The pressure on South African rugby to get it right is immense. It is coming from all sides and growing exponentially.

Only six days after the Rugby World Cup 2015 final, the Minister for Sports and Recreation, Fikile Mbalula, reiterated the transformation target of 50 per cent representation in the Springboks in time for the 2019 World Cup.

Three months ago Mbalula acted, revoking the right of SA Rugby to apply for the hosting of major international events, along with cricket, netball and athletics.

This was the penalty for the federation failing to meet its own transformation targets. Other punishments, such as the withdrawal of funding or the right to national representation, still hover threateningly in the background.

Although Mbalula insists that transformation must come from the grassroots level, through initiatives such as the Connect Rugby Academy, there is clearly a dissatisfaction that it cannot be forced through from above in the selection of the national and regional Super Rugby squads. While the minister says he wants “organic development”, the reality of the threats surrounding the administration of South African rugby suggest otherwise.

It was this internal contradiction that ex-All Black coach Laurie Mains probably picked up on last week when he made the following comments:

When I coached over there, I could see the reason for it (a quota system). It was a genuine attempt to create opportunities for the black and coloured players and I respected that because there hadn’t been big numbers of them.

But heavens above, that’s 15 years ago! And the reality now is that they’ve had plenty of time to develop. The ones that are playing at the top level now are getting the advantage of what happened in the late 90s, early 2000s when they first brought in this system at Currie Cup level.

It no longer needs to be there, it should now revert back to the best players get selected because all of the players in South Africa in the last 15-18 years have had the opportunity to develop. It should go back to straight merit selection and then we would have a world power in South Africa again.

In Laurie Mains’ view, ‘organic development’ in South African rugby has already achieved whatever it can achieve and there is little point in replacing meritocracy with enforced quotas at the top level.

Mains should know what he is talking about, having coached the Transvaal/Gauteng team – then known as the Cats – to respectable third and fourth-place finishes in Super Rugby back in the 2000 and 2001 seasons.

New Zealand coaches have always produced positive results in the Johannesburg franchise. John Mitchell was able to take the Golden Lions to a Currie Cup final against the Sharks, winning 42-16 – the Lions’ first Currie Cup win in 12 years. It was on Mitchell’s watch that the incumbent Lions coach Johan Ackermann cut his teeth. When Mitchell left in 2012, Ackermann took over and developed the hybrid ‘Kiwi’ playing style a step further.

There is a history of top-drawer New Zealand coaches adapting their coaching principles to bring the best out of South African players – even if that process is unlikely to fit the ‘quotas’ requirement.

So who among Ackermann’s current charges deserve to represent South Africa in the forthcoming Rugby Championship? I took a look at three of the Lions’ most important games of the season – away to the Chiefs on tour, and the recent quarter and semi-finals against the Crusaders and Highlanders – to dig for an answer to that question.

Front row: #2 Malcolm Marx and #3 Julian Redelinghuys
Marx at hooker and Redelinghuys at tight-head prop have been the standout South African performers at their positions in the current Super rugby season. Indeed, given the opportunity, Marx has the ability to become one of the dominant forwards in Test rugby.

Marx and Redelinghuys were at the sharp end of a Lions scrum which harvested no fewer than nine penalties from their three Kiwi opponents, including the full All Black front row of Wyatt Crockett, Codie Taylor and Owen Franks fielded by the Crusaders.

Redelinghuys is one of those squat, awkward, angular tight-heads who can be a scrummaging nightmare for the opposition loosehead. The following snapshots illustrate his ability to burrow through the gap in front of him and split the opposition loosehead and hooker.

The two shots from the Crusaders quarter-final show the difficulty a large and wide loose-head like Crockett has, even to find a place for his head at the ‘set’ command.

Redelinghuys is already through and past Pauliasi Manu’s outside shoulder and on to the hooker in the image from the Chiefs game.

The shot from the Highlanders semi-final demonstrates the perfect end-game of a Redelinghuys scrum. The hips of the Highlanders loosehead have been forced out and Redelinghuys is in A1 position to drive the hooker up and out of the set-piece.

It is the addition of Marx alongside Redelinghuys which makes the Lions scrum truly formidable. Marx is probably the best young scrummaging hooker I have seen since the great Frenchman William Servat.

He can alter his position to scrum left or right, whether it’s demolishing Chiefs tight-head Hiroshi Yamashita with his No.1 Dylan Smith:

Or working in concert with Redelinghuys on the Chiefs’ hooker Rhys Marshall:

Or simply becoming the spearhead of a five-metre surge which should have led to a penalty try at the beginning of the highlight reel below.

Marx has no problem promoting his shoulders ahead of his two props in both of the first two scrums in this reel, which is usually the telltale sign of an exceptionally powerful scrummaging hooker. He is also technically an excellent lineout thrower who does not ‘float’ the ball in and invite a counter-jump.

Marx is as good outside the scrum as he is in it. He can carry ball effectively and hit with devastating power both in open field (Crusaders on Matt Todd) and in close defence (Crusaders on Luke Romano and Chiefs on Malakai Fekitoa). He can also compete at the breakdown (Chiefs at 21:17), with three turnovers in the three games.

It is in the non-selection of Marx that the first of Mains’ chickens come home to roost, and a rigid political policy is seen to be outweighing the claims of natural meritocratic justice. By rights, Marx should not only be in the Springbok squad for the Rugby Championship 2016, he should probably be starting for South Africa against the Pumas on August 20.

Backrow: #6 Jaco Kriel
In the back-row, Jaco Kriel’s running power is exceptional, and he is the closest example in South Africa to the kind of natural No.7 prized so highly in New Zealand and Australia.

He can use that running power fore and aft, both with the ball and without it. In the clip at the start of the Chiefs match, he has tracked backwards over 60 metres from the lineout to be present at the site of the pass between Seta Tamanivalu and Charlie Ngatai, and he still has the strength to hold up the Chiefs ball-carrier and force the choke turnover at the end of the sequence. Two of the Lions’ four choke-tackle turnovers in the match belonged to Kriel.

In the lineout sequence at the end of the reel, he trots ten metres upfield before sprinting approximately 50 metres back to make ground up on Matt Faddes and drive him into touch near the far corner flag. In the All Black and Australian squads, only Michael Hooper or Ardie Savea might have stood a chance of making that tackle.

As well as being an auxiliary lineout option, Kriel has more power on the carry than could reasonably be expected of a natural No.7, brushing off Anton Lienert-Brown from a stooping start at 75:17 and carrying Luke Romano along for the ride at 35:50.

Backs: #9 Faf de Klerk and #14 Ruan Combrinck [#10 Elton Jantjies and #11 Courtnall Skosan]
In the backs, I envisage Faf de Klerk, Elton Jantjies and Ruan Combrinck as certainties for Springbok selection. They may well be joined by Courtnall Skosan as a potential bolter.

De Klerk suits the Lions’ need to maintain high tempo on attack, break from the base to take advantage of the Lions’ typically-dominant scrum (Chiefs at 29:05 from the forwards reel above), and attack off the edge on defence.

• Attacking off the edge in defence: South African defensive systems often tend to feature the #9 as an in-line defender out wide and the Lions are no exception. De Klerk excels in this role, making the intercept that sends Skosan away on a run against the Crusaders at 3:36. He had a further four near-intercepts in the same game, coming from deep to break late on the ball – a dangerous situation for the attacking side.

Both Combrinck and Jantjies understand how to defend in this system, with Combrinck setting up Kriel for the turnover in the reel at 66:27 of the Crusaders’ game, and Jantjies creating the opportunity for a breakaway score by Rohan Janse van Rensburg against the Highlanders.

• Extended exit strategy and countering from deep: unlike the great majority of South African sides, the Lions are programmed to both extend their exit strategy until a definite kicking or running opportunity occurs, and counter from deep in their own end after a turnover of possession.

The two key players in this strategy are Combrinck and Jantjies. Combrinck had already made one break from deep in the eighth minute against the Chiefs when a second opportunity presented itself just after the break. Combrinck gets himself squared north-south incredibly quickly, and with no apparent loss of speed or power on the run.

At 28:10 in the semi-final against the Chiefs, the Lions are quite prepared to shift the ball wide to the far side of the field via four passes delivered in the shadow of their own posts, in order to give Combrinck the opportunity to boot the ball fully 70 metres downfield. Combrinck is a valuable exit resource who can kick equally well off both feet.

The other key is Jantjies. Jantjies is a natural ball-player who identifies the opportunity created by a rushing Highlanders defender clearly at 45:14 of the semi-final, then preserves it for his wing, Skosan, by angling slightly in off the broken lines of the 5-metre corridor to fix the last defender.

• Finding the mismatches economically: the final two examples from the reel show how economically the Lions find their mismatches, compared to say the Brumbies pattern I looked at a few weeks ago.

The first instance from the Highlanders game is only second phase from a re-gathered kick, the second from the Chiefs match is a three-phase pattern from lineout.

Jantjies’ cross-kick to Kriel on the far side is obviously pre-called, as the Lions see a shortened defensive line in front of them. Kriel’s natural power and speed, and the threat of Combrinck inside him do the rest.

The final example shows the Lions at their attacking best. A two-second delivery from the first ruck, a strong carry by Franco Mostert on second-phase, with a one man cleanout and one-second delivery; the attack all tipping off ‘same way’ in the frame at 46:11.

Then Jantjies drifting back to the short-side on third phase to find a mismatch against the Chiefs’ front row.

Putting Skosan away for the try – it is all perfectly choreographed.

Summary
The Lions are leading the way for South African rugby, but South African rugby as a whole needs to listen to the words of its New Zealand mentors (Laurie Mains and John Mitchell) both on and off the field. Meritocratic selection will give the black and coloured South African players a real sense that they have earned the jersey.

Players such as Warren Whiteley, Rohan Janse van Rensburg and Lionel Mapoe also need to show further improvement in order to demand inclusion in the starting XV for South Africa.

The backbone of this superb Lions side is provided by Julian Redelinghuys, Malcolm Marx, Jaco Kriel, Faf de Klerk, Elton Jantjies, Ruan Combrinck and Courtnall Skosan. All deserve a place in the South African match-day 23 when the Springboks open their Rugby Championship campaign against Argentina at Mbombela stadium in Nelspruit.

If players like Marx are not selected, then as Laurie Mains says, “For my money, they’re gone, with racially selecting teams, they’re not going to cut it.”