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It’s here! It’s finally here!
191 days since the season began with Melbourne taking on the Western Bulldogs on a Wednesday night (remember that?) we’ve reached the crescendo: Geelong versus Sydney, in the 2022 grand final, with every single marble at stake.
It’s probably fair to say that footy would be the last thing on many fans’ minds given the story and allegations that have surfaced this week – but hopefully after having our faith in the game collectively shaken by the reports out of Hawthorn, the big day at the MCG can offer some respite, and a chance to take our minds off the future ahead for a few hours and enjoy a ripping game of footy.
This will, naturally, be the last expert tips column for the season. It’s fair to say none of our tipping numbers were overly high, but in this craziest of seasons I think that can be forgiven.
We’ve all made tips we’d later regret – I can’t count how many times I fell into the ‘West Coast should be decent at home’ trap – but it’s just no fun picking the favourites every single week. And hey, maybe next year lady luck will smile upon one or two of us.
So for now, thanks for the memories (even if they weren’t so good).
Result: Geelong by 21 points
Norm Smith Medal: Tom Stewart
First goal: Errol Gulden
Biggest moment: Lance Franklin marks on the lead in the first quarter, lines them up… and misses everything, setting the done for a frustrating day for the champion.
There’s always a sense of sadness when an AFL season comes to its end. For me, having literally somehow conned my way into getting paid to watch pretty much every single minute of it, it’s even more melancholy than normal.
But within that all is pure, unadulterated excitement. Not only are we going to see the year’s two best teams, Geelong and Sydney, battling it out on the big day – my apologies to Demons fans – but we’re back at the MCG for the first time since 2019, and with all the festival, spectacle and prestige that accompanies it.
As a Victorian who’s spent the last two grand finals in hard lockdown, it’s fantastic to have the game back. Many thanks to Brisbane and Perth for carrying the candle the last two years; but we’ll take it from here, thanks!
When it comes to the game, it’s a fantastic contrast of styles. The Cats, while far more lethal in transition and quicker in their ball movement than ever before, are still an eminently sensible team. No side sets up better behind the ball, no side makes it easier for young players to step in and fulfil their roles with aplomb – Sam De Koning, for one – and no side has a one-two forward line punch quite as lethal as Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins.
The Swans, meanwhile, are an updated model from the run-and-gun, tearaway team that stormed back into finals in 2021. This time, they’re smarter with ball in hand, more brutal in close – Callum Mills and James Rowbottom have both become mega-contested beasts alongside Luke Parker – and in Tom and Paddy McCartin, have two giants in defensive 50 that can both hold a dangerous forward and influence the game through aggressive intercept marking as well.
The stories also make it great: McCartin returning from footy’s junkyard after years of concussion battles to not just be surviving, but thriving, in a side that has made it to the last Saturday in September; Tyson Stengle, whose off-field indiscretions appeared to have overcome his undoubted talent, turning a Cats lifeline into becoming their livewire in attack.
I think I speak for all neutrals when I say what we covet most is a great grand final. We’ve not seen a lot of those of late: 2021 was memorable for the final-term margin blowout, 2020 more about the brilliance of Dustin Martin than the quality of a still above-average grand finals; and the less said about 2019 the better.
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My view? This won’t head into the pantheon of the greats – as tantalising as the clash is, grand finals that seem great on paper can often disappoint. I don’t think this one will do that, either – my head is saying a steady Geelong win where they never rip the game apart but also never truly look like losing after taking early control.
Make no mistake – the Swans are in this one up to their eyeballs. Especially now that I’ve tipped against them. That’s kind of been my year.
Result: Sydney by 9 points
Norm Smith Medal: Chad Warner
First goal: Isaac Smith
Biggest moment: Paddy McCartin takes a big intercept mark in the last quarter that will inevitably attract comparison to Leo Barry, and cap off a stunning return season none of us saw coming.
Here are some facts. Both the Swans and the Cats were the most efficient offensive teams in the league in terms of turning possession into scores – the former averaged 13.77 disposals per scoring shot, while the latter sat at 13.83.
Also true is the fact that they’re the two best teams at restricting ball movement out of defence – they’re ranked first and second respectively for fewest metres gained by an opposition team.
They achieve this in very different ways too. Geelong has become an offensive juggernaut, and have placed more value in scoring out of their defence. Tom Stewart averaged career highs for score involvements, while the likes of Mitch Duncan, Zach Tuohy and Isaac Smith have played out of the back half and streamed forward. As a result, they overwhelm the opposition by lining up defensively across the centre line, squeezing them until they turn it over.
Sydney, on the other hand, are the second-best tackling team in the league and provide relentless pressure both on the ball and in their positioning out of possession. They’re happy to play a little deeper defensively because they know when they win the ball back, they can control the play until corridor opportunities open up.
So, in a game between the two most efficient offensive line-ups in the AFL, it looks like it’s defence that will dictate just how this contest will go. Personally, I’m expecting a low-scoring Grand Final that remains an arm wrestle up until the final siren.
If we look back at the qualifying final between the Cats and Collingwood, it was the latter’s tackling pressure that really impacted the way the minor premier was able to influence the game. Geelong finished below their season averages for disposals and inside 50s, committed an extraordinary 81 turnovers, and were forced into playing a much more contested game. They usually operate with a contested possession rate of 37.04% but in this game, it was 46%. They barely snuck over the line and couldn’t handle the pressure.
It’s what really gives Sydney a realistic shot, as a more accomplished tactical version of what the Magpies are. If their tackling is maintained at the level it has all season, the Cats will find it difficult to spread as easily as they usually do. This restricts the ability of their midfielders to hit up targets inside 50 and really brings the Swans’ defensive unit into play at ground level.
If Geelong is able to gain control early of the ball and deprive Sydney of the opportunity to tackle by taking uncontested marks, then the travelling team might find it difficult to match the outside firepower of the Cats.
This is truly looking like a Grand Final that will be remembered for a long time: and in a game of inches, it will come down to which team’s defence is more effective at limiting the efficiency of the opposition’s offence.
Tackling may well beat structure this time around.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Result: Sydney by 8 points
Norm Smith Medal: Tom Papley
First goal: Tyson Stengle
Biggest moment: Patrick Dangerfield to brutally knock someone out and suffer no penalty for it. Again.
Fittingly, the two most in-form teams by far, with a combined winning streak of 23, are going to square off in the grand final.
This year, it feels like two classic combatants. The old in Geelong, and the new in Sydney. The Cats have an average age of 28, with a combined games tally among their players reaching almost 4000. The Swans’ average age is 25, with a games tally just over 2500.
Sydney has nine players aged 22 or under. Geelong only has two. Make no mistake, this is the fearlessness of youth versus the experienced hand that has seen it all before.
The Cats and Swans have only met once in the last 45 weeks of AFL football. Sydney prevailed at the SCG by 30 points, but were remarkably accurate; Geelong had five more scoring shots and also conceded a rare nine goals from the corridor. Both sides could walk away thinking they had the best of it.
Geelong were uber-impressive in their preliminary final win, while Sydney were in control for the most part before getting a fright late. Which preparation is better for a grand final?
So often, the scrappy prelim winner hoists the trophy over the one that put in a more commanding penultimate game. Think of Richmond over Port by six points in 2020 or the Bulldogs by six points over GWS in 2016. Hawthorn won a prelim by three points against Port in 2014 and by five points over Geelong in 2013, winning the flag both times.
Looking at the teams, it’s hard to identify a costly weak link in the Geelong outfit, whereas it’s much easier to find a few holes in the Sydney team. But the Swans can bring a level of pressure the Cats can’t – we know that has been the latter’s undoing in finals under Chris Scott, albeit they survived against Collingwood.
I’m always partial to an upset on grand final day, and there have been enough of them in the last 20 years to justify it.
I’ll concede Geelong deserve favouritism, and are the mathematically correct options. But it’s Sydney for me.
Result: Sydney by 9 points (this isn’t a typo – Liam and Dem both tipped the same result AND margin without knowing what the other one had picked. Spooky)
Norm Smith Medal: Isaac Heeney
First goal: Tyson Stengle
Biggest moment: Lance Franklin stands up yet again with a game on the line to steer the Swans to glory in the last quarter.
It’s somewhat amazing to know this is the first time these two clubs – among the most consistently incredible albeit slightly underperforming of the past decade or so – have faced off in a grand final.
And we’re in for a treat.
The Cats, having won fourteen in a row, possess an almost irresistible appetite for finals footy, yet often fail to deliver when it matters.
That changed over the last month: the sensationally stable club fended off Collingwood, before smashing Brisbane. “Doesn’t win when it matters” became a phrase baring no legitimacy.
And it’s only fitting: their midfield defies description, led by the courageous Joel Selwood – playing in his league record FORTIETH final – and Patrick Dangerfield; their defence is the league’s best as well, and they’re clearly offensively powerful, featuring two of the year’s top three goalkickers in just the home-and-away rounds in Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron. Remove that criteria, and they’re one and two outright.
But while the Cats have an admirable stability and are evidently the favourites, I’m backing the Swans on pure belief.
Lance Franklin clearly buys into it – he’ll be playing next year, but is out to check that last box off his CV and win a flag with the side who headhunted him in late 2013 specifically for that purpose.
It’s unbelievably hard to surpass the theatrics of Buddy’s 1000th goal this year – coincidentally against Geelong back in Round 2 – but I’m betting the mercurial forward will save some of his best for Saturday.
Cometh the man, cometh the moment seems an adage almost built for Franklin, and I can’t go past tipping the man to stand up when it matters most.
The enthusiasm of their young brigade (think Chad Warner, Tom Papley, Callum Mills, Isaac Heeney et.al) have an almost showbiz magic about them.
The Swans don’t have a midfield of individual powerhouses the likes of Dangerfield or Selwood (both of whom are likely to be sensational even within my predicted loss for their club), but Heeney’s often understated work through the guts has been intertwined with the Swans’ success in recent years. He’s quite handy up forward as well.
If Collingwood made every finish a movie in 2022, and Geelong were constantly producing the results, the Swans are the quiet and almost underrated heroes of footy.
On a week where the AFL has been rocked by one of its darkest scandals, and there’s an abundance of disillusionment with the league and the game, there’s no doubt Saturday’s grand final will produce the best of the sport.
It’s perhaps fitting that two of the best teams, not just of this year but of decades past, are lining up on the MCG on Saturday afternoon.
And it’s only fitting that Sydney – with their youthful exuberance – could produce the magic we all crave.
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