At last, after 160 matches across 20 rounds and a suspension of two months, we have finally reached the first week of the finals.

Six of the eight teams that qualified for last year’s series return for another crack at the flag this year, with the Panthers and Knights returning to the top eight for the first time since 2018 and 2013 respectively.

They replace the Sea Eagles and Broncos, with the former finishing 13th after a disappointing 2020 campaign while the latter took out the wooden spoon for the first time in club history.

As the minor premiers, the Panthers will enjoy home ground advantage for its qualifying final against the Roosters in what is a rematch of the 2003 grand final won by the mountain men.

The other qualifying final will see the Storm and Eels lock horns at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane. In a normal world it would be played at AAMI Park in Melbourne, but the Storm were forced to evacuate to the Sunshine Coast after a second wave of COVID-19 cases in Victoria.

The two elimination finals bring together the Rabbitohs and Knights, who will be playing each other in a final for the first time, plus the Raiders and Sharks, in what will be their fourth finals clash in 13 years.

All teams except for the Storm, who will play their home finals in Brisbane due to the situation in Victoria which is only starting to subside, will play any home finals they are entitled to at their home grounds.

Here is your guide to week one of the 2020 NRL finals series.

Penrith Panthers (1) vs Sydney Roosters (4)

Friday, 2 October, at 7:50pm (AEST) at Panthers Stadium

This season: Panthers won 20-14 at Panthers Stadium, Round 1.
Last meeting in a final: Panthers won 19-18 at Allianz Stadium, first qualifying final, 2014.

It all begins on Thursday night with the first qualifying final between the Penrith Panthers and Sydney Roosters at Panthers Stadium this Friday night.

The Panthers have been the most consistent team all year, winning their last 15 matches in a row – a club record – en route to claiming its first minor premiership since 2003, also the year of their most recent premiership win.

With the JJ Giltinan Shield sewn up, the mountain men warmed up for October with a 42-0 demolition of the Bulldogs at ANZ Stadium despite pre-match suggestions they would end up on the wrong end of a massive upset from the 15th-placed Dogs.

This Thursday night, the Panthers come up against the Roosters, who they beat 20-14 at home in Round 1, that result giving them the confidence that they could not only become competitive against the top sides but also beat them at their own game.

They built on that result to win 17 more games for the season, finishing with an 18-1-1 record, the only loss being against the Parramatta Eels in Round 5. The only team they failed to beat were the Newcastle Knights, against who they shared a 14-all draw in Round 3.

Meantime, the Roosters will be reeling after copping a record thrashing at the hands of South Sydney, losing 60-8 and conceding the most points by any team in a match this year – ironically this eclipsed the 59 points the Roosters put on the Brisbane Broncos in Round 4.

Many suggested the Chooks lost that match on purpose so as to avoid a qualifying final against the Storm, but it was still a poor performance on the eve of the finals and leaves them somewhat vulnerable as they attempt to become the first three-peat premiers since the Eels in 1981-83.

At home the Panthers should continue their red-hot form and move one step closer to the grand final.

For the winner: a week off and a likely Friday night preliminary final likely at ANZ Stadium (if the Panthers win) or the SCG (if the Roosters win).
For the loser: await the winner of the Raiders vs Sharks elimination final the next day and face them next Friday night.

Prediction: Panthers by 12 points.

Canberra Raiders (5) vs Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (8)

Saturday, 3 October, at 5:40pm (AEST) at GIO Stadium

This season: Raiders won 38-28 at Kogarah Oval, Round 20.
Last meeting in a final: Sharks won 16-14 at GIO Stadium, second qualifying final, 2016.

The first of the two elimination finals sees the Raiders and Sharks face each other for the second consecutive week after the Raiders scored a 38-28 victory at Kogarah Oval in the final round of the regular season.

Again, the Raiders have been one of the most consistent teams this season, and they still had the chance to finish as high as fourth going into the final round but ultimately had to settle for fifth after the Parramatta Eels defeated the Wests Tigers.

This means they must win four consecutive finals matches – a feat not achieved since the Tigers did it in 2005 – if they are to end a 16-year premiership drought and bring the title back home to the nation’s capital for the first time since 1994.

The Sharks’ defeat, on the other hand, meant they finished with an even 10-10 record and ended with a points differential of zero, meaning they scored the same number of points as they conceded, but the fact of the matter is they failed to beat a top-eight side all year.

They are the first team since the Panthers in 2005 to finish with a points differential of zero, and their failure to beat a finals team has led to suggestions that they are flat-track bullies, something that has annoyed forward Andrew Fifita.

This will be the first time the Raiders and Sharks face each other in a finals match since 2016 and the third time in nine years they will face each other in a finals match in Canberra.

The last meeting was memorable in the manner that the depleted Sharks pulled off a miraculous 16-14 victory despite being without captain Paul Gallen, while his deputy Wade Graham was concussed in the opening seven minutes.

But expect no miracles this time as the Raiders begin their mission to go one better than last year’s grand final loss to the Roosters.

This match will form a blockbuster triple-header, with both the NRLW matches – Roosters vs Dragons and Broncos vs Warriors – to be played as curtain-raisers.

For the winner: face the loser of Friday night’s Panthers vs Roosters qualifying final. The stakes will be highest for the Raiders if the Roosters lose, as this would set up a grand final rematch likely to be played at the SCG next Friday night.
For the loser: season over, and if the Sharks are beaten, a long road trip back up the Federal and Hume highways.

Prediction: Raiders by 14 points.

Melbourne Storm (2) vs Parramatta Eels (3)

Saturday, 3 October, at 7:50pm (AEST) at Suncorp Stadium

This season: Eels won 14-0 at Bankwest Stadium, Round 15.
Last meeting in a final: Storm won 32-0 at AAMI Park, first semi-final, 2019.

It remains to be seen whether the Parramatta Eels have learnt their finals lesson when they come up against the Melbourne Storm in a finals match for the third time in four years this Saturday night.

Last year, a week after thrashing the Brisbane Broncos by a finals-record 58-0 in the elimination final, it was the Eels’ turn to be blanked as they lost to a red-hot Storm side 32-0 in the semi-final at AAMI Park.

That result proved that the blue-and-golds still had a long way to go if they were to match the standards set by the Storm (and Roosters for that matter) in recent years.

In fact the Storm have been responsible for some of the Eels’ most heartbreaking defeats in finals matches, including the 1999 and 2007 preliminary finals as well as the 2009 grand final.

To this day Eels fans continue to be angry over the 2009 result as it was revealed that the Storm had an illegal playing roster that year, which subsequently saw the club’s 2007 and 2009 titles stripped due to salary cap breaches.

But as the saying goes, there’s no use crying over spilt milk.

This year, despite some erratic form in the second half of the season, the Eels have improved to finish third on the ladder, their highest finish since claiming the minor premiership in 2005.

When the two teams met for the only time this season back in Round 15, the Eels won 14-0, though the Storm were missing key players that night, including both Cameron Smith and Cameron Munster.

Last week Storm coach Craig Bellamy rested up to 12 players, including captain Smith, for the match against the Dragons, which they lost 30-22 at Kogarah Oval.

Meantime, the Eels had to come from behind to beat the Wests Tigers 28-24, with that result ensuring they’d receive the double chance, which they also had in 2017 but went out in straight sets.

Normally the Melbourne Storm would play their home finals at AAMI Park, but due to the eruption of the second wave of coronavirus cases in Victoria in June the club was forced to evacuate and set up camp on the Sunshine Coast, where they have remained since.

This means the Storm and Eels will instead face off at Suncorp Stadium, where the two teams also met in Magic Round last year. It will thus be the Eels’ first final in the sunshine capital since 2002, when it lost to the Brisbane Broncos in a qualifying final at QSAC.

The Storm are unbeaten in the sunshine state this year and I expect this to continue.

For the winner: a week off and direct passage to the preliminary final, likely to be played on Saturday night at either Suncorp Stadium (if the Storm win) or ANZ Stadium (if the Eels win).
For the loser: live on to fight another day and await the winner of the following day’s Rabbitohs vs Knights elimination final.

Prediction: Storm by 18 points.

South Sydney Rabbitohs (6) vs Newcastle Knights (7)

Sunday, 4 October, at 4:05pm (AEDT) at ANZ Stadium

This season: Knights won 20-18 at Bankwest Stadium, Round 10.
Last meeting in a final: Never

The last of the four finals this weekend sees the South Sydney Rabbitohs face the Newcastle Knights in a finals match for the first time ever.

After seven years without finals, during which time they claimed a hat-trick of wooden spoons, the Knights are back in the final eight for the first time since 2013, but their erratic form on occasions this year could come to suggest their time in October will be brief.

With a finals berth sewn up, the Knights could have been the home team for this elimination final tie but were instead made to look second rate against the Gold Coast Titans last Friday night, the result ensuring they would finish seventh.

But under first-year coach Adam O’Brien, who promised a hard edge when appointed coach last year, the club’s otherwise impressive performances were a highlight for success-starved fans, as was the good form of playmakers Kalyn Ponga and Mitchell Pearce.

Now they brace themselves for a rampant South Sydney Rabbitohs, who made history last week in their 60-8 mauling of the Sydney Roosters at ANZ Stadium, also last Friday night.

Winger Alex Johnston, who many thought was on the outer at Redfern, scored five tries to end the regular season as the top try-scorer, while the Bunnies’ 60 points was their highest ever against the Roosters and highest against anyone in a match since 1937.

That comes a week after they suffered a shock 26-16 loss to the then bottom-placed Bulldogs, which had many questioning whether the Rabbitohs would even do well in October.

But all of a sudden their thumping win over the Roosters makes them a team that no-one will want to face, even though they finished sixth, which means they’ll have to win four consecutive finals matches to claim premiership 22.

On that basis I think the Rabbitohs should take the points, even though they did lose to the Knights by 20-18 during the regular season.

For the winner: face the loser of Saturday night’s Storm vs Eels qualifying final next Saturday night in either Brisbane (if the Storm lose) or Sydney (if the Eels win).
For the loser: season over, and if the Knights are beaten a long road trip back home to Newcastle.

Prediction: Rabbitohs by 20 points.

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