Welcome to the island of misfit toys. Continuing our season preview series, today we look at the teams stuck in the middle of the Eastern Conference.

These five teams are all contenders – to lose in the first round of the playoffs. It’s an eclectic bunch, full of big name additions like Derrick Rose and Dwight Howard, whose arrivals would have produced euphoria a few years ago but in 2016 can inspire only a tempered curiosity.

Teams like the Knicks and Pacers have high ceilings, but low basements to match, with some perhaps blinded in their optimism by the bright lights of star names, failing to notice the dimming of their talent.

We start with one of the sadder stories in the NBA (no, not the Knicks).

10. Miami Heat
Last season: 48-34, third in the East
Predicted record: 38-44

The Heat were the strangest team in the East last season, an odd mixture of veteran savvy and youthful exuberance that never entirely meshed. At times it felt like Dwyane Wade, with his old man grind it out halfcourt game, was unnecessarily slowing down the Heat’s run-and-gun potential spearheaded by the length, speed and athleticism of Goran Dragic, Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow and Hassan Whiteside. But then Wade’s heroics carried the Heat in the playoffs, giving slithers of life to an anemic offence.

Now Wade is gone, and with Luol Deng having defected to the Lakers and Chris Bosh’s position on the team and, tragically, in the league, in grave doubt, the Heat are now largely devoid of veteran talent. The keys of the team will be passed from Wade to Dragic, a player whose talent was largely stymied by the Heat legend, who played with a style antithetical to Dragic’s pace.

The hope for the Heat is that with the team built in Dragic’s image they’ll have a more coherent, unified identity. The vision is clear, and tantalising: Dragic running pick and roll with Whiteside, surrounded by long, athletic shooters who are going to wreak havoc with their length on defence. Line-ups featuring Dragic, Richardson, Winslow and Whiteside dominated the league last season to the tune of a +6.9 net rating in close to 300 minutes, a better mark than the Cavaliers posted.

That stat, and that identity, is the biggest cause for Heat optimism. Dragic will be unleashed, Dion Waiters will look to be a younger, more dynamic, infinitely less reliable Deng replacement, and Tyler Johnson will be healthier, giving them strong depth at guard. Winslow and Richardson will continue to improve, and Erik Spoelstra is one of the best coaches in the game.

The worry for the Heat is that without Wade they have a serious deficiency in playmaking, and they’re going to struggle to score. The Bosh situation will continue to linger over the team too. But don’t be surprised if the Heat are more firmly in the playoff mix than everyone expects. Their Vegas over/under is 34.5 – that’s too low.

9. New York Knicks
Last season: 32-50, 13th in the East
Predicted record: 40-42

Take a stroll with me into the past, my friends.

Barack Obama has just screwed up the first presidential debate against Mitt Romney and liberals across America are stricken with nerves, wondering if the entire campaign has just turned. Spain continue to dominate the football world, destroying Italy in the final of the European Championship with sumptuous free-form football.

The Dark Knight Rises has just hit cinemas and the reaction is impressed but a little underwhelmed, with everyone left totally confused by Tom Hardy’s inaudible voice.

This world, somewhere in the middle of 2012, is where these Knicks belong.(Click to Tweet) Unfortunately it’s 2016, and that temporal miscalculation could lead to Gotham’s reckoning.

New York is counting on a lot of players who used to be good. In itself, the trade for Derrick Rose was a reasonable gamble, but doubling down of Joakim Noah means that the Knicks are going all in on a hand of four and seven. They could luck into a straight draw with a finally healthy Rose (the court case is a whole other story, although at this stage it’s only a civil case) resembling something approaching the star he used to be, and a less banged up Noah shoring up last season’s 18th ranked defence.

The problem is that Rose hasn’t been good in four seasons, and Noah is coming off two years of below average play. At 28 today (happy birthday Derrick!) and 32 during the season, it’s more likely these two are in the middle of a steep decline than it is that they’re going to reclaim All-Star status or anything approaching that.

New York’s other moves were largely fine. Brandon Jennings was a steal, and Courtney Lee is a great glue guy. Lee in particular is a perfect fit for this group, but his place in the line-up only highlights its other weaknesses – the other four players all need the ball.

Carmelo Anthony is the type of player who needs other players to fit around him more than he can fit around them. In Rose, a ball-dominant point guard who can’t shoot or play off-ball, Noah and Kristaps Porzingis – two big men who need minutes, meaning that Anthony’s opportunity to play the four (his best position) will be limited – Anthony does not have a team that plays to his strengths.

The big names have made expectations unreasonably high, the three highest paid players on the team are all chronic health risks, and tension exists all throughout management – is Jeff Hornacek really going to play the triangle? And if he does, is he going to lose the ears of the playing group immediately?

There are worlds where the Knicks are a top five seed and maybe even push Boston or Toronto for the right to get decimated by Cleveland. Maybe Rose, finally with a clean run of health, becomes an above average point guard again, Porzingis takes a leap, Noah stays on the court, and Anthony, with less offensive responsibility, settles into more of a Team USA role, which he’s thrived in. These worlds exist, but one suspects they disappeared some time around 2012.

8. Washington Wizards
Last season: 41-41, 10th in the East
Predicted record: 42-40

The Wizards have won 44, 46 and 41 games in the past three seasons, and more than perhaps any team in the league they seemed destined to remain in the purgatory of low to mid 40s win totals for some time yet.

They have John Wall, a transcendent star whose transcendence waned last season, and then they have plenty of fine, competent, totally uninspiring pieces around him.

Bradley Beal is an ideal running mate for Wall but mostly in a theoretical sense – he’s missed 26, 9, 19 and 27 games due to injury in his four seasons in the league. The real injury concern for the Wizards this year, though, is Wall, who is coming off procedures on both of his knees this off-season, with his status for the start of the season uncertain.

If Wall is slowed, it will be devastating for his game and his team. His shooting has improved over the years, but it’s hardly a weapon, and without his breathtaking pace he’s not a foundational superstar.

If he can approach his best again, the Wizards should be a playoff team. Everything went to hell for them last year and they still won 41 games. They get a full season of Markieff Morris this year, Beal should take the court more often, and Ian Mahinmi gives them big man depth and reliability that they lacked last season. Scott Brooks should also represent an upgrade in coaching from the much maligned Randy Wittman. At the very least, he’ll have the Wiz playing hard, which they couldn’t always be accused of last year.

At the same time, though, Marcin Gortat will be 33 this season, and could begin to decline – don’t be surprised if Mahinmi supplants him as the starter by the end of the year. On paper, Otto Porter Jr is the three and D wing prototype, except he doesn’t shoot threes that well and he’s a limited man-on-man defender (he’s much better with off-ball defence). The depth at guard is frighteningly non-existent too – Trey Burke and Marcus Thornton, anyone?

If Wall is right then the Wizards will end up where they always end up, stuck in the depressing, perfectly respectable 40s. If he’s not, then things could get ugly.

7. Indiana Pacers
Last season: 45-37, seventh in the East
Predicted record: 42-40

The Knicks and Bulls have stolen the headlines in the ‘adding big names who don’t really fit’ department this off-season, but spare a thought for the Pacers too.

Jeff Teague, Thaddeus Young and Al Jefferson don’t have names that carry the weight of Derrick Rose, Dwyane Wade or Rajon Rondo, but Teague and Big Al are All-Stars, and Young has been thrown into so many fanciful trade rumours over the years that his name outweighs his talent. The pedigree no longer marries reality – Jefferson is a bench player at this stage and Teague and Young are simply league average starters.

The Pacers want to play up-tempo to kick-start an offence that was laborious to the point of being unwatchable last season, finishing 25th in the league. The problem with their additions is that to play fast you generally have to be able to shoot the ball, otherwise possessions inevitably take longer, with players needing more time to navigate through tighter spaces.

Young has some stretchy qualities at the four but he can’t shoot – he made just seven threes last season. Teague is a reluctant shooter, having never made more than 1.4 threes a game across a season despite competent percentages. With bricklayer Monta Ellis alongside him in the backcourt, he of the atrocious 31.3 per cent career downtown percentage, the Pacers are going to struggle to generate space.

Paul George is a superstar and Myles Turner is one of the most intriguing big men prospects in the league. But beyond them this team doesn’t make sense. The skills of Ellis and Teague uncomfortably overlap, two small, ageing guards who can’t or won’t shoot, who both need the ball to be effective.

Ellis’ fit next to George was already awkward last year, given that George also loves to handle the ball, and adding Teague into the mix just complicates matters further. George Hill was quietly the perfect point guard for this team, someone who could play excellent defence and capably space the floor, and it doesn’t make sense why they traded him.

The Pacers’ third ranked defence from last season will surely tumble with the loss of Hill and rim protector Ian Mahinmi. Any strides on offence won’t be big enough to make up the gap. They probably have too much talent not to make the playoffs but don’t be surprised if there are a few ‘What’s wrong the Pacers?’ articles floating around come December.

6. Atlanta Hawks
Last season: 48-34, fourth in the East
Predicted record: 44-38

Perennially one of the most stable franchises in the league, the 2016 offseason represents the biggest shake-up in Hawks town since Joe Johnson was shipped to Brooklyn. The Hawks are one of the smartest teams around, an organisation that values steadiness and continuity, so it was fascinating to see them effectively stake their season on the mercurial, enigmatic talents of Dwight Howard and Dennis Schroeder.

Swapping Howard in for Al Horford and giving the keys to Schroeder arguably raises Atlanta’s ceiling. Horford is a star, but one whose game skews more towards reliable than transformative. Howard, on the other hand, can be a dominant force. He could also be washed up.

In a lot of ways he’s a cleaner fit than Horford next to Paul Millsap. Howard is a more imposing rim protector and pick and roll threat, two things the Hawks probably need more than Horford’s spacing, passing and all-round smarts.

Schroeder, meanwhile, oscillates between looking like peak Rondo and present day Rondo. His skillset is dynamic, a slithery, snake-like mover who ghosts into the paint and threads passes that few can see. He also just does a tonne of dumb things.

Atlanta’s bench is worrisome (Kris Humphries, anyone?) and it’s hard to see how last year’s 22nd ranked offence is going to get better with a declining Kyle Korver a year older, Kent Bazemore possibly due for a little regression after a breakout year, and the swap of Horford for Howard more likely to be fruitful on the defensive end.

But the talent is there. Millsap is a bona fide star, Schroeder is playing for a life-altering contract and Howard is fighting to restore his reputation. Mike Budenholzer is one of the best coaches around, and you trust the team will find another journeyman gem after they’re put through Hawks University.