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Opinion
The AFL is back – and so, apparently, is my ability to actually tip!
After an action-packed Round 1 that saw plenty of exciting footy and a dash or two of the ol’ controversy, I somehow managed to wrangle an eight for the round – and I’m not going to gloat about it at all.
That being said, there’s no point getting off to a flyer if you’re only going to crash and burn a week later, and several matches this week look just as tricky to tip as the opening round always is. But as always, I’ll delude myself into thinking I know what I’m doing for at least another few days.
Good luck everyone, and let’s get to tipping again!
Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Collingwood, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, West Coast, GWS, Fremantle
There’s nothing like a good start to the season to get the nerves a-jangling, as for the first time in many years, I’m faced with having something to stuff up from a tipping perspective. With many of this week’s games looking like toss of the coins too, especially before the teams drop, it’s back to the well on not trusting my gut for the most part. If it ain’t broke, right?
To start us off, I’ll back the Bulldogs to respond to last week’s loss in the grand final rematch, with their stronger midfield mix to give Carlton more problems than Richmond’s group did in the final term.
Friday night is a genuine toss of the coin, but as terrifying as Geelong looked against Essendon, I’m all chips in on the Swans this year and reckon their crop of young stars can hold sway at home.
Collingwood should get the job done against a travelling Adelaide – though the Crows could cause them some troubles if their midfield can prevent the Pies from running it out of centre bounces like they did against St Kilda – and you surely couldn’t back in Essendon to knock over Brisbane after what they served up last week. Similarly, Port Adelaide and Melbourne are red-hot favourites to account for Hawthorn and Gold Coast respectively for good reason.
It’s fraught with danger to tip a winner from North Melbourne and West Coast before the team lists come in and we see how much cavalry the Eagles have coming back, but I worry about the Roos’ defence, especially without Ben McKay, and can see the West Coast talls doing some damage in my upset of the week.
A wounded Richmond could easily make a statement that they’re not done with yet against the Giants, who have never really taken to the MCG, but I’m not gutsy enough to do that. Freo in the west should have Sean Darcy and Nat Fyfe back, and by that measure be strong enough to hold St Kilda at bay.
Lock of the week? We’ll go for Port to beat Hawthorn at home because the fallout to the Power losing would be funny enough to cancel out my embarrassment.
(Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Adelaide, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, North Melbourne, GWS, Fremantle
Well, that was a fun way to kick off the season!
Sure, tipping didn’t start off fantastically, but it’s a dart-throwing contest and my aim’s a little off – just ask my teammates from my cricket Grand Final last week.
We should lock in the obvious ones first, just to leave more space to be wishy-washy later on.
Port Adelaide should get their first win of the season this weekend against Hawthorn and you wouldn’t expect the Demons to fall to the Suns. Unfortunately, that’s where the locks finish.
The Blues were scintillating in the final quarter against the Tigers and they’re always competitive against the Bulldogs. I lean slightly towards last year’s runners-up with something to prove and with the slight coaching turmoil at Carlton this week, but only just.
Sydney and Geelong always tend to fight out strong contests and the fact the Cats have to travel makes no difference to their records. With heavy rain expected, it comes down to who’s tougher in the clinches and who’s less reliant on their key forwards. The Swans for mine.
Adelaide’s record against Collingwood isn’t flash, but between these two teams at the MCG, the margins of the last five contests have been 0, 16, 27, 3 and 5. People are writing off the Crows but they’re a fit bunch, while the Magpies impressed against a shambolic team. I genuinely think this is a
50/50 game.
Brisbane beats Essendon but the Bombers owe it to their supporters to at least show up this week. There’ll be a response, but this is what happens when an overachiever starts with a tough draw.
West Coast will probably be the favoured team with a host of stars due to return this weekend, but they don’t have a convincing recent record against either the Kangaroos, nor at Marvel Stadium. Don’t pick three rucks, David Noble. When it’s a 50/50 and a team you support is involved, hedge your bets.
And finally, the Dockers snuck over the line missing key stars, most obviously Nat Fyfe and Sean Darcy. If even one of them return, they should be able to beat the Saints.
Nat Fyfe (Photo by Carson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Carlton, Geelong, Collingwood, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, West Coast, GWS, St Kilda
Right now, I’m thinking Carlton are going to be the story of this season and that something is off at the Bulldogs.
If both of these things are true, then the Blues are going to win this week and everything we thought we knew needs to be revisited.
I’m not convinced the tighter confines of the SCG suit the Sydney game, and it should play into the hands of Geelong being able to strangle the Swans.
The Cats were the better time when they met there last year, even though Sydney won by two points.
It’s easy to take Collingwood against Adelaide based on what we saw last week, with the Pies getting a confidence-boosting win and the Crows getting their hearts broken. I’m not convinced about Brisbane early in the season yet, and think Essendon can bounce back but playing it safe with the Lions given they should just have too many weapons.
Port over Hawthorn and Melbourne to beat the Suns in what looks a pretty ho-hum Saturday night.
The Eagles might be too professional for North, even on the roar, especially if they get a handful of players back like has been speculated.
GWS can officially end the Richmond era at the MCG on Sunday, and should do so with a deeper midfield against a team looking banged up already.
To finish off the round, I’m tipping the Saints to regroup and take down a Fremantle outfit that got a win last week but didn’t look like a finalist.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Carlton, Sydney, Collingwood, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, West Coast, Richmond, Fremantle
Welp, a decisively average score of five for me last week condemns me to an early deficit. I’ve got an ambition to rectify that, right after I see a cardiologist given the ending of that game last Sunday.
I might need to see a neurologist, too, given my brain remains thoroughly blown at Carlton’s splendid win over Richmond last week.
The Blues’ run doesn’t get any easier, given they’re up against the Dogs tonight. COVID means no Jack Martin, Adam Cerra or coach Michael Voss, but the addition of Sam Walsh into the side is encouraging.
The Dogs will be looking to bounce back from their opening round loss, and this won’t be a blow-out either way, but the Blues have a strangely genuine hype around them and I’m on board.
Speaking of genuine hype, there’s apparently nothing else that matters tomorrow night than Buddy kicking his 1000th (spoiler alert: I don’t think he will… just yet). Sydney and Geelong both looked incredible last weekend, making this a very tough pick – I’ll go the Swans.
The Crows produced about a quarter and a half of magic football last week, falling short at literally the last second. It’s the type of footy that – if produced in a full game – would usually be enough for me to tip over the Magpies, but Collingwood shone brightly last weekend and will win this one, especially because it’s in Melbourne.
The rest of Saturday’s tips look easy enough: Hawthorn looked encouragingly good in Sam Mitchell’s coaching debut, but Port should be far too classy at home; the Suns will be buoyed by a classy win last week but are little chance against the Dees; and Essendon were just so underwhelming last week I have no trouble picking the Lions to move to 2-0.
Sunday’s trio of matches are harder. The Eagles, just quietly, didn’t look awful last weekend, and advantageously will garner a few integral players back into their 22 against North. I shot myself in the foot backing them last week, but I have marginally more trust in them than the Kangas, so I’ll do it again.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Freo, too, should be winning against the Saints at home, while I’ll back the Giants to consign the Tigers to 0-2.
| Round 2 | Tim | Dem | Cam | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WB vs CAR | WB | WB | CAR | CAR | WB |
| SYD vs GEE | SYD | SYD | GEE | SYD | SYD |
| COL vs ADE | COL | ADE | COL | COL | COL |
| ESS vs BL | BL | BL | BL | BL | BL |
| PA vs HAW | PA | PA | PA | PA | PA |
| GCS vs MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL |
| NM vs WCE | WCE | NM | WCE | WCE | WCE |
| RCH vs GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS | RCH |
| FRE vs STK | FRE | FRE | STK | FRE | FRE |
| ROLLING SCORE | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
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