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AFL Finals Focus: Here's how the Lions inflicted an upset for the ages... and why an eye gouge could cost them everything

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9th September, 2022
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“Nobody beats Vitas Gerulaitis 17 times in a row.”

One of the most iconic quotes in tennis came at the semi-finals of the 1980 Masters series, when Vitas Gerulaitis, after 16 consecutive defeats, finally took down the great Jimmy Connors.

Four consecutive wins from Melbourne over Brisbane heading into their semi final doesn’t have quite the same ring to it. But with two of those 10-goal thrashings in 2022 alone, including one under a month ago, plus a humbling qualifying final defeat last year, few gave the Lions a hope in hell – especially without Joe Daniher.

What followed was a performance as remarkable as it was unexpected; not only did the Lions take down their bogey side, on their own turf, with a second half for the ages at the MCG, but they did it after falling 28 points behind with just seconds remaining before half time.

Nobody embarrasses Brisbane four times in a row.

Few matches can have been this unlikely MID-GAME; you can normally sense an upset brewing in the opening minutes, when the underdogs show up with an intensity and a determination to inflict the unlikely.

Does the lack of the same tonight make this even more special for the Lions? The host of fans in maroon, blue and gold that drowned out the Dees for their finest hour at the MCG since winning a third consecutive flag all of two decades ago, would say so, that’s for sure.

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Charlie Cameron of the Lions celebrates a goal.

Charlie Cameron of the Lions celebrates a goal. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Going in with such a Melbourne monkey on their back, the last thing the Lions could afford, having been crunched from the very first bounce by the Demons in Round 23, was a sluggish start. But yet again, it seemed from the outset like this would be a very long night for the visitors.

With the Dees moving the ball aggressively, consistently biting off the dangerous, risky ball into the corridor, and destructive out of the centre, only inaccurate kicking prevented another 30-plus point deficit, just as it had been at quarter time at the Gabba.

Notably, the Dees weren’t mucking around – inclined to handball more than most other teams this year, ranking sixth for average handpasses and 13th for kicks, they completely bucked the trend in the semi final.

63 of their 94 first-term disposals were kicks, as they repeatedly banged the ball on the boot from clearances, keener to get the ball into attack and trouble the Lions’ famously vulnerable defence than to begin a chain of handballs and exit the stoppage via their usual approach.

Fascinating too was the Dees’ willingness to dare with ball in hand. Their aggression from stoppages, particularly centre bounces, is well known, but this new attacking approach came even from defence.

Case in point: when Max Gawn, a skilful ruckman but a ruckman nonetheless, intercepted in defensive 50, he immediately looked to move the ball into the corridor. Targeting Luke Jackson, his kick wasn’t ideal, but the spillage created opportunities: the Lions were lackadaisical in defending the danger zone all through the first term.

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Jackson was the first to gather the spill, he gave to a speeding Petracca, who in turn found Charlie Spargo in space inside 50, with only Brandon Starcevich at the back for the Lions. Spargo missed the shot, but the early tone had been set.

Earlier, Steven May had done likewise – pumping a kick-in down the guts, the ball was marked strongly by Gawn, sent into the ruck for much of the match and ruling the skies in the opening minutes. From there, the play would end in the arms of Alex Neal-Bullen, whose set shot split the middle.

Transition defending has been a problem for the Lions all season – heck, for four years now. It’s the reason why they finished sixth this year rather than right up the pointy end; it’s the reason why they’ve continually botched it in finals up until now. When the Demons won the ball at the coalface – and it happened almost every time to start this game – invariably there would be red and blue jumpers in space in attacking spots.

Neal-Bullen had seven disposals (all kicks, of course), five marks, a goal and two further score assists from the start, but he was given a ridiculous amount of space out on a half-forward flank all evening. Whether his opponent was Daniel Rich or Keidean Coleman, the Lions’ resident rebounders who set up to sag off, no one was willing or able to pick up the slack as good teams do.

To their infinite credit, the Lions fixed this up totally after quarter time, denying the Demons anywhere near the space they did early inside 50 – the Dees took six marks from their first nine inside 50s, and just three more from their next 37, up until midway through the final quarter. But in truth, the match should probably have been over by then.

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The issue was that the Dees just kept missing. Few of the shots were easy – in truth, the Lions butchered the simpler chances through a Cam Rayner miss directly in front and a fumble from Dan McStay with the goal mouth at his mercy – but this was where they kicked everything at the Gabba in Round 23.

With 6.2 on the board by quarter time in that match, things were just about over already. Here, with 3.6 to 1.3, it was still game on – if the Lions were bold enough.

Problems still persisted, though – one passage of play after a strong Ben Brown mark directly in the centre square summing things up perfectly. Darcy Gardiner had sagged off Luke Jackson to stay a kick behind the play, and when Brown marked, he was ideally placed. The issue was that nobody had thought to cover Jake Melksham, who burst into space on the flank. It took a simple kick to him, and suddenly, Gardiner was forced to abandon his post and man the mark there.

The play amounted to nothing, but it told of the Lions’ lack of defensive structure. Keep losing the midfield battle, and they couldn’t possibly hang in forever.

In the end, though, that was the fix: greater pressure on the Demons’ ball-carriers, and a split of the clearances and contested possessions, was really all it took to flip this game on a dime.

It started with just seconds left in the first half, moments after Kysaiah Pickett had roved an ill-thought-out spoil from Jack Payne with brilliance to extend the margin to 28 points. From the bounce, and with under 20 seconds to play, Dayne Zorko one the clearance, blasted it long, put the Dees’ defence under pressure, and from the resultant spillage, Callum Ah Chee gathered and dribbled through from close range with the last kick of the half.

Game on again.

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Things had already begun to change: the Lions began to control the ball far more in the second term, particularly on the rebound. They didn’t concede a single score from defensive half intercepts in the first half – no surprise with Daniel Rich and Keidean Coleman among their leading possession-winners. The issue was keeping control of the ball – with just 17 marks, their uncontested ball was virtually non-existent, and the moment the ball hit the ground, the Demons came in a wave to surge the ball back into attack.

But that Zorko clearance marked a sizeable change in the midfield battle. With Jarrod Berry moved into the guts at half time to replace outmatched youngster Deven Robertson in tagging Clayton Oliver, the Lions found a balance that eluded them early on.

Oliver had 10 contested possessions and six clearances to the main break, so despite a below-average 12-disposal haul, was having a huge impact at the coalface. Berry couldn’t shut him out completely, but his scragging play, regularly shunting Oliver away from the ball and allowing space for Lachie Neale to begin to exert his influence, had far more impact than Robertson could hope to have.

He’ll face serious scrutiny for an apparent eye-gouge on Oliver in the third quarter, and the Lions will be praying for some sort of reprieve: because surely one P. Dangerfield is in his sights for the preliminary final.

It baffles me a bit that Berry, so good in 2020 as a fully-fledged midfielder before being restricted by injuries last season, has struggled to get opportunities in close this year. Especially with Jarryd Lyons out of the side, and Zac Bailey largely playing an outside role this finals series. Surely, should he play in the prelim, he’ll be given a similar task. That’s a sizeable ‘if’, though.

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With 30 inside 50s to 22 and a 24-13 clearance advantage, the Dees’ edge in those key stats had mostly been built by their barnstorming start. After half time, the Lions began to close the gap.

Brisbane began in a rush: with four of the first five clearances in the third term, and seven of the first eight inside 50s, the Dees’ defence was placed under hefty pressure for the first time all night. And against a forward line as dangerous as the Lions’, even without Joe Daniher, that can be telling.

Eric Hipwood was the first to get off the chain: shunted off the ball with regularity by May in the first half, he was liberated by a slight move upfield that saw Harrison Petty shifted to him.

Petty, for the most part, had a more than decent night, but his lack of closing speed and inability to force Hipwood into one-on-one contests told. May certainly wouldn’t have allowed himself to be nudged off-balance in the opening minutes, allowing a simple Hipwood mark and goal that really got the Lions up and about.

Suddenly, even Charlie Cameron, barely sighted until then, began to explode. Whenever isolated against Michael Hibberd, the goalsneak’s smarts shone even through an early foot injury that left him ever so slightly hobbled. His left-foot snap after winning a ground ball in the third term was of the highest class.

That territory domination extended to the other end: where the Dees had taken six uncontested marks inside 50 in the first term alone, it took until the final quarter to find a seventh.

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Equally, the Lions were far more dangerous on the transition – moving the ball quickly but cautiously, using the wide spaces of the ‘G for their army of speedy outside runners, they went from 17 marks at quarter time to 72 two quarters later.

Berry, too, relished the responsibility on the ball after an anonymous four touches out on a wing to half time. He’d not only shut down Oliver, but gather 22 second-half disposals of his own, including five clearances.

Neale, too, began to break free, helped in no small part by the presence of another big body in Berry alongside him opposed to Robertson. With only nine touches to quarter time, he’d finish with 26, 10 of them clearances.

He was far from as dominant as against Richmond, rarely involved in scoring chains, but no matter: he had Hugh McCluggage for that. The Rolls-Royce relished the breakeven of midfield contests – he’d have just one clearance of his own, but with 25 touches on the outside, the smooth-moving number six is the perfect man to dish a handball to on the run.

His goal in the third term to cut the margin to a point was the moment a stunning upset really, truly appeared possible.

Still, after the Demons burst clear with two quick goals after once again taking control of the centre bounces, it looked like the Lions, for all their pluck, would be outclassed. But this team just doesn’t lie down. It began with a nerveless shot from Darcy Fort, taken to the cleaners early by Gawn but good enough thereafter to force a curly question for Chris Fagan next week as to whether to recall concussed number one ruck Oscar McInerney.

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Remarkably, the Lions would score twice from stoppages in the first three quarters. The first was the goal to Ah Chee on the stroke of half time. The next came at the death in the third term; another surging clearance, a panicked Trent Rivers swamped by Daniel McStay, a holding the ball, a right-foot snap from advantage for Hipwood (who must have been really feeling it to try that).

Scores tied up at three quarter time.

The last quarter was a familiar tale for the Demons: often this year, they have run out of steam at the death. Things were beginning to go wrong – think Jack Viney kicking across goal just outside 50, desperate to find the corridor but succeeding in only finding Dan McStay. The worm had officially turned.

The stats by the end were telling – the Dees still led 55-53 in the inside 50s, but only a marginal difference where it had been domination in the first quarter. The Dees still extended their clearance lead to 51-37; but from the centre bounces, Berry’s inclusion saw the disparity fall from 7-1 before that Zorko clearance on the stroke of half time to 14-11 by the finish.

After losing the contested possession count by 23 in the first half, the Lions would win it by three in the second. It was enough – they didn’t need to dominate at the coalface, they just needed to make it a fair fight.

After six marks inside 50 to quarter time, the Dees would end up with only ten. Part of it was more stable defending behind the ball, with Gardiner often dropping off as a loose where Luke Jackson had occupied him early; part of it was simply more pressure on the ball-carrier. Whatever it was, it was a great credit to Chris Fagan to fix such a glaring problem so completely. It is without question his finest moment in charge.

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In the end, the telling moment came in the final two minutes. With the Dees needing a miracle, Jake Lever, notably underdone all season long, tried and failed to ride a desperate attempt from McStay to get him out of bounds. He’d put the ball to grass, try to regather it after shrugging the tackle, and was caught holding the ball.

Compounding the brain fade, he’d then take an eternity to give the ball back, and was pinged for a 50m penalty. It was inexplicably dumb from a footballer whose fall from the absolute elite defenders in the game last year to something far more mediocre has summed up Melbourne’s problems in 2022. In defence, far too often, it has been May or bust.

Up forward, aside from the dead-eyed Bayley Fritsch, their accuracy is far too hit or miss. For all Kysaiah Pickett’s roving brilliance, he just needs to nail goals like the one he dribbled into the post in the final minutes. The match was probably gone by then – indeed, the Dees would kick the next two goals anyway to make a game of it – but it typified a night in which the Dees had this game by the throat, and then kicked it away.

The Lions had never before won a game in Victoria while trailing at half time by 20 points or more. Until tonight. They’ll be underdogs again against the Cats – deservedly so – but their best is so damaging that with a bit of wastefulness from the opposition, they’ll be in with a shot.

From absolutely nothing, Brisbane, the finals chokers, the team with no chance, the team that was one score review from oblivion last week, are into the last four.

September, huh?

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