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Only four teams remain in the race for this year’s AFL premiership, with the Geelong Cats and Collingwood to carry the hopes of the state of Victoria into this weekend’s preliminary finals.
First off, the Cats will start favourites in their home preliminary final against the Brisbane Lions, who will go into the final four on a high after taking down reigning premiers Melbourne in their semi-final last Friday night.
The other preliminary final sees Collingwood fly north to Sydney to face the Swans, who are coming off a week’s break after delivering the first of the two fatal blows to the Dees’ premiership defence in week one of the finals.
Wins by the Cats and Pies will see the AFL flag guaranteed to remain in Victoria for a fourth straight year, and would also be the first all-Victorian decider at the MCG since their clash in the 2011 decider, won on that occasion by the Cats by 38 points.
Otherwise, if the Swans and Lions salute, it will be the first all non-Victorian decider since 2006, and would potentially be marketed as a “State of Origin”-style decider.
It is also possible that the Lions and Pies could face off in the decider next weekend, which would come nearly two decades after the northerners won two of their three flags at their expense in 2002 and 2003 (their 2001 flag coming against Essendon).
Here is your preview to the two preliminary finals this weekend.
Friday, September 16, 7:50pm
Melbourne Cricket Ground
This season: Geelong Cats 11.14 (80) defeated Brisbane Lions 11.4 (70) at GMHBA Stadium in round four.
Last meeting in a final: Geelong Cats 11.16 (82) defeated Brisbane Lions 6.6 (42) at the Gabba, first preliminary final, 2020.
This will be the third meeting between the Geelong Cats and Brisbane Lions in a final, and the third time that it has happened whereby a Grand Final berth is on the line.
If the Lions had their way, the 2004 preliminary final would’ve been played at the Gabba, but because of the controversial MCG finals contract which was since abolished, it was played at the MCG, the venue for this Friday night’s prelim, instead.
The reason? Because the contract at the time stipulated that at least one final must be played at the ‘G every week, and as Port Adelaide finished higher it was entitled to keep its home preliminary final, meaning the Lions’ match was the one to be switched from the Gabba.
While it didn’t seem to matter at first as the Lions won, the rather unnecessary travel was a major factor in them subsequently losing the Grand Final to the Power and being denied a fourth consecutive flag, which would’ve seen them equal with the Pies’ 1927-30 feat.
To the match at hand, and Chris Fagan’s side are on the road once again as they seek to keep their flag hopes alive, first edging out Richmond in a thrilling elimination final at home before coming from behind to end the Dees’ premiership defence in the semi-final.
Their next task doesn’t come any tougher than this – facing minor premiers the Geelong Cats, who are fresh off a week’s break after its qualifying final win over the Pies, in which they started slowly but did enough to win by less than a kick.
The last time the Cats and Lions faced off in a final was the 2020 preliminary final, in which Chris Scott’s men won by 40 points and denied the Lions the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to play for a premiership right in their home backyard.
While the Lions would’ve fancied their chances in a Gabba Grand Final (which was made possible due to Victoria being in lockdown at the time), it was the Cats’ experience that won out, though they would ultimately lose to Richmond in the decider.
Two years on, the Lions would’ve learnt a lesson or two from that defeat, as well as their straight-sets exits from both 2019 and 2021, and will back themselves in against a side who will be desperate to land a flag while Selwood, Dangerfield and Hawkins are still playing.
The stakes are even higher for Jeremy Cameron, whose last shot at a flag in 2019 ended when his Giants were humiliated by the Tigers in the ’19 decider, in which he kicked the first goal of the match.
While the Lions will have nothing to lose, the Cats’ experience should prove the difference again, as it did in 2020.
For the winner: A berth in the Grand Final; for the Cats certain favouritism for the flag and for the Lions the opportunity to win a flag for the first time since its 2001-03 premiership hat-trick.
For the loser: Season over and a long summer to ponder what could’ve been.
Prediction: Geelong Cats by 18 points.
Tom Hawkins of the Cats competes with Jeremy Finlayson of the Power. (Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Saturday, September 17, 4:45pm
Sydney Cricket Ground
This season: Sydney Swans 11.11 (77) defeated Collingwood 7.8 (50) at the SCG in round 22.
Last meeting in a final: Sydney Swans 13.18 (96) defeated Collingwood 10.10 (70) at Accor Stadium, second preliminary final, 2012.
Cast your mind all the way back to September 21, 1996 – it was the day the AFL had well and truly arrived in Sydney.
It was on that night that Tony Lockett first etched his name into Sydney Swans history, booting the match-winning point after the final siren against Essendon to send the side into its first Grand Final since 1945, and first since relocating to Sydney in 1982.
That was the last time an AFL preliminary final was played at the Sydney Cricket Ground, with three subsequent prelims hosted by the club played at the larger Accor Stadium (2003, 2012 and 2014).
26 years on, the present day Swans get the chance to qualify for its seventh Grand Final since that famous match, but first since 2016, when they play host to the Pies in Saturday’s other Grand Final qualifier.
John Longmire’s side earned plenty of praise for the way they suffocated Melbourne out of the game in the qualifying final at the MCG, going blow for blow against a side they had already defeated earlier in the season, in round 12.
Even when they fell as much as three goals down, they did not lose the belief that they could take down a heavyweight club, and they ultimately kept the Dees goalless in the final quarter to become the first team to qualify directly for the final four.
Not only do they now go into Saturday’s clash against the Pies well and truly refreshed, they also go in with the belief that they can again land a killer blow on the Pies, having put an end to their eleven-match winning streak at the SCG a month ago.
While that loss cost Craig McRae’s side a top two finish, they still did enough to finish in the top four for the third time in five years, and after losing to the Cats in the qualifying final made good use of their second chance, defeating Fremantle by 20 points in their semi-final.
It has been a meteoric rise for the Pies, who had finished second-last in 2021 and whose long-serving coach Nathan Buckley walked away mid-season, knowing he could no longer deliver the goods for the club he played for in the 90s and noughties.
This will be the first time in a decade that the Swans and Pies face each other in a final; the last time was in the 2012 preliminary final at Accor Stadium in which the Swans won by 26 points to break an eleven-match losing streak against the Pies dating back to 2005, in Jude Bolton’s 300th game.
In a case of reverse psychology, it was the Pies that broke the Swans’ nine-game winning streak with an eight-point win in round 20, and here they’ll be attempting to stop the Swans’ current winning streak which stands at eight.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
While the Pies would fancy their chances of completing what would be the AFL’s biggest season turnaround since they themselves went from wooden spooners in 1976 to Grand Finalists the following season, the Swans’ impressive form and their week off should see them back on the big stage.
For the Swans there is the lure of potentially winning a flag in Buddy’s final AFL match, with speculation growing that he could retire at the end of the season, and if they do salute it would be the perfect Hollywood ending to one of the game’s greatest players.
For the winner: For the Swans the opportunity to win a flag in, potentially, Buddy’s final AFL game, or for the Pies another shot to land a record-equalling 16th flag which would put them equal with Carlton and Essendon on as many flags.
For the loser: Season over and a long summer to ponder what could’ve been.
Prediction: Sydney Swans by eight points.
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