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A week out from the first Bledisloe Test in Sydney, I reckon the Wallabies are going to be competitive and the game is going to be a humdinger.
This is despite all the doom and gloom in Australian men’s 15 a side rugby at the moment, after a miserable Super Rugby season for Aussie teams and the three-nil series loss against England in June.
Here are five reasons why the series should be anticipated.
1. Healthy Wallabies
Unlike so many previous Test seasons which have started with Australia having to dig into its relatively shallow pool of Test talent, nearly all of the Wallabies best players are injury free.
Kurtley Beale is the most influential player who is injured but the Wallabies have excellent options to cover for him and can field excellent starting players in all positions, together with an excellent bench.
When you think about the depleted playing stocks the Wallabies played with to achieve draws at home in 2012 and 2014, they are in very good shape.
2. Experience
Despite the debate about whether it is good for the long term future of Aussie rugby, it cannot be doubted that the ARU’s 60-cap rule for overseas based players to play for the Wallabies has given the team access to a brace of highly experienced performers who would otherwise have been unavailable.
Will Genia, Matt Giteau, Adam Ashley Cooper and Drew Mitchell fill the experience gap in the backline that was so evident in the England series, while Sekope Kepu will continue to add his starch at tighthead.
Level heads that can only be developed over a long Test career will undoubtedly be invaluable in the face of the black wave and in providing the newer players with invaluable opportunities to learn.
3. Preparation
The upside of Aussie teams doing so badly in the Super Rugby is that most players have had five weeks without a Super Rugby game to freshen up and work on skills and fitness. The team as a whole has been together for three weeks after the Brumbies came into camp to compete for selection in the game day 23 and to work on learning a winning game plan.
That is a luxury of a couple of weeks compared to the All Blacks that the Wallabies don’t usually get.
4. Hard lessons learned
Despite Cheika’s apparent previous stubbornness about ‘running rugby’ at all cost, it appears from statements coming from players like Stephen Moore and Bernard Foley that the Wallabies might have learned the lesson about the need for a clever tactical kicking game to complement ball in hand rugby.
Hopefully this will translate into not only kicking for field position and territory, but drop kick attempts when the opportunity presents and finally making full use of the best aerial player in rugby – Israel Folau – with use of attacking high ball.
5. Mick Byrne
A winning game plan can’t come together without skills and in that regard having the All Black’s former skills coach in camp is a big, big deal for the Wallabies. Byrne has had a month to work on individual skills, enough time to achieve bankable improvements in goal kicking, tactical kicking and passing skills, something the Wallabies desperately need.
So while I would never be crazy enough to predict a Wallabies win against the All Blacks, they are just too good to do that with any certainty, I reckon the Wallabies are well in the hunt to knock them over in Sydney and am looking forward to an entertaining match.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.