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ROCHDALE – It’s time for the messing around to stop. Australia have been on easy street for almost a month in the Rugby League World Cup, with none of their opponents able to lay a glove on them, despite continual messing with their own squad. Such is the talent disparity.
With a semi-final against the Kiwis this Friday night (Saturday morning AEDT) at Elland Road in Leeds, things should be about to get serious. New Zealand underwhelmed in their previous game, squeaking by a resilient Fiji, but are likely to arc up against their old foe.
We’ve spoken extensively about the halfback role, and the relative lack of size in the middle, well-trodden paths for analysing this Kangaroos side. Now, the squad seems relatively settled and more readily available for a deep dive.
Both sides have named their squads, and though Australia’s men continue to mess around with the order of theirs, we can work out generally who is going to go where. Let’s break it down.
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Normally, I’d this is where I’d tell you that rugby league is a systems sport and good collectives beat good individuals, but come on: Joey Manu v James Tedesco is too good a personal battle to ignore off the top.
The pair have played alongside each other over 100 times in the colours of the Sydney Roosters but against each other just twice, both times in trans-Tasman clashes, and on both occasions, Manu was at centre. Now, they face off in their best positions and as undisputed stars of their teams.
Tedesco has underwhelmed, for my money, at this World Cup, but this would be the perfect time to deliver. I’ll caveat that with the recognition that he’s played a lot of reduced minutes, which isn’t his fault, and that he has played against weaker opposition, which, again, it’s nothing to do with him.
But if you asked who has had the better run so far, it’s undoubtedly Manu. Manu single-handedly rescued the Kiwis against Lebanon and sparked the comeback last week against Fiji and has consistently been the source of early set metres and late set inspiration.
The pair approach things in a similar manner: neither favours one side and both thrive off second phase, allowing them to do their best work centrally in broken play situations.
Manu averages a ridiculously high amount of touches per game, indicating a great level of involvement in play, though that has not always been to his advantage with Tedesco more able to pick moments.
Tedesco can often thrive when his side are less dominant physically, as might be the case on Friday if the Kiwis’ forward pack comes to play, and his ability to have an influence in unfavourable situations might be vital, especially given Nathan Cleary’s periodic problems with wresting game momentum.
The sample size of times where the Panthers halfback has been required to play off the back of a pack that wasn’t on top is small, because Penrith so often win the yardage battle, but it has been a major criticism in Origin games and might come to the fore on Friday night. If it does, then he’ll need Tedesco there with him to turn the game in the Kangaroos’ favour.
OK, so the collective. Rep footy is generally less collectivist because you don’t get time to put a team together, and it appears that Australia haven’t really bothered to create that kind of team as a result.
They’ve opted to give everyone a game in the groups rather than strengthening combinations, then picked a side that foreground micro-combinations from club level above a wider team cohesion.
New Zealand haven’t been able to do the same due to injuries to key spine members, but have attempted to build a settled side where possible around that, with a clear first choice pack and spine.
There’s two ways that this can go. If you’re Michael Maguire, your hope is that the side you have picked thus far is now sufficiently gelled and ready to step up a level to match the opposition.
It will help that their plan, heavily based on a power game through the middle and exception spine players in Jahome Hughes, Dylan Brown and Joey Manu off the back, is the sort that is easier to put together in a short time than the middle service style that Australia will invariably end up with given the presence of Isaah Yeo and Cam Murray in the side.
If you’re Mal Meninga, you might not worry too much about plans. The talent advantage in international rugby league is basically always with the Kangaroos and they don’t really have to have much of a strategy that goes beyond getting their incredibly good players to play to their abilities.
As mentioned, the mere presence of Yeo and Cleary means that they will be inclined to play through that combination, with a more freestyling fashion elsewhere.
It is usually enough, though the last time the Roos lost, in 2019, that plan was made to look a little naive by a committed, organised Tongan pack that ran right over them. It works until it doesn’t, and, of course, it usually works.
The Kangaroos’ strategy to date has manifested itself in a noticeable imbalance in attack, with the left favoured heavily over the right.
It’s easy to see why, given the talent available on that edge: Cameron Munster, the world’s best five eighth, into Latrell Mitchell, one of the world’s best centres, and then Josh Addo-Carr, potentially the best player at the tournament so far.
It helps that Latrell is also the underpinning of the best left edge in the NRL at South Sydney, and Munster also likes to lurk out there for Melbourne, so just chuck those two the ball as often as possible.
Conversely, on the other side, there is Val Holmes – now a winger again – and Jack Wighton, shoehorned into the side and not a proper centre. Often those two have been used as foils to open up a long side that can create space on the left.
It will be interesting to see how this breaks down against the Kiwis. The right edge of New Zealand, with Peta Hiku up against Mitchell and Jordan Rapana taking on the Foxx, was exposed last week for Fiji’s first try but would generally be considered defensively strong, while the other edge – Charze Nicoll-Klokstad and Ronaldo Mulitalo – is solid too.
The outside backs for the Kiwis are a clear disadvantage – not one would make the Australia squad, let alone team – and, if Australia can generate go-forward, they’d do well to attack early and often.