Round 10 was one of the most frustrating tipping rounds I can recall.
The Raiders through Jack Wighton quite literally threw away any chance of a victory over the Dragons, despite leading 20-6 the Eels capitulated against Souths, the Cowboys were upset to the tune of 1 point against the Storm, and the Roosters were duded the chance of closing out their match against the Titans with a brilliant try being denied by a ridiculous obstruction interpretation.
Suffice to say my tips suffered on all these accounts. Here’s looking forward to a stronger round this week!
Last week’s tips – 3/8, running tip total – 47/80 (4.7 per week).
Souths vs Dragons
Souths surprised many in Round 10. While they were indeed desperate themselves having lost their previous four matches, the Eels had endured the week from hell and had every reason to produce their gutsiest performance in years.
That appeared to be the case for roughly the first hour before the Eels clocked off and Souths woke up. For Souths the key was not Greg Inglis shifting to five-eighthh rather more shifting to the centres when Luke Keary was introduced.
As much as Keary played well, Inglis’ shift to the centres gave the team a legitimate attacking option on the edges while Alex Johnston at fullback actually showed some intent and purpose that Inglis’ performances at fullback have lacked this season.
Expect Cody Walker to share some time at fullback with Johnson and for Inglis to shift to the centres at some point in the match. Repeating this formula should produce a repeat result gaining the two points.
The Dragons were gifted two points courtesy of a Jack Wighton brain explosion. It wasn’t just the final pass that was stupid however, Wighton had the chance to take the tackle two passes earlier in the play when he brought the ball back as the siren sounded. Dumb is an understatement.
The coastal boys were solid without being spectacular against Canberra and this week will be missing Benji Marshall. That’s neither here nor there. Josh McCrone is an inferior player but at least he plays straight to the line.
Souths have won seven of the past ten against the Dragons, the Red V enjoying success in Round 3 this year when a torrential downpour played into their defensive hands.
Tip: Souths 1-12
Cowboys vs Broncos
This is the blockbuster match of the season.
The Cowboys went down to the Storm in Round 10 by a brilliant Cameron Smith field goal, prior to that they had won five on the trot with their last defeat coming at the hands of the Broncos who were keen to exact some ironic grand final revenge by defeating the boys from Townsville 21-20.
The Broncos returned to winning form thrashing the Sea Eagles 30-6 in Round 10 after enduring a loss to the Sharks in Round 9. This week they welcome back representative duo Adam Blair and Alex Glenn, and industrious hooker Andrew McCullough.
Interestingly these two sides have traded wins and losses since the 2014 finals series, a 3-3 record for Brisbane and North Queensland. Given the interesting form guides that have been appearing in 2016 (namely through the Panthers and Dogs) the rugby league gods are suggesting it is the Cowboys turn to win and at 1300 Smiles Stadium it’s hard not to back them.
Tip: Cowboys 1-12
Tigers vs Knights
After an appalling performance against the Dogs, the Tigers will be looking to make amends. Fortunately it seems Jason Taylor has finally made his first alteration of the season that was not forced through injury, dropping the perennially under-performing Curtis Sironen with impressive young prop JJ Felise offered a bench spot and the equally impressive Josh Aloiai shifting to an edge forward where he was incredibly damaging against the Warriors in Round 1.
Matt Ballin will also make his club debut from the bench which could be just the ticket for the Tigers given the fact that Luke Brooks, Mitchell Moses and Robbie Farah tend to enact the ‘too many cooks spoil the broth’ notion.
This is the most important game for the Tigers this season, it’s a game everyone expects them to win and ultimately their finals hopes are over if they loose – there is much to play for in this one.
I will start with my usual introduction for the Knights – this is the worst team I have seen since South’s readmission into the competition. They were dismal against the Sharks, the worst part about that 62-0 defeat was that it wasn’t brought about due to a lack of effort.
The only way I can possibly see the Knights winning this one is out of pride, given that teams typically respond well the following match to being thrashed in such a fashion and if there were any team to do it against it would be the incredibly frustrating Tigers.
Tip: Tigers 1-12
Warriors vs Raiders
The Warriors offered a more focused showing against the Panthers in Round 10, the only problem was that the Panthers were excellent for the full 80. Working in the Warriors favour is the return of inspirational lock Simon Mannering, the gradual return to form of Issac Luke and the fact that this is a New Zealand-based match.
The Raiders, or more specifically Jack Wighton, produced one of the biggest brain explosions in living memory quite literally throwing the match to the Dragons. If I were Ricky Stuart I would be dropping Wighton for sheer stupidity, shifting Jordan Rapana to fullback and offering the incredible Kato Ottio a debut.
That being said the Raiders are a quality football team with strike power across the paddock and they welcome back Jeff Lima, which is always a positive.
The Warriors have won their past five against the boys from Canberra and in their home country should make it six straight.
Tip: Warriors: 1-12
Sharks vs Sea Eagles
The Sharkies are in red hot form at the moment and completely deserve their equal top of the table placement. In their last two matches they have scored 92 points including a 62-0 drubbing of Newcastle in Round 10 and a victory against the seemingly unstoppable Broncos in Round 9, for this match they welcome back Jayson Bukuya while David Fifita has been added as 18th man which demonstrates the incredible depth they possess in 2016.
The Sea Eagles continue to underperform in 2016. On paper this is a side that should be pushing for the top four but the reality is far different. Exacerbating problems is the ongoing injury concerns of Brett Stewart and the week-by-week increasing grubbiness of Marty Taupau who now finds himself serving a 3-week suspension.
The Sharks traditionally struggle against their big brother from the Northern Beaches, they have won just one of the last nine against Manly, the past seven matches have all gone to the maroon and whites. But don’t underestimate the form the Sharks are in and the absence of Brett Stewart. Tom Trbojevic is a super talent but he is no ‘Snake’, at least not yet.
Tip: Sharks 1-12
Panthers vs Titans
The Panthers are finally coming good on the promise they have shown all season. I have written several times that this is a seriously good footy team who consistently pushes their opposition for the full 80. While the departure of Ivan Clearly was a shock to everyone, credit needs to go to Anthony Griffin (and for that matter Phil Gould) because their week to week consistency is a sign of good coaching.
The Panthers have now won three of their last five, their only two losses in that period coming against the Sharks by just two points and the Cowboys by five points. That suggests they are in excellent form.
The Titans continue to surprise plenty this season and now find themselves closer to pushing for a finals position as opposed to battling for the spoon. They were gifted a lucky officiating break against the Roosters at a crucial time on Monday night but to their credit took full advantage of the circumstances.
The biggest point of interest for this match will be the club debut of Eels sacrificial lamb Nathan Peats.
The Panthers have won six of their past nine against the Titans but I am predicting this one will be a close and potentially high scoring encounter.
Tip: Panthers 1-12
Bulldogs vs Roosters
The Bulldogs will again be without Will Hopoate due to this match occurring on a Sunday. They were rampant at times against the Tigers but still failed to string together a dominant minute-to-minute performance. That will be the task for Round 11.
The Roosters showed weak mental resolve on Monday night in Round 11, a dubious obstruction call that denied them a crucial try saw them dip their heads and allow the Titans to pile on 18 unanswered points in quick succession from that point.
For the Canterburry-Bankstown club getting themselves out of their win loss and repeat rut will be paramount moving ahead, their last set of consecutive wins came in Rounds 1 and 2.
The Roosters have won seven of their last ten against the Dogs.
Tip: Dogs 1-12
Eels vs Storm
Close but no cigar was the case for Parramatta in Round 10 as the Rabbitohs pipped them at the post. It’s hard not to think that the late fade was not due in part to the absence of Nathan Peats as both Isaac De Gois and Kaysa Pritchard were forced to play far more minutes then they are used to, that fatigue helping to create space for Souths to lay on the points.
Further compounding matters was the absence of Kieran Foran. Brad Taikairangi does an admirable job as a make-shift pivot but he simply can’t match the class of the New Zealand Test captain. If Kieran Foran is named late and plays, the Eels should win this match.
With that being said, I do not think Foran will play.
The Storm are simply incredible. Faced with a potential backline crisis they instead uncover one of the best new talents in the competition in the form of Suliasi Vunivalu and just this week have announced the signing of outstanding Papau New Guinea international Justin Olam to further bolster their outside backs.
Melbourne are in a rich vein of form at the moment, defeating the reigning premiers in spectacular fashion in Round 10 and outscoring their Round 8 and 9 opponents to the tune of 80-0.
The Storm have won five of their past seven against the Eels with the average winning margin being 29 points.
Tip: Storm 1-12
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