Opinion
After 192 home-and-away matches, the minor premiership a foregone conclusion and the grand reopening of Allianz Stadium, we are down to only eight teams in the race for this year’s premiership.
Five of last year’s finalists – the Panthers, Eels, Storm, Roosters and Rabbitohs – return for another tilt at the title, while the Sharks, Cowboys and Raiders make their September returns after missing out last year.
In the case of the Sharks and Raiders, both return after dropping out of the top eight following finals appearances in 2020, while the Cowboys will fly the flag for Queensland in its first September campaign since their miraculous run to the 2017 grand final.
Here is your preview to the first week of the finals.
Penrith Panthers (first) vs Parramatta Eels (fourth)
Friday, September 9, 7:55pm
Bluebet Stadium, Sydney
This season: Eels won 22-20 at Bluebet Stadium in Round 9; Eels won 34-10 at Commbank Stadium in Round 20.
Last meeting in a final: Panthers won 8-6 in the second semi-final, 2021 at BB Print Stadium in Mackay.
Some serious questions were raised about whether the Panthers had the desire to defend their premiership after they suffered a humiliating 36-0 trial loss to the Eels just before the start of the season proper.
However, Ivan Cleary’s men proved up to the task, winning 20 of their 24 regular season matches to finish as minor premiers for the second time in three seasons, with the losses coming against the Eels (twice), Storm and Cowboys.
After sparing half his side the trip to Townsville, Cleary will get all of his big guns back, including co-captain Nathan Cleary, for the blockbuster qualifying final.
It was against the blue and golds at Commbank Stadium in Round 20 where Cleary Jr was sent off for a lifting tackle on Dylan Brown on what was a dirty night for the Mountain Men as they suffered a 34-10 defeat which threatened to derail their premiership defence.
Nathan Cleary. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
It was the Eels’ second win over the premiers that year, following on from a 22-20 win back in Round 9, which was the Panthers’ first loss on home soil since Round 19, 2019.
After a season plagued by inconsistency, including losses to the past three wooden spooners (Wests Tigers, Bulldogs and Broncos), Brad Arthur’s side appear to be hitting form at the right time, claiming the coveted double chance in the final round of the regular season.
While this is the third time in six years they’ve finished in the top four, they’ll be wanting to make it third time lucky, having crashed out in straight sets after finishing fourth in both 2017 and 2020.
They’ll also be fuelled by the heartbreak of last year’s 8-6 semi-final exit at the hands of the Panthers in Mackay.
But while the Eels were able to beat the Panthers twice this year, the fact Ivan Cleary’s side will be close to full strength back at home should give them the advantage.
For the winner: a week off and a home preliminary final likely to be played at Accor Stadium.
For the loser: await the winner of Saturday’s Storm vs Raiders elimination final and host them in the first semi-final, likely next Friday night.
Prediction: Penrith Panthers by eight points.
Melbourne Storm (fifth) vs Canberra Raiders (eighth)
Saturday, September 10, 5:40pm
AAMI Park, Melbourne
This season: Storm won 30-16 in Wagga Wagga in Round 5; Raiders won 20-16 at AAMI Park in Round 18.
Last meeting in a final: Storm won 30-10 in the second preliminary final, 2020 at Suncorp Stadium.
Having lost the final two matches of their regular season to drop out of the top four, the Storm are going to have to make history if they are to claim a fifth premiership this year.
No team has won four straight matches to win the premiership, and not under any finals format, since the Wests Tigers in 2005.
Further, this will be just the second time in the past decade that Craig Bellamy’s side will play a first-week knock-out final, after previously finishing sixth in 2014 and losing its home elimination final to eventual grand finalists the Bulldogs by 28-4.
From being on top of the ladder after Round 9 (with their only loss being against Parramatta in golden point), the Storm suffered through a poor second half of the season, losing eight of 15 matches to finish fifth.
These are not results we are used to seeing with the Storm, but after seven straight top-four finishes, the success they enjoyed during that period is finally starting to catch up.
Awaiting them in the first elimination final are the Canberra Raiders, who had sat as low as third-last after Round 8 but defied the season-ending injury to captain Josh Hodgson to win 12 of their next 16 matches to sneak into eighth.
They thrashed the Sea Eagles 48-6 at home in Round 24, then with a finals berth all but ensured, embarrassed wooden spooners the Wests Tigers 56-10 at Leichhardt Oval.
Ricky Stuart’s side have now won their past two matches by a combined scoreline of 104-16, making them a scary proposition.
Further, the Raiders no longer fear the trip to Melbourne, having won on each of their past four visits to the AFL capital, including twice in 2019, and just recently by 20-16 in Round 18.
That latter match saw Storm fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen suffer a season-ending knee injury and the Victorian club struggled to cover his absence, despite four straight wins between Rounds 20-23.
Thus, the Green Machine head south with nothing to lose and will be hoping to send the Storm on an early post-season holiday.
For the winner: travel to Sydney to face the loser of the previous night’s Panthers vs Eels qualifying final at either Commbank Stadium or Accor Stadium.
For the loser: season over.
Prediction: Canberra Raiders by six points.
Cronulla Sharks (second) vs North Queensland Cowboys (third)
Saturday, September 10, 7:50pm
Pointsbet Stadium, Sydney
This season: Sharks won 26-12 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium in Round 18.
Last meeting in a final: Cowboys won 15-14 in the first elimination final, 2017 at Allianz Stadium.
After both sides missed the finals last year, the Sharks and Cowboys return to September with impressive campaigns under first and second-year coaches – and former Roosters teammates, Craig Fitzgibbon and Todd Payten.
In particular, the northerners rocketed up the ladder from 15th to third, easily recording the best season of the post-Johnathan Thurston era with a brand of footy reminiscent of their 2015 premiership-winning season, in which Payten was an assistant coach.
Though they are coming off a 38-8 thrashing of Penrith at home last week, it must be noted that their opponents rested half of their best side with their view being to peak in September.
The Sharks only missed the finals by one position last year but were quick to climb back up the ladder under rookie coach Fitzgibbon, their second-place finish the best regular-season result since they won the minor premiership in 1999.
Sharks coach Craig Fitzgibbon. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Their return to September has been attributed to the impact made by off-season recruits Dale Finucane and Nicho Hynes, with both deputising as captain at various stages in Wade Graham’s absence.
In their return to Cronulla after two years based at Kogarah Oval, the side has turned PointsBet Stadium into a fortress, with only the Sydney Roosters able to leave the Shire with two premiership points, in Round 12.
Since then, no team has won more matches than the Sharks, who in that period were victorious in 11 of 12 matches, including beating the Cowboys by 26-12 in Townsville in their only regular season clash in Round 18.
Their resurgence has fans excited at the prospect of their club saluting for a second time in seven years, and should they go all the way they would do so exactly six years to the day after they won their maiden premiership against the Melbourne Storm in 2016.
The Sharks’ strong form all season should get them the points in this one, but not without a serious challenge.
For the winner: a week off and a home preliminary final to be played at Allianz Stadium (if the Sharks win) or QCB Stadium (if the Cowboys win).
For the loser: await the winner of Sunday’s Roosters vs Rabbitohs elimination final and host them in the second semi-final, likely next Saturday night.
Prediction: Cronulla Sharks by 12 points.
Sydney Roosters (sixth) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (seventh)
Sunday, September 11, 4:05pm
Allianz Stadium, Sydney
This season: Rabbitohs won 28-16 at Accor Stadium in Round 3; Roosters won 26-16 at Allianz Stadium in Round 25.
Last meeting in a final: Roosters won 30-6 in the second qualifying final, 2019 at the Sydney Cricket Ground.
The redevelopment of Allianz Stadium will come full circle on Sunday, when the Roosters host the Rabbitohs at the rebuilt venue for the second consecutive week.
It will be the ‘new’ venue’s first finals match, this coming nearly four years after the ‘old’ venue hosted its final sporting event between these two same sides in the 2018 preliminary final, won on that occasion by the Chooks.
The Roosters won 26-16 on Friday, earning the right to host this Sunday’s rematch. It is the first time any two sides face each other in consecutive weeks since the Sharks and Raiders met in the final round of the 2020 season, then faced each other again in the first week of the finals, with the Raiders winning both times.
The Roosters found themselves outside the top eight as late as Round 18 but have hit form at the right time, having not been beaten since the State of Origin series.
Their impressive late-season surge has been attributed to the good form of captain James Tedesco and mid-season signing Matthew Lodge, who has yet to taste defeat for the Tricolours.
In three consecutive SCG matches, they dominated the Broncos, Cowboys and Wests Tigers, the latter by the astonishing scoreline of 72-6, while they also edged out the Storm by 18-14 on a Friday night at AAMI Park in Round 24.
Meantime, the Rabbitohs lost their first two games in 2022, before beating the Roosters by 28-16 at Accor Stadium to register their first win under rookie coach Jason Demetriou.
They finished a respectable seventh on the ladder, with a 14-10 record, and will look to have the last laugh by knocking their rivals from Bondi Junction out of the finals.
While there is nothing the Rabbitohs would love to do than to end their bitter rivals’ season three weeks short of the grand final, the Chooks’ recent form should prove too strong.
For the winner: face the loser of the Sharks vs Cowboys qualifying final at either Allianz Stadium (if the Sharks lose) or QCB Stadium (if the Cowboys lose).
For the loser: season over.
Prediction: Sydney Roosters by 16 points.
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