Just seven rounds remain and after stumbles by the GWS Giants and Geelong Cats last weekend, the race to secure a top-six finish and at least one home final in September will go down to what happens over the next month and a half.

As always, I will provide this analysis in two parts. Here, I will look at the current top eight, while Part II will cover the teams currently outside it, while also focusing on the potential wooden spoon battle between the Brisbane Lions and Essendon.

Hawthorn
Currently first (12 wins, 3 losses, 48 competition points, 120.1%)
Matches to play: Sydney Swans (SCG, A), Richmond (MCG, H), Carlton (AS, H), Melbourne (MCG, A), North Melbourne (MCG, H), West Coast Eagles (DS, A), Collingwood (MCG, H)

For Hawthorn, the equation is simple: beat the Sydney Swans at the SCG this Thursday night and they will open up a two-game gap on the red and white.

In fact they could even be two games clear on top of the ladder should the Adelaide Crows and Western Bulldogs drop their matches against Collingwood and the Gold Coast Suns respectively on Saturday night.

That would see Alastair Clarkson’s men with one hand on the minor premiership, which will be crucial to their chances of emulating the Collingwood class of 1927-30 in winning four consecutive flags.

After their second trip to Sydney, which the Hawks hope will produce a much better outcome after they suffered a 75-point thrashing at the hands of the GWS Giants in Round 6, they will only have to make one more long-distance trip for the season when they travel to Perth to take on the West Coast Eagles in Round 22.

They also have to face Richmond, Carlton, Melbourne, North Melbourne and Collingwood in the run home; all except the game against Carlton (at Aurora Stadium) are at the MCG, and all except North are currently outside the eight.

Thus, top spot is theirs to lose.

Predicted finish: first

Sydney Swans
Currently second (11 wins, 4 losses, 44 competition points, 138.5%)
Matches to play: Hawthorn (SCG, H), Carlton (SCG, H), Fremantle (DS, A), Port Adelaide (SCG, H), St Kilda (ES, A), North Melbourne (BA, H), Richmond (SCG, H)

Thursday night’s home blockbuster against Hawthorn will provide yet another acid test for the Sydney Swans, who have defied the loss of nearly 1000 games experience at the end of last season to remain in premiership contention.

Their 38-point win over the Geelong Cats last Friday night saw it climb to second on the ladder, and with the best percentage and defence of any club at the moment are shaping as the biggest threat to the Hawks achieving a four-peat.

A win will see the Swans almost certainly end Round 17 in top spot on the ladder, though the Adelaide Crows have the slightest of chances to displace the Swans should they thrash Collingwood by a sizeable margin at the Oval on Saturday night.

Otherwise, a loss, combined with wins for the Crows, Western Bulldogs, West Coast Eagles, Geelong Cats and GWS Giants could see John Longmire’s men drop to as low as seventh at the end of the round (note I did not consider eighth-placed North Melbourne as their percentage of 112.7 is the lowest of any side in the eight).

After this Thursday night, the Swans will play two games at home against Carlton and Port Adelaide on either side of a trip to Perth to face Fremantle, before a pair of away matches against St Kilda (Etihad Stadium) and North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena) in Rounds 21 and 22. They finish against Richmond at home.

Of the Swans’ remaining opposition, only the Hawks and Kangaroos are placed inside the eight, which should give them no excuses not to finish in the top four for the fifth year running.

Predicted finish: third

Adelaide Crows
Currently third (11 wins, 4 losses, 44 competition points, 132.2%)
Matches to play: Collingwood (Oval, H), Geelong Cats (SS, A), Essendon (Oval, H), Brisbane Lions (Oval, H), Fremantle (DS, A), Port Adelaide (Oval, A), West Coast Eagles (Oval, H)

The Adelaide Crows couldn’t possibly ask for an easy final seven rounds as a second consecutive finals series looms.

Having just played a pair of matches at the MCG a week apart (and winning both), Don Pyke’s men will only have to travel just twice in the final seven rounds, including just once after Round 18.

That will provide them the platform with which to achieve a top-four finish, which would be just their second in the past decade.

This Saturday night they face Collingwood in a Saturday night blockbuster at home which will also double as veteran Scott Thompson’s 300th AFL game. After that, they will travel to Simonds Stadium to face the Geelong Cats, to whom the Crows’ most recent loss was against back in Round 8.

Their only other road trip is a second trip to Perth to face Fremantle in Round 21, which means they’ll enjoy two pairs of games at home in the run to the finals. This includes matches against bottom two sides the Brisbane Lions and Essendon.

Taking their easy final seven rounds into account, a top-two finish is achievable, but they’ll want to bank on the Sydney Swans and/or Hawthorn losing at least two or three of their remaining matches.

Predicted finish: fourth

Western Bulldogs
Currently fourth (11 wins, 4 losses, 44 competition points, 118.3%)
Matches to play: Gold Coast Suns (CAZ, H), St Kilda (ES, H), Geelong Cats (SS, A), North Melbourne (ES, H), Collingwood (ES, H), Essendon (ES, A), Fremantle (DS, A)

Once again the Western Bulldogs have defied a horror injury toll and are on the brink of reaching a second consecutive finals series.

Despite captain Robert Murphy suffering a season-ending knee injury against Hawthorn in Round 3, Luke Beveridge’s men have compiled an 11-4 record and could so easily be sitting on top of the ladder had they held on for dear life in that match against the Hawks.

Still, currently sitting in fourth place on the ladder the Bulldogs are in a good place and should win the majority of their remaining matches, but it might not be enough for them to secure the coveted double chance.

Their final seven matches are bookended by long road trips to Cairns and Perth to face the Gold Coast Suns and Fremantle respectively. In between, they play four of five matches at Etihad Stadium, including a Friday night home blockbuster against Collingwood in Round 21.

Of the teams they face in this period, the only ones they face that are currently in the eight are the Geelong Cats and North Melbourne, while Collingwood and St Kilda are both with a chance to break into the eight, but, given the gap between eighth and ninth (12 points), are unlikely to make up enough ground.

Nevertheless, the Bulldogs should win enough matches to at least finish in the top six, which will guarantee them a home final in September.

Predicted finish: fifth

West Coast Eagles
Currently fifth (10 wins, 5 losses, 40 competition points, 135.4%)
Matches to play: Carlton (MCG, A), Melbourne (DS, H), Collingwood (MCG, A), Fremantle (DS, A), GWS Giants (SPO, A), Hawthorn (DS, H), Adelaide Crows (AO, A)

Having recorded its first top-eight victory last week when they defeated North Melbourne at home, the West Coast Eagles’ status as “flat-track bullies” is set to return in their next four matches, when they play teams currently outside the eight.

This includes a pair of matches at the MCG against Carlton and Collingwood on either side of a home clash against Melbourne at Domain Stadium, while they will also face Fremantle in the second Western Derby for the season.

After that, though, they face a horrid three-week test whereby they play the GWS Giants (Spotless Stadium), Hawthorn (Domain Stadium) and the Adelaide Crows (Adelaide Oval).

The Giants side the Eagles will face will pose a much more different threat than the ones that have lost their four meetings by an average of 94.75 points, including an 87-point hiding in the teams’ last meeting at Domain Stadium in Round 5 last year.

Then there’s the Hawks, whom the Eagles have only beaten twice since 2010 but one of which was in the qualifying final in Perth last year, and then the Crows, who kept the Eagles scoreless in the final quarter when the teams met in Round 12.

What hasn’t helped Adam Simpson’s men this season is their atrocious record on the road this year, with only two wins away from Perth this season and none in Victoria yet this season (and none there since Round 16 last year).

Adding to the above statement, a question mark also hovers over their Round 19 match against Collingwood at the MCG – where the Eagles haven’t beaten them since 1995.

All that could eventually conspire against them come Round 23.

Predicted finish: eighth

Geelong Cats
Currently sixth (10 wins, 5 losses, 40 competition points, 132.4%)
Matches to play: Fremantle (DS, A), Adelaide Crows (SS, H), Western Bulldogs (SS, H), Essendon (ES, H), Richmond (MCG, A), Brisbane Lions (Gabba, A), Melbourne (SS, H)

Questions about the Geelong Cats’ premiership credentials have started to come into question recently following four losses in their past seven games, including the last two against St Kilda and the Sydney Swans on either side of the bye.

Now, Chris Scott’s men face somewhat of a crunch match this Friday night when they venture west to face 16th-placed Fremantle at Domain Stadium, and not even that match will guarantee the Cats victory, given the Dockers have won three of their last four meetings.

They also face a difficult task against the red-hot Adelaide Crows eight nights later; even though the Cats haven’t lost to the Crows at home since 2003 Don Pyke’s men are the form team of the competition, having won their last seven matches.

There are also home engagements against the Western Bulldogs, Essendon and Melbourne to come, as well as a match against Richmond at the MCG and a road trip to Brisbane to face the 17th-placed Lions at the Gabba.

It will remain to be seen whether the Cats’ recent form slump is just an aberration, or whether it is ongoing. Still, I expect the Cats to break out of their rut and charge back up the ladder.

Predicted finish: second

GWS Giants
Currently seventh (10 wins, 5 losses, 40 competition points, 132.1%)
Matches to play: Brisbane Lions (Gabba, A), Port Adelaide (Oval, A), Richmond (STO, H), Gold Coast Suns (MS, A), West Coast Eagles (SPO, H), Fremantle (SPO, H), North Melbourne (ES, A)

Last week’s 32-point loss to Collingwood, easily the GWS Giants’ worst performance for the year, has thrown their top-four hopes into massive chaos ahead of a month-long road trip.

Leon Cameron’s men had the chance to jump to second on the ladder and having led by 24 points at quarter-time against the Pies, but blew it all by conceding 15 goals across the second and third quarters en route to the potentially disastrous defeat.

Now they hit the road for four consecutive matches, starting with this Sunday’s flight north to take on the 17th-placed Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, the venue of the Giants’ first ever win outside of New South Wales/Australian Capital Territory.

That is then followed a week later by a second trip to Adelaide this season to face Port Adelaide, who will not only be smarting following their 86-point loss to the Giants back in Round 4 but whose finals hopes are hanging by a thread.

Further road trips follow against Richmond (in Canberra) and the Gold Coast Suns (at Metricon Stadium) before they host the two WA teams back to back, the West Coast Eagles and Fremantle, and then take on North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium in the final round in what could be the Giants’ first ever Friday night match.

It will remain to be seen how the Giants respond to the loss to the Pies against the Lions this weekend, as well as for the rest of the season going forward. Though unlikely, a loss to the Lions could see their top four hopes take a massive dent.

Other than that, they should at least beat the Suns and Dockers in rounds 20 and 22 respectively, with question marks hovering over the other four matches.

Predicted finish: seventh

North Melbourne
Currently eighth (10 wins, 5 losses, 40 competition points, 112.7%)
Matches to play: Port Adelaide (ES, H), Collingwood (ES, A), St Kilda (ES, H), Western Bulldogs (ES, A), Hawthorn (MCG, A), Sydney Swans (BA, H), GWS Giants (ES, H)

After winning their first nine matches of the season, suddenly the Roos have hit a serious form slump, with last Sunday’s 32-point loss to the West Coast Eagles in Perth seeing them drop to eighth on the ladder.

Despite their current woes, their place in the eight isn’t under any real danger; in fact, they can open up a four-game gap on themselves and ninth-placed Port Adelaide by defeating the Power this Saturday night.

That will kick off a four-game stretch at Etihad Stadium which also includes clashes against Collingwood, St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs. They then hit the MCG for the first time in the season when they tackle Hawthorn in Round 21 before finishing off with a pair of home games against the two Sydney clubs.

At the very least, Brad Scott’s men should defeat the Power, Pies, Saints, Dogs and Giants, while the matches against the Hawks and Swans could go either way (the Roos haven’t yet placed at the MCG this season while the Swans are undefeated in two previous premiership matches in Tasmania).

Every match from here on in will be crucial to the Roos’ hopes of securing the coveted double chance, or at least a top-six finish, which would give it at least one home final in September.

Predicted finish: eighth

If my predictions eventuate, then this would be the week one finals line-up.

Qualifying finals
Hawthorn versus Adelaide Crows, Melbourne Cricket Ground
Geelong Cats versus Sydney Swans, Simonds Stadium

Elimination finals
Western Bulldogs versus West Coast Eagles, Melbourne Cricket Ground or Etihad Stadium*
North Melbourne versus GWS Giants, Melbourne Cricket Ground or Etihad Stadium*

* – if both elimination finals are to be played on the Saturday, it’s very likely the North Melbourne versus GWS Giants match would be moved to Etihad Stadium.