idea down, actually…
Digger’s win last week sees him carry the honour this week, while we’re back to Harry for this week’s Big Super Rugby Question.
EVERY SUPER RUGBY GAME, LIVE ON FOXTEL
Last Week: Digger 5; Harry, Brett and The Crowd 4; Paddy 3.
Diggercane: “This week seems so straightforward that it makes me incredibly nervous.
“Canes by plenty. Chiefs are too red hot to ignore, while the Crusade will not be impeded by the Force.
“Stormers should make hotdogs of the dawgs while the Highlanders should have too much for the Reds.
“I am favouring the Lions’ more ambitious play over the Sharks and the Bulls will account for the Kings’ winning streak.”
Tips: Chiefs, Crusaders, Stormers, Hurricanes, Highlanders, Lions, Bulls.
Harry Jones: “First, the 100 per cent take-it-to-the-bank picks: the Stormers will maul the Sunwolves in Cape Town, and the Reds will fail to quell the Highlanders’ Jacobite assault.
“Second, the picks I’m sure enough to bet the bike on: the Chiefs will win again, this time at home, with their smirking hair-on-fire points machine, and the Crusaders’ pack will roll over the feckless Force.
“Finally, the games I’d wager a buck on. The Bulls’ backline speed will compensate for their young and feeble forwards. The Canes should squeak past the powerful but unhappy Jags. And the Sharks and Lions will go to war with my little voice telling me to go with the Lions.”
Tips: Chiefs, Crusaders, Stormers, Hurricanes, Highlanders, Lions, Bulls.
Brett McKay: It does indeed seem like an easy round, and that does indeed make me nervous.
But here’s something that may not have ever happened in the short history of the tipping panel: no-one’s picked an Australian side. Sentiment isn’t enough to sway me, for the record, but checking back over the panel picks last year, neither Digger, Paddy, or myself went without picking an Australian team during the rounds.
The first five games pretty much pick themselves, and I can’t imagine there will be any small majorities in any of The Crowd picks, either.
The Sharks have maintained their Africa 2 conference lead, but I think they’ve become increasingly underwhelming in recent weeks. The Lions, on the other hand, have proved they can run with the best teams in the competition, and I think they’ll confirm they’re actually the best team in their conference this weekend.
And in something of an upset, I think the Kings can beat the Bulls. As Harry mentioned, the Bulls’ pack is lacking in several departments, and this has been the big avenue of improvement for the Kings in the last fortnight. And yes, I do note the irony of this tip: if I’m right, then the Kings will be the first expansion side with two wins in 2016.
Tips: Chiefs, Crusaders, Stormers, Hurricanes, Highlanders, Lions, Kings.
Paddy Effeney: “It’s a relatively simple round until you get to Sharks versus Lions. Most teams pick themselves, and the men from Durban get the home team nod from me.
“May I ask why three Aussie teams get a bye in one week? Seems a rather odd decision?”
Brett’s note: It’s a very good question…
Tips: Chiefs, Crusaders, Stormers, Hurricanes, Highlanders, Sharks, Bulls.
The Big Super Rugby Question (from Harry): Can the loser this week in Wellington still make it into the playoffs? Are the disappointing Jaguares and the misfiring Hurricanes at the must-not-lose point already?
Harry: “I say that the New Zealand Conference and the Australasian Group is too competitive for the Canes to drop this game in the Cake Tin. I don’t know if four New Zealand teams will make it, but the teams from Hamilton, Christchurch, and Dunedin don’t look like fading soon.
“So it’s do-or-die time for the home team and I say that’s true for the visitors, too, because their morale is plummeting.”
Digger: “Yes, both sides are disappointing, and cannot afford another loss. The Jaguares have already dropped too many while the Hurricanes risk falling well behind the pace in their own conference.
“With their overseas portion to come, they cannot afford any home losses and even more so after rivals the Chiefs and Crusaders have been on successful tours.”
Paddy: “Whether or not either side can afford another loss, one will be dealt this weekend. My view is the Jaguares can wipe this season – build from here.
“The Canes are OK. Teams have come back from worse.”
Brett: The Hurricanes can lose this weekend, but the Jaguares can’t. Both teams have played five games in the first six rounds, but the Canes have won three to the Jags’ one. And if there’s already concern about the Waratahs making the playoffs from here with a 2-3 record, then the Jaguares with 1-4 are gone already. The Hurricanes are fine; both the Highlanders and Waratahs were 3-2 after their first five games.
Both teams have a string of home games to come, too – and we know from 2015 that teams get better at home the further the season goes on. And while both teams also have a tricky African tour to come before the end of May, the Jaguares have an even trickier New Zealand and Japan tour to finish currently.
The shame in this is that like a lot of people, I thought the Jaguares would give the playoffs a serious nudge. They’ll have to become the most disciplined, least butter-fingered, stiffest-defending, clearest decision-making team in the competition from here for that to happen now.
The summary
The Crowd’s tips for Round 7:
95% Chiefs
88% Crusaders
93% Stormers
89% Hurricanes
88% Highlanders
53% Lions
86% Bulls