Round 15 is another shortened one due to State of Origin 2 next Wednesday, which leaves us with just four games.
It also makes for some very interesting tipping with a number of teams missing some big players.
Last week’s tips: seven from eight. Running tip total: 67/107.
South Sydney versus Parramatta Eels
Wests Tigers outclassed Souths for a second time this season in what is quickly shaping as a bogey team for the Rabbitohs – the Tigers have a 4-2 record since 2014.
Most pundits predicted a win for Souths but their epic extra-time loss in Perth to the Titans in Round 13 would have certainly left them feeling a bit flat.
This week they lose the services of Bryson Goodwin, Greg Inglis and Adam Reynolds. That means a completely new halves pairing in the form of Cody Walker and Luke Keary. Walker has been excellent at fullback and this positional shift could adversely affect Souths’ attack.
The Eels dominated the Titans in Darwin in Round 14, or perhaps more specifically, dominated the Titans after the 20-minute mark. Aside from Michael Jennings, who is on Origin duty, Parramatta have named the same 17 who defeated the Gold Coast last round.
While they may have got away with a slow start last week they must be firing from the opening whistle for this match as Souths are a confidence team who love to lead.
The Eels have an awful record against Souths having lost their past six matches to South Sydney at ANZ Stadium.
Tip: Eels 1-12
St George Dragons versus Melbourne Storm
This is a real tough one to pick. The Dragons have been incredibly inconsistent – they have not recorded consecutive wins, or losses, since Round 8.
Given last round was a loss, Nostradamus would be predicting the Red V will collect the two points here. But the key concern for the Dragons is their faltering attack and exacerbating this issue is the fact that the Storm have conceded just 44 points in their past seven matches.
The Dragons’ attack has improved, scoring 119 of their 159 points since Round 8, but the question is whether they can continue to tally the points minus Josh Dugan and Tyson Frizell.
The Storm are a truly brilliant football team. Playing a 100-kilogram plus second rower in the form of Tohu Harris at halfback and seamlessly transitioning career reserve graders Ryan Morgan and Cheyse Blair into quality first graders during their seven-game winning streak is incredible.
However, without Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith this match becomes a difficult prospect. But they welcome back Blake Green for this match and unlike previous seasons they lose nothing in the fullback positon for this Origin period. Cameron Munster will again fill the custodian role and he will be the key determinant for a Melbourne victory.
Tip: Storm 1-12
New Zealand Warriors versus Sydney Roosters
The Warriors recorded their second set of back-to-back wins for the 2016 season. This match is a very important one for the New Zealand club. It is a match they will be expected to win against a lowly ranked opposition missing a number of key men.
Victory would secure the start of winning streak to entrench them in the top eight. The Warriors lose just one player to Origin duty in the form of prop Jacob Lillyman.
The struggling Roosters were belted 46-0 by the Storm last week and now endure the losses of Blake Fergusson and Aiden Guerra to Origin. In a rare positive for the club this season, Shaun Kenny-Dowall returns in the centres but the absence of Mitchell Pearce and Boyd Cordner should be too much for the Bondi boys to overcome.
Tip: Warriors 13+
Gold Coast Titans versus Manly Sea Eagles
This is a real danger game for the Titans; a loss here could see them fall into a slump. After an incredible extra-time victory over South Sydney in Round 13, a fatigued Gold Coast side that had travelled from Perth to Darwin simply fell away after the 20th minute.
But with a nine-day turnaround since their loss to the Eels and missing only Greg Bird to Origin duty they should be raring to go.
Manly will like their chances in this game. Jamie Lyon’s return at five-eighth for Origin absentee Dylan Walker should ironically provide the club with increased direction. They will also be smarting from their capitulation to the Panthers at Brookvale Oval last round. The return of Martin Taupau could also offer the extra mile that could get the Sea Eagles over the line.
These two sides have faced off at CBUS Super Stadium five times since 2011 with Manly holding a 4-1 advantage.
This is a real toss up and could go either way.
Tip: Titans 1-12
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