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Opinion
We’re heading for the finish line now.
Just seven rounds remain for the AFL season until we reach the (most hated bye in sports and then the) finals. And if you’re in strife, whether it’s your team on the ladder or your tipping in the rankings, you’re fast running out of time to make up the difference.
That’s what makes this weekend, despite being almost as challenging as a fortnight ago, such a godsend. Yes, a majority of these games can go either way, but this is the ticket to get one or two back on the competition – or extend your lead.
I’ve narrowed the gap to The Crowd back to a solitary tip, so I’ll be being a bit more adventurous with my choices this week. If it comes unstuck, it comes unstuck: but it’s better to die on your feet than live on your knees, as Midnight Oil said.
Here’s hoping all our tipping seasons end better than Peter Garrett’s political career! Let’s get right to it and see what the experts have to say.
Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Richmond, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Adelaide, Carlton
It might not be as line-ball as a fortnight ago from a tipping perspective, but this week promises to be just as fascinating, with a number of teams in similar positions all squaring off.
We begin in Geelong, where the Cats host Melbourne in a genuine top-of-the-table blockbuster. Part of me believes the Demons have earned the right to be one of the Cats’ few ‘home’ games at the MCG this year, but hey, try convincing the AFL to send Collingwood or Richmond down there these days.
Max Gawn and Luke Jackson are big ins for Melbourne in more ways than just stature, while there’s never a bad time to bring Joel Selwood back into your line-up. It’s the Dees’ unmatched ability to shut down teams forward of centre that sways me: it’s rarely a good idea to tip against Geelong at the Cattery, but I’m doing so here.
I tipped against my Bulldogs last week on the road against a finals-bound side, but I’m returning to loyalty here. This is a genuine line-ball game, though: the Swans have been up and down for much of the year, and lost to the Dogs in Round 3, but are still the better side with a strong group of players that, on their day, can beat anyone (like the top two on the ladder, for instance).
Tim English is a whopping in for the Dogs, and was best afield last time these two sides met. That’s enough for me.
Saturday starts dull but should then build into something more substantial. Collingwood will beat North Melbourne by about as much as they fancy – with percentage starting to really matter for those wafer-thin margins between finals spots, the Roos probably can’t expect any mercy.
The most fascinating match of the round has been buried in the Thursday twilight slot: an unlucky Gold Coast, fresh off two thrilling losses, faces a red-hot Richmond outfit minus Dustin Martin and (even more crucially) Nick Vlastuin.
The Tigers made their name on stirring victories on the road as much as at the MCG, and Dion Prestia’s return makes their midfield good enough to match anyone’s. I also have an inkling that the Suns might have expended plenty of energy against Port Adelaide and Collingwood.
St Kilda hosting Fremantle is probably the pick of the Saturday night matches – the Saints picked themselves up and got back in the race with their win over Carlton, while the Dockers escaped quite a tricky match against Port Adelaide.
The Saints bested the Dockers, in Perth no less, earlier this year, and I feel Freo will be out for a bit of redemption from then. They’re a more miserly defensive unit since then, and I don’t want to be fooled by the Saints after one strong match (that they could easily have bottled, anyway).
If they’re serious, Port Adelaide should beat GWS at home every day of the week. A loss to them here proved crucial in them missing the finals back in 2019, and would just about provide the death knell on their season this time. The Power were excellent against Fremantle last week, and have enough firepower forward of the ball to get the job done here against a loose Giants defence.
Speed-run through Sunday: Brisbane losing to Essendon at the Gabba would be the year’s biggest shock, and I can’t see it happening no matter how well the Bombers are playing right now. I’m sensing an upset for Adelaide in their trip to face Hawthorn at Marvel – the conditions should suit their big-marking forwards, and a Hawthorn defence minus Sam Frost might find that hard to cope with. Look for Rory Laird to rack up a billion touches in midfield, too.
Finishing off is a real danger game for Carlton – out in Perth against a rejuvenated West Coast. Jacob Weitering returns at a vital time, but with Nic Naitanui back too, the absence of Marc Pittonet could be telling. Still, I’m all chips in on the Blues this year, and won’t be backing out on them now.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Melbourne, Sydney, Collingwood, Gold Coast, Fremantle, GWS, Brisbane, Adelaide, Carlton
Each week feels like it’s going faster and faster. Unless you’re a North Melbourne fan I suppose.
As the Kangaroos of the Roar’s tipping competition, I will continue to aim high and shoot for the stars, because the alternative is trying nothing and continuing to not improve. Join me, David Noble.
Thursday night footy this week is an absolute beauty between the Demons and the team that I’ve
been extremely bullish on for a couple of months, the Cats.
This is a genuinely interesting match, with the top two teams coming off easy victories despite missing some key personnel. Unfortunately for the Cats, Tom Stewart isn’t returning any time soon.
It leans the tip in favour of the Demons, but this definitely has Grand Final potential in a couple of months’ time.
Since the 2016 Grand Final, the Swans and the Bulldogs have only played at the SCG twice, which is hardly going to give us any indication of how they’ll play the ground.
Both teams have been disappointing in recent times, but only one can really cause some damage this season. I expect the Swans to bounce back.
It feels like no one really wants to claim a finals spot with the amount of teams slipping up recently, while the Magpies have started to climb the ladder to get that briefcase that they can cash in on guaranteed September appearance. They’re well set for finals and they’ll beat North.
Man, the Suns really shot themselves in the foot by not holding on last week, while the Tigers did what they needed to do against West Coast. The absence of Nick Vlastuin is big – he’s arguably Richmond’s most important structural piece.
Gold Coast must win to keep their season alive and I think they might just do that.
No two teams garner bigger overreactions than St Kilda and Fremantle in season 2022 and it’s no different heading into this week. The contests between these clubs are generally really exciting and it’ll be well worth a watch, but Fremantle have to win this one with relative ease.
St Kilda’s defence conceded a typically massive number of shots last week and Dougal Howard is injured. This could get ugly.
Port Adelaide showed some toughness to get back into the game against the Dockers, while the Giants were best equipped at playing soccer against the Hawks. Drier conditions will let GWS play that attacking style of footy and I might go with the upset here.
Brisbane will beat Essendon quite comfortably but if you read my piece last week, that’s hardly the
end of the world – particularly if you watched their win against Sydney.
When you think of the Hawks playing the Crows, I defy you to think of any matches other the 2007
elimination final, or the 2012 preliminary final. I think the Crows get the choccies here, mostly because Lance Franklin hasn’t played for the Hawks in nearly a decade.
Finally, a few might think the Eagles are a chance against Carlton. But Jacob Weitering’s back, there’ll be size in
defence and the Blues won’t kick so badly again.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Gold Coast, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Hawthorn, Carlton.
There are a few sweet match-ups this week, with all games except one having some kind of finals-shaping meaning attached to them.
Geelong are right in the zone at the moment. If there’s a ‘hot hand’ in the AFL, it’s them. It’s the perfect time to tackle Melbourne, especially at the Cattery.
Will the Dees produce a flex like they did against Brisbane, or can Chris Scott find a way to bring them down? The Cats tend to be Tarzan in home and away and Jane in the finals, so I’ll stick with them here; but I wouldn’t back them with stolen money in a final against Melbourne.
Sydney are on the nose a little, and we know how inconsistent the Bulldogs have been all year. The Swans should be stung after losing to the rabble from Windy Hill, but Luke Beveridge will have his men steaming in what shapes as a cut-throat encounter for them.
I reckon the Dogs will get up and keep having a say.
Collingwood will obviously beat North – what a sad lot the Roos are at the moment. A far more interesting clash awaits up north, where a chastened Gold Coast against a weakened Richmond will be must-watch.
The Suns are out of the finals race for all intents and purposes, but that’s not what they’ll believe internally. This is their last stand. Can the experience of the TIgers hold them at bay, even without Dusty, Trent Cotchin and cp.?
St Kilda could be back on the march after taking down Carlton last week, and the Dockers also need to prove themselves back in Melbourne after they lost to those Blues the week before. What a tasty match-up this is.
The Saints took the Dockers down in Perth earlier this year, and can do so again.
Port must also have one last throw at the stumps to keep their finals hopes alive, and simply have to beat GWS at home. Otherwise it’s time to bring that list rebuild forward, and hopefully look for a new coach – Ken Hinkley’s time is over.
Brisbane, developing a reputation for being flat-track bullies, will account for Essendon on Sunday. Hawthorn will get another win against Adelaide. And Carlton will be too strong for a tricky West Coast, who are keen to take some scalps in the final rounds.
Harry McKay of the Blues celebrates. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Richmond, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Hawthorn, Carlton
Six out of nine last week, with one saving grace being I wasn’t the only member of the tipping panel fooled by Carlton and the Swans, both suffering significant finals-race setbacks with losses.
As for my ill-fated tip of the Hawks over the Giants, I have no comment.
Onwards we forge, as Round 17 begins with a magnificent contest between the Cats and Demons. It’s fair to say the Demons are back on track with consecutive wins, but Geelong have (just quietly) snuck into top two contention and will be feeling fresh after a bye last week.
These two are ridiculously evenly matched but given the Demons’ poor record at GMBHA Stadium – they’ve played 60 games here, winning or drawing level in only a third of those – Geelong start to look like a good tip. When in doubt, however, always fall back to embedded biases, so I’ll go Melbourne.
If AFL sides were personified as humans, neither Sydney nor the Bulldogs would be the type of friend you’d rely on for anything, let alone results. Case in point is the Swans’ awful loss to the Dons last week, while the Dogs are stranded outside the top eight.
Recency bias leans me towards the Dogs, given their strength over the Swans lately, and gut feel says they’ll prevail.
Onto Saturday, and we’re kind of at the point where any team that can produce footy with even remote competitiveness are near certainties to beat North, and Collingwood are definitely a team that more than fulfils that basic criterion. Need I say more?
The Suns are into the ‘mathematical contenders’ stage of a season, but it’s impossible to deny they’re still playing their hearts out and should do so against the Tigers. Does it mean they’ll win? Unfortunately, no: the Tigers – even with personnel issues – should be too strong and officially bury Stewie Dew’s finals aspirations.
Saints fans would be forgiven for not recognising their team last week, as the brilliant win over the Blues flipped the script of mediocrity that had slipped into the club’s 2022. There’s new life in the Saints’ season, but Freo themselves are scrapping for a top-four position and should avenge Round 2’s frustrating loss with a win at Marvel.
Port – like the Suns a few hours earlier – are only mathematically still in the finals race, but if they bring the effort from last week they should hold off a determined Giants at home. This tip has upset written all over it, though.
Sunday, at first glance, seems suspiciously straight forward, but all three games are deceptively tricky to pick. The Lions – if they’re serious – should take care of the Dons at the Gabba, but they’d nevertheless be wary of an Essendon outfit up and about after last week.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
The Hawks and Crows both show flashes of genuine competitiveness mixed in with a lot of poor football, and despite neither being pretty good away from home (the Hawks especially struggling at Docklands recently), might put up an entertaining match that the Hawks should win.
As for the weekend’s final game – Carlton after a loss, in Perth, against a relatively healthy West Coast team beginning to fill with a smidgen of confidence. Even with Jacob Weitering back, this absolutely screams danger game for the Blues. They’ll win, but I cannot emphasise enough how much I’m worried about this tip.
| Round 17 | Tim | Dem | Cam | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEE vs MEL | MEL | MEL | GEE | MEL | MEL |
| SYD vs WB | WB | SYD | WB | WB | SYD |
| COL vs NM | COL | COL | COL | COL | COL |
| GCS vs RCH | RCH | GCS | GCS | RCH | GCS |
| STK vs FRE | FRE | FRE | STK | FRE | STK |
| PA vs GWS | PA | GWS | PA | PA | PA |
| BL vs ESS | BL | BL | BL | BL | BL |
| HAW vs ADE | ADE | ADE | HAW | HAW | HAW |
| WCE vs CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR |
| ROLLING SCORE | 93 | 82 | 86 | 87 | 94 |
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