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Jimmy's best AFL bets: Round 6

Suns player Gary Ablett. (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
Roar Pro
28th April, 2016
13
1116 Reads

It’s Round 6 already? North Melbourne are sitting on first, Jarrad Waite is a dominant forward in the AFL, and Fremantle are dead last. How are we supposed to tip anything at this point?

But here we go.

North Melbourne versus Western Bulldogs
The two up-and-coming darlings of the league face of at the Bulldog’s home, Etihad Stadium. Or is it the Roos home? Not entirely sure…

Believe it or not, it’ been four years since the Bulldogs graced the turf for some Friday night football, which is surprising considering some of the horrible displays we’ve all had to sit through after a hard work week. Richmond has already had three Fridays so far in 2016, cue the adjustment for 2017, AFL.

The Kangaroos are sitting at the top of the ladder 5-0, and are still flying under the radar. It’s still early days, but a win here may add some belief to the non-believers, who still think that the rise of Jarrad Waite and company is an early season aberration. If they can get over the Dogs, who have won 13 of their last 14 at Etihad, I’ll join the believers, until the inevitable mid-year crumbling happens. There’s still no flags in May from memory.

The Doggies lead the league in disposals with 454.2 per game, with the Kangaroos at 12th with 363.8.

It was way back in 2001 when these two last met on a Friday night, and the odds are telling us to float towards the Bulldogs at a healthy little line. At $2.05 the Western Bulldogs are pretty good value, even with the losses of Robert Murphy and Jason Johannisen to the backline structure.

Best Bet: Western Bulldogs +18.5 at $1.41

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Melbourne versus St Kilda
The Demons are playing the tough, attacking brand of footy that supporters have been dreaming of for a decade, and with the long awaited debut of Christian Petracca, it only gets better.

Petracca makes his first appearance since being drafted at No.2 back in 2014. A knee reconstruction following a pre-season injury, and a broken toe over the Christmas break while trying to throw down a dunk in his driveway slowed pushed back the arrival, but now the Truck can only add to Melbourne’s tough bodied midfield of Nathan Jones, Jack Viney and Bernie Vince.

The Dees haven’t won three in a row since 2010, and the bookies think it will happen this week with a $1.55 favourites price tag on Melbourne.

The centre square is where the action will take place, with former Domino’s employee come premier ruckman Max Gawn looking to towel up St Kilda’s ‘bits-and-pieces’ ruckman Tom Hickey.

For the Saints sake I hope that ruck coach Adam Skrobalak is giving Hickey the “you’ll be right mate” smile and nod, while midfield coach Adam Kingsley pulls David Armitage and Jack Steven aside to show them the finer points of sharking an opposition ruckman.

If the Saints small brigade can use their speed and linking handball through the middle like they did against the Pies and Hawthorn, expect a close encounter. Melbourne haven’t beaten St Kilda since 2007, and with what little streaks the Saints have up their sleeve, this one may be mentioned in the pre-game for a little extra spur.

With the Demons woeful record at Etihad, one win out of their last 23, a generous line for the $2.45 Saints here looks promising.

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Best Bet: St Kilda +25.5 at $1.40

Adelaide versus Fremantle
This trip to Adelaide Oval is exactly what the Dockers don’t need right now. With the loss of Fyfe and with an 0-5 record, the Dockers will likely leave South Australia 0-6, and that ladies and gentlemen will be the end of their 2016 finals campaign.

The Crows are playing much better than their ladder position of ninth suggests, and a 3-point loss to Hawthorn last Friday night thanks to the fellas with the whistles (cue countless memes) should have left them at 4-1 come Saturday morning. Their gameplan of free-flowing, pinpoint possession is one of the best to watch in the league, and will be very hard to stop for a Dockers side that is currently -31.8 in the +/- points column.

It will take something pretty special for the Dockers to get over the line here, and possibly to even reach the line of +52.5 that’s on offer.

This game is not a great one for a tip, so this one will definitely not be in the best bets, although the +52.5 line for the Dockers is tempting, with a few points added on for “security”.

Best Bet: Fremantle +65.5 at $1.47

Greater Western Sydney versus Hawthorn
After two straight wins over the Saints and Port Adelaide, the Giants will be walking back into Spotless Stadium with a little bit of swagger, and they’ll need it against the Hawks, who come in with four straight wins and $1.60 favourites.

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Last time out against the Hawks, Jeremy Cameron kicked seven goals in a win, and they will need him to repeat those heroics this time around to keep the Hawks backline in check. The Hawks continue to get it done, without blowing anybody out, and their +5.0 points difference so far in 2016 shows how close their results have been.

Cyril Rioli and Paul Puopolo have been in fine form up forward, with nine goals between them last week in a three-point win over the Crows. The Giants will need to be blanket them here if they are to push for a result.

The Giants are running at a +23.5 ppg in the +/- points difference this year, and a healthy line for them is looking tempting here with the Hawks struggling to score as prolifically as they have in the past. Tipping a close one.

Best Bet: GWS +15.5 at $1.59

Richmond versus Port Adelaide
The best news that will come from this one for the winner is that they will be free of media coverage for the seven days following. For the loser, it will be a different story.

The good news for the Tigers is that they will get a chance to find some form on their home turf, which also makes a loss for them ten times worse, however. With Alex Rance out for two after a right elbow to the bonce of Jack Watts last weekend, it gives Charlie Dixon the opportunity to find some form up forward for the Power after visiting Struggletown over the last few.

The Power are ranking 18th for marks inside 50, with only 8 per game, but we are tipping it will double this weekend.

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The likes of Travis Boak, Robbie Gray and Chad Wingard don’t stay down for long – though Gray and Wingard are out, so maybe adjust your tips, fellas – and you can be sure that they will be licking their lips this weekend at the prospect of facing a Richmond outfit in their current form.

The undermanned Tigers must respond in front of the Black and Yellow army, or else it could be the case of another year gone. Given Port’s outs, they look promising here.

Best Bet: Richmond 1-39 at $2.15

Geelong versus Gold Coast
After failing to make the finals last year finishing 10th, the fourth-placed Cats are bringing some cheer back to The Cattery. The arrival of the new mayor of Geelong Patrick Dangerfield (sorry Lingy) gave the Cats supporters the head wobble they were looking for in the preseason, and so far it has translated into some early season form.

Geelong come in as firm $1.10 favourites, with the Suns at a whopping $7.00, which is a little surprising, however Cats at home are perennial short favourites, even disregarding current form, and the Suns are undermanned.

The Suns backline is still without Steven May (5 weeks suspension for attempted murder), and Rory Thompson with an ankle. Dion Prestia won’t make the trip to Simmonds with a shoulder injury, which will allow Dangerfield and Selwood (38 touches against the Suns last time out) to run a little more freely through the midfield.

Big Tom Lynch leads the race to the Coleman with 22 goals, but may not find the supply as easy to come across at The Cattery, while up at the other end Tom Hawkins with 14 goals in 2016 should have plenty of opportunity to close the gap.

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Watch also for the return of the SOG Gary Ablett, who knows this ground like the back of his hand, and is perhaps worth a put on first goal at $15.00.

The Cats should win here comfortably, but the $1.10 odds aren’t worth the risk in any shape or form.

Best Bet: Gold Coast +65.5 at $1.40

Brisbane versus Sydney
It doesn’t get any easier for the Lions. This week marks the sixth time they face a team currently in the top 8 (already played the current top 4). With most of their guns out on the track, form isn’t the issue, it’s the fact that their draw has been the toughest this year so far.

The Swans flexed their muscles against the Eagles with an all mighty 88-49 display, with Buddy making the team a legitimate threat again. The Academy boys in Callum Mills and Isaac Heeney continue to impress while Luke Parker has become an early Brownlow favourite. It’s funny to think how the Swans were tipped to possibly slide with such big names still on the list and in good form.

The one weakness against Adelaide in round 4 was round was the defence. Ted Richards is out this week with a cheekbone, which will require a little rejig down back, but with the way the Lions are leaking defensively, this should be a field day up forward for the Swannies.

The Lions are still a very young group and will struggle against the bigger bodies of the experienced Sydney team.

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Best Bet: Sydney -19.5 at $1.44

Carlton versus Essendon
Prior to preseason, the Blues were slapped with the ‘Wooden Spoon favourites’ tag even after the WADA findings at Essendon. Although from their performances in Round 1 and following games, the doubters have been slightly silenced.

Carlton didn’t play a perfect game but did more than enough to get the away win against Freo. Leaders in Bryce Gibbs and Marc Murphy carried the load while our man Liam Jones was the match winner with the goal to put them ahead. The Bolton style of football has made the Blues very competitive but I won’t be sold on Carlton this week that easily… Fremantle were insipid.

Although only turning up for forty minutes on Anzac Day, the Bombers did turn the corner after half time outscoring the Pies in the second half. With the potential inclusions of Ryan Crowley, James Polkinghorne and Jonathan Simpkin, the Bombers have added some mature bodies to counter the Carlton run.

Carlton are our pick based on their impressive win in WA, with the Bombers’ inconsistency (which is expected) being the difference.

Best Bet: Carlton 1-39 at $2.05

West Coast versus Collingwood
The hot pies with the flying American are on a high after the Anzac Day victory. Mason Cox couldn’t have had a better start to a career slotting a goal with his first kick. This week he gets to meet Nic Naitanui’s knee. Not writing off Essendon’s overall effort but the game was decided in the first half where Collingwood did most of the damage. The midfield clicked from the get go with Steele Sidebottom, Scott Pendlebury and Adam Treloar firing.

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The tough part this week will be testing their new found form against last season’s runners up, with two days less rest than the Eagles.

The Eagles got completely shut down in Sydney last round with many questions stemming from their 2015 grand final loss, with the engine room of Chris Masten, Andrew Gaff and Luke Shuey going missing in the big ones. Priddis can still hold his head up high, but the Eagles midfield is lacking compared to some of the early season front-runners.

However, the Eagles aren’t easily beaten in the West, defeating the Pies 11 out of the last 15 games, although with Collingwood notoriously being left of out the trip to Domain Stadium by the fixturing Gods, their most recent trip was a win back in 2014 by 60 points.

West Coast love a big score at Domain Stadium with the tall pillars at both ends to be the difference.

Best Bet: West Coast Total Points Over 117.5 at $1.88

Good luck fellas!

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