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Opinion
There is some pessimism around Queensland’s chances in Origin III after they got towelled up in game two and the shock withdrawal of Cameron Munster with Covid but here’s my three-point plan to prevent NSW from clinching the series.
It all revolves around the emotional, tactical and technical elements of the game.
I was on SEN Radio the other day with Ian Healy and Patty Welsh and I had to somehow convince them that the Maroons were still a chance.
The 44-12 result in Perth was extremely disappointing and I think even though Queensland were in the match until early in the second half, they were pretty much outplayed the whole 80 minutes.
Let’s start with the emotional element.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Queensland’s team were given a bit of a history lesson last week about Arthur Beetson and the passion he brought to the first Origin game despite being a 35-year-old plucked out of reserve grade at the end of his career.
The Maroons have always ridden on emotion – it’s not always publicised during a series when a Queensland stalwart is retiring from rep footy like Darren Lockyer in 2011 and Petero Civoniceva the year after, but it’s something which is often spoken about in the dressing room when someone who is coming to the end of their career at this level.
There’s no obvious candidate this year but unless you’re one of those legends like Locky or Petero who get to announce when they’re going, you never know when you’re playing your last Origin.
That could be the case for someone like Josh Papalii on Wednesday night.
He’s copped a fair bit of criticism for his efforts in the first couple of matches and Billy Slater hasn’t given him big minutes.
Josh Papalii. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Papa needs to unleash from the word go, be like Big Artie and put all friendships aside.
I saw the other day how Junior Paulo was sticking up for him because they’re mates from their days together at the Raiders.
That’s all good but once the referee’s whistle is blown, the Queenslanders have to bring the physicality.
Origin in the early days used to be about hatred between the states. These days that’s more like a dislike between the sides because so many of them are friends at club level.
It’s time to put the friendships to one side and make it personal. They have to be aggressive, physical and ruthless, which are necessary Origin traits you’ve got to have to be successful.
I’m not saying Papa or anyone else needs to resort to some of the tactics from the early days but he needs to show NSW that Queensland won’t be intimidated. Put on some big shots early or make a damaging run to get the emotions up for everyone wearing a Maroons jersey and the 52,000 fans that will pack out Suncorp Stadium.
Tino Fa’asuamaleaui can also do this. The Maroons need enforcers who are going to put the Blues on their backsides.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Which leads me to the tactical element of Origin III.
I’d be switching Tino to the front row and bringing Tom Gilbert straight in at lock with Lindsay Collins back to the bench.
Papa and Tino can get Queensland early dominance in the middle with Collins going back to that impact role off the bench that he did so well in game one with Patrick Carrigan, and Gilbert can play big minutes like Reuben Cotter did in the first match before he got injured.
Gilbert does all those things you need from a busy middle forward like Cotter. I see it every week at the Cowboys, he’s leading the line speed and kick chase, third man into a tackle and he is strong at marker.
There’s been a bit of talk around about whether Billy will keep Tom Dearden at five-eighth now that Cam Munster is out or whether he will switch Ben Hunt to the halves and start Harry Grant at hooker with Dearden on the bench.
I like the Hunt-Grant dummy-half combination that they’ve used in the first two games and I wouldn’t be changing that.
Dearden is an Origin type of player even though this is his debut. He’s a strong defender, a good left-foot kicker and competes hard on every play.
He’s got a few Cowboys around him in Gilbert, Valentine Holmes and Jeremiah Nanai so his club combinations will help the Maroons.
Then we come to the technical side of things.
And this is where Cameron Smith as assistant coach can be influential.
Queensland need to push the envelope with the referees as far as holding down in the ruck, kick pressure on Nathan Cleary, upsetting the apple cart to put NSW off their game.
Smith was the master of stuff like that and was able to influence the referees to get the game suited to the style of his team whether he was playing for Melbourne, Queensland or Australia.
There are only a few stats that I really care about week to week in footy matches and NSW dominated the Maroons in all of them in Perth.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Time in possession – the Blues won that 60-40%. Completed sets – 88-75%. Metres gained – 1501 v 922, that wasn’t even close. Kick metres was 734 to 641 so Daly Cherry-Evans needs to be superior to Cleary.
The other one that you can’t ignore and it’s where Slater’s influence will be crucial is kick reception. The back five for Queensland in overall running metres in game one was 980m to NSW versus 583 for Queensland but in game two it was 871m to 409m.
Kalyn Ponga needs to be better at catching the ball on the full, running it back hard and starting their sets strongly. Billy was the best of that in his time with Queensland and I am sure they will have a massive focus on this part of the game on Wednesday night.
Their back five need to be courageous – in backing themselves to get to kicks on the full as well as charging into the defensive line at full pelt to get the sets started. It requires unbelievable toughness to get that done.
For all the stars that the Maroons had in their golden era in Smith, Jonathan Thurston, Lockyer and Cooper Cronk, some of the unsung heroes were guys like Brent Tate, Justin Hodges, Greg Inglis and Darius Boyd who used to take a lot of those tough carries early to get the team on the front foot.
(Image: AAP)
Then they would drive the Blues back in tackles when they were leading the kick chase and make them uncomfortable. The Maroons need to follow that lead on Wednesday night. That’s what Origin is all about.
And if you want to get the crowd involved, that’s the best way to do it. Nothing brings the Queensland fans to their feet like one of those big effort plays and if you’re lucky enough to force a handling error when you’re defending or break through the line on a kick return, it can have a snowball effect.
If they can do that for the first three quarters of the game and be there or thereabouts heading down the final stretch, there’s no reason why Queensland can’t upset the Blues.
They did it in similar circumstances just two years ago after losing game two by a big margin and if they get the emotional, tactical and technical elements right in the series decider, the trophy could be heading north of the border again.
As the great Mal Meninga used to say in his time as Queensland coach: “It doesn’t matter what the game plan is as long as we all believe in it.”
Michael Hagan is a former dual-premiership winning first grade player and current assistant coach of Australia's Kangaroos team. Hagan played 183 games for Canterbury and Newcastle and represented Queensland five times. He transitioned into a successful coach and took the Knights to a premiership in his first year in charge back in 2001. He went onto coach 205 NRL games and six times for Queensland in Origin.