The form of both the Sydney Swans and GWS Giants has been a highlight for the AFL this season.

While everyone in Sydney is happy, the prospect of an all-Sydney AFL grand final might be frightening to those around the rest of the country, particularly in the AFL’s heartland of Victoria.

This time last year, there was the prospect of an all-WA grand final and its chances increased after Fremantle and the West Coast Eagles finished in the top two, and subsequently won their qualifying finals at home.

This meant that both preliminary finals were played in Perth, but the prospect of an all-WA grand final was extinguished when Hawthorn defeated Fremantle by 27 points in the first grand final qualifier.

They eventually went on to defeat the West Coast Eagles, who defeated North Melbourne in the other preliminary final, in the big dance by 46 points.

This year, there is the possibility that the grand final could be decided by the two NSW clubs, the Swans and Giants, should both clubs continue on their impressive form in the final three rounds of the regular season and carry it into September.

After many predicted that the Swans would suffer a decline in form following their straight-sets exit from September last year, John Longmire’s men have bounced back to be sitting second on the ladder with a 14-5 record, only behind Hawthorn.

Injuries to key players, as well as the absence of Lance Franklin due to mental health issues, conspired against the Swans in last year’s finals series as they failed to reach the preliminary final for the first time since 2011.

However, a lighter injury toll (Kurt Tippett and Callum Sinclair aside) and the emergence of their younger stars has seen the club remain in premiership contention this year.

Only once this season have the Swans finished a round outside the top four, and had they not lost narrowly to the Adelaide Crows, Richmond, Western Bulldogs or Hawthorn would so easily be sitting on top of the ladder with the minor premiership all but wrapped up with three rounds still to play.

The Giants, on the other hand, have continued to go from strength to strength under third-year coach Leon Cameron and with the assistance of midfield coach Lenny Hayes, their stars have shone through the club’s best ever season.

They were slow to get going at first, losing two of their first three matches including a disappointing two-point loss to Melbourne at the MCG in Round 1 and a 25-point loss to the Swans at the SCG in Round 3.

A six-match winning streak followed, during which they thrashed Hawthorn by 75 points and climbed into the top four, before back-to-back losses to the Adelaide Crows and Geelong Cats in rounds 10 and 11 saw them drop to sixth on the ladder.

The huge win over the Hawks, as well as Jacob Hopper’s stunning debut against the Gold Coast Suns in Round 8, led to prominent AFL figures, including Collingwood president Eddie McGuire, to question its academy system.

They then defeated the Swans by 42 points in their 100th match and, apart from the slip-up against Collingwood last month, have continued to score heavily and win matches on the back of it.

The club will make its finals debut this season and it would be great for the game if they were to finish in the top four, which would see them with a huge chance to create history by becoming the quickest expansion club in AFL history to win the premiership.

At present the Adelaide Crows hold this record, winning its first flag in 1997, six years after entering the AFL in 1991 (note that the Brisbane Lions, who won its first flag in 2001, its fifth season, are a merged entity).

Let’s now get to why it is possible that the Sydney Swans and GWS Giants could finish in the AFL’s top two.

An analysis of the run home on the AFL’s website, as well as that from Channel Seven’s Mark Stevens, have the two clubs finishing one and two on the AFL ladder respectively come the end of Round 23.

This comes after Hawthorn’s shock loss to Melbourne saw their grip on the minor premiership loosened by one game, and with a potentially tricky trip to Perth to face the West Coast Eagles to come in Round 22, as well as a dismal percentage of 120.7 per cent, it could lose top spot or even lose the double chance altogether.

Both analyses have the Hawks finishing fifth at the end of the regular season.

By contrast, both the Sydney clubs have very easy runs home. The Swans face St Kilda, North Melbourne (both away) and Richmond (home) while the Giants face the two WA clubs at home before facing the Roos at Etihad Stadium in the final round.

They boast two of the best three percentages in the AFL with the Swans’ at 144.2 per cent and the Giants’ at 140.2 per cent. Additionally, the Swans are the best defensive side (1266 points conceded) while the Giants are the second-best scoring side (2055 points scored).

While the Swans will be expected to defeat the Saints at Etihad Stadium this Saturday night, they’ll be wary of a team that have improved this season and are still in with the faintest mathematical chance of reaching the finals.

That being said, the St Kilda side the Swans will face will pose much more of a threat to the one that lost by 97 points in the corresponding match last season.

For the Saints to remain alive in the finals race, they must win their three remainders by large margins and hope that North Melbourne, who are still vulnerable in eighth place, lose their three remainders by large margins.

After that, the Swans are on the road again, facing North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena in Hobart. John Longmire’s men remain the last team to have beaten either the Roos or Hawks in Tasmania, in 2013 and 2012 respectively.

They then finish off against Richmond at the SCG.

Turning focus to the Giants now, and despite their appalling overall record against West Coast (four losses by an average margin of 94.75 points), the club will start favourites at home this Saturday afternoon at Spotless Stadium.

The Giants are coming off a rather unconvincing eight-point win over the Gold Coast Suns on the Gold Coast, which completed an undefeated month-long road trip whereby they also won in Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra.

By contrast, the Eagles will travel to Sydney off the back of a six-day break and their coach Adam Simpson has flagged that several of their senior players, Nic Naitanui in particular, will be managed in the run to the finals.

This could mean the Fijian, who had just returned from an Achilles injury in their win over Fremantle, will miss the long trip to the Harbour City, which for the Eagles will be their second for the season after losing to the Swans in Round 5.

In addition, the sixth-placed Eagles’ poor form on the road has been well-documented, with only three victories on the other side of the Nullarbor and also with no victories against sides currently ranked above them on the ladder.

After that, it’ll be Fremantle’s turn to cross the country to face the Giants in Sydney for the first time, with the Dockers’ five previous meetings against the AFL’s youngest club all being played in Perth.

The Giants have already beaten the Dockers this season, doing so by 18 points in Perth in Round 7, and again they’ll be favoured to repeat the dose, this time at Spotless Stadium, where the Giants have lost just three matches since the start of last season, the most recent against Collingwood in Round 16.

They then finish their regular season campaign against North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium; should Leon Cameron’s men beat both the WA clubs as expected, the match against the Roos could decide whether they finish in the top two or not.

The Roos have been in poor form since starting the season with nine straight victories, winning only three times more to drop to eighth on the ladder with a 12-7 record amidst a lengthy injury toll.

If all goes to plan, and the Hawks drop at least one of their three remainders (very likely their Round 22 match against the Eagles in Perth), the Swans and Giants could end up finishing one and two on the ladder by the end of Round 23.

This would mean two finals in Sydney, one at Spotless Stadium and the other at ANZ Stadium, both within ten minutes’ walking distance of each other.

There is still the chance that the Swans home final could be moved to the SCG, with the club having severed ties with the Olympic stadium prior to the start of the season.

But, if the two teams end up facing each other in the qualifying final, it will all but certainly be played at ANZ Stadium regardless of who the home team is.

This leads us to the question: can any team stop the all-Sydney grand final that some have been dreading for most of this season?

Apart from the Swans and Giants, the other two teams equal on points with them, and thus still in contention for a top-two finish, are the Adelaide Crows (third with a percentage of 141.1%) and Geelong Cats (fifth, 137.1%).

Both the Crows and Cats have three winnable remainders each: the former plays Fremantle, Port Adelaide and West Coast while the latter has Richmond, the Brisbane Lions and Melbourne to deal with.

Even if both clubs win their remainders, it may not be enough and there is the chance that there could be a five-way tie for first place come the end of Round 23. This is where percentage will come into play.

Though the Hawks are currently a game clear of the chasing pack in top spot on the ladder, they are the most vulnerable to losing the double chance due to their aforementioned poor percentage, which is 120.7 per cent.

The Swans, Crows, Giants and Cats are all in equal second place on the ladder and their respective percentages (144.2%, 141.1%, 140.2% and 137.1%) is the reason why they are in that particular order.

This is what makes the run home all the more intriguing as September looms.

If those four clubs win all their remainders, and the Hawks drop one match, the triple-defending premiers will finish fifth at season’s end and therefore face an enormous task in attempting to match the Collingwood class of 1927-30 in winning four consecutive premierships.

Never since the inception of the AFL’s current finals system in 2000 has any club won the premiership, let alone reached the grand final, from outside the top four, with the Pies coming the closest when they lost to Geelong by five points in a thrilling preliminary final in 2007, which drew more than that year’s decider did.

This would see the Swans, Crows, Giants, Cats and Hawks finish in that order on the ladder (assuming there are no significant changes to the clubs’ percentages), which would see the two qualifying finals play out like this.

Sydney Swans versus Geelong Cats, ANZ Stadium or the SCG
Adelaide Crows versus GWS Giants, Adelaide Oval

The Giants would have to travel to Adelaide for a third time this season to face the Crows in front of what is expected to be a hostile and mostly pro-Crows crowd at the Oval. Already the Giants failed when they lost by 22 points in Round 10.

Meanwhile, the Swans would stay home and face the Cats at ANZ Stadium, and as minor premiers they would enjoy a smoother passage to the grand final with their second final to also be at home, whether it’d be the semi or preliminary final.

If the Swans and Crows were to win their qualifying finals as expected, and assuming the Cats and Giants win their semi-finals, the preliminary finals would be as follows.

Sydney Swans versus GWS Giants, ANZ Stadium
Adelaide Crows versus Geelong Cats, Adelaide Oval

That’s the one way an all-Sydney grand final could be averted, but I’m sure there are also many more. What do you think?