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All year selection – and injury – has dominated discussion. But it will be nothing compared to the 10 months ahead, as Dave Rennie considers how to narrow down the 51 players he used throughout 2022 for a 33-man World Cup squad.
As he pointed out following the Wallabies’ remarkable come-from-behind victory over Wales, Rennie was missing approximately 25 players who would have come into consideration for the Test.
Despite the extraordinary numbers unavailable for duty, the Wallabies had strong impact off the bench, with Lachlan Lonergan, Ned Hanigan, Pete Samu and Tate McDermott in particular starring to help overturn a 21-ponit deficit to shock Wales, winning 39-34.
“It just highlights the depth we’re creating,” Rennie said following the victory at the Principality Stadium.
“We left a dozen or so guys at home, we’ve had 11 go home, and to have guys come off the bench and have a big say in the Test match highlights that we are creating depth.”
Looking ahead to next year’s World Cup, we’ve brought out the crystal ball.
That includes another tweak to the overseas selection policy, which could well be expanded for the World Cup year.
As it stands, Rennie can only pick three players in his 33-man squad. That number, however, could well double for 2023. For now, five overseas players have been selected in our predicted squad, yet injuries could see that number increase, with Suntory-based back-rower Sean McMahon one player who should still be in the reckoning, particularly if anything was to occur to Michael Hooper.
Ditto if Quade Cooper goes down or does not recover as hoped, Bernard Foley – who has been left out on the presumption Cooper is fit – could potentially start.
Overall, there has been a preference for experience. While Rugby Australia does want to favour youth, especially given they are hosting the tournament in 2027, historically World Cups are won on experience with a touch of raw youth and flair around the edges.
Dave Rennie has some big selection headaches to make to squeeze his World Cup squad down to 33 after using 51 players in 2022. (Photo: Phil Walter/Getty Images)
The Waratahs also have a high representation, particularly when compared to the Reds, and that is in large part because NSW shape like having a real crack in 2023. Often World Cup squads are built around the success of the best performing franchise/club in respective countries.
Without further ado, this is our 33-man World Cup squad with a reserve listed in case of injury.
Note: all names are in alphabetical order.
Hookers (3): Folau Fainga’a, Lachlan Lonergan, Dave Porecki
Reserve: Tolu Latu
The No.2 jersey remains problematic. There are options, but is there a world-class option?
Porecki, should injury (concussion) not prove problematic in 2023, is a certainty. Fainga’a is a strong contender despite the Force-bound hooker struggling at times with his throw. Lonergan has chosen by the slimmest of margins over Latu because, as good as his World Cup campaign was in Japan, Latu could let the side down on or off the field.
Discipline is the key for the Wallabies in 2023 and unless there’s an injury to either Fainga’a or Porecki, Latu remains a reserve.
Props (6): Allan Alaalatoa, Angus Bell, Pone Fa’amausili, Tom Robertson, James Slipper, Taniela Tupou
Reserve: Scott Sio
Four of the six – Alaalatoa, Bell, Slipper and Tupou – pick themselves, with the two remaining spots to come down to Super Rugby form.
Robertson and Fa’amausili are just ahead of Matt Gibbon and Sam Talakai, who both appeared on the Spring Tour. Should either Slipper or Bell go down, Rennie would be tempted to call in Sio, the two-time World Cup rep, who will be with Exeter.
The Wallabies will be sweating on Tupou as well, with the giant prop suffering an Achilles injury. His injury absence will be a devastating blow for the Reds.
Second-rowers (4): Rory Arnold, Nick Frost, Izack Rodda, Will Skelton
Reserve: Darcy Swain
Sean McMahon represented the Wallabies during the 2021 Rugby Championship but could be a bolter for next year’s World Cup. (Photo: David Rogers/Getty Images)
The inclusions of Arnold and Skelton rest on the overseas selection policy being expanded, but given the brutal nature of rugby, where forward packs and winning the collision area are essential for a team’s success, both giants have been included.
Australia have not seen the best of Skelton yet, but if the European-based star joined the Wallabies for part of The Rugby Championship, he would be humming by the time he arrives back in France.
At least one of the overseas stars would start, with Frost emerging as someone to complement Skelton while the 2019 World Cup combination of Arnold and Rodda will also be a consideration. Rodda missed the entire Test campaign, but he should be fresh to mount a strong push in 2023. He would also add plenty around the attacking ruck.
As for Swain, the Brumbies’ lock would be a notable omission, but his ill-discipline has seen him fall behind Frost, who didn’t put a step wrong during his breakout season. Matt Philip’s chances cliff-dived following his pre-Spring Tour injury while the selections of Skelton and Arnold see Cadeyrn Neville miss selection.
Back-rowers (6): Jed Holloway, Michael Hooper, Fraser McReight, Pete Samu, Rob Valetini, Harry Wilson
Reserves: Ned Hanigan (No.6), Sean McMahon (No.7/8)
Perhaps the hardest group of players to choose from – and there will be some devastated players, who could all feature for the home World Cup in 2027.
The bolter of the group is McMahon. If anything happens to Valetini or Wilson, McMahon would be the first person I turn to for his overall explosiveness and versatility. Lachlan Swinton is another bolter who could come back into the picture.
Valetini, Hooper and Samu pick themselves. Rob Leota’s injury, which has him racing the clock to be fit for The Rugby Championship, has seen Holloway picked ahead of him as blindside flanker who, at a pinch, could shift to the second-row if required. Hanigan would be on standby for Holloway.
Halfbacks (3): Jake Gordon, Tate McDermott, Nic White
Reserve: Ryan Lonergan
The easiest trio to select. The fact there is no other back in the squad who could cover the halfback position sees all three go to France. Who plays remains the question.
At this point, Tate McDermott is in the 23.
Fly-halves (2): Quade Cooper, Noah Lolesio
Reserve: Bernard Foley
A conundrum for Rennie. It’s Cooper then daylight as it stands, but if anything was to occur to Cooper, Foley would be called up, should he not be selected in the initial squad. It would be a terrible look for both overseas-based playmakers to be selected, and on that basis Foley missed out.
Lolesio has been selected just ahead of Ben Donaldson, whose stocks could well go up should the Waratahs, as expected, have a strong season. The fact the Brumbies playmaker is approaching 20 Tests was a consideration, too.
While Kurtley Beale would not be considered as a starting No.10 option, his utility value could be called upon off the bench.
Centres (3): Samu Kerevi, Len Ikitau, Hunter Paisami
Reserves: Lalakai Foketi (12), Izaia Perese (13)
Kerevi and Ikitau shape as the obvious midfield pairing, but Paisami could well feature on the bench or a replacement for either player.
Foketi would be awfully unfortunate to miss selection but would be on standby for either Kerevi or Paisami. Perese’s season was rocked by an injury at the back-end of Super Rugby, which came after another injury in 2021, but would be a strong consideration for either Ikitau or Paisami.
Mark Nawaqanitawase had a breakout season for the Wallabies to explode into the World Cup reckoning. (Photo: David Davies/PA Images via Getty Images)
Outside backs (6): Kurtley Beale, Andrew Kellaway, Marika Koroibete, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Jordan Petaia, Tom Wright
Reserves: Reece Hodge, Jock Campbell (fullback), Suliasi Vunivalu (wing)
Just like the back-row, the back three will be debated all year.
Some big calls are coming. The biggest is whether Rennie selects an out-and-out fullback. At this stage, he might not. Tom Banks would have been a shoo-in had he remained in Super Rugby, but he has not, and injury scuppered his ambitions of one final push on the Spring Tour.
Campbell showed promise and will be looked at closer than most in 2023. But has he done enough to start? The jury is still out.
The locks are Koroibete, Kellaway and Wright. Petaia is another whose stocks rose throughout the end of year Tests while Nawaqanitawase was the breakout star of the tour. Of those five, Wright and Kellaway shape as the two battling it out to wear the No.15 jersey and both should start in the role for their respective franchises.
As for the final position on tour, Beale shaves Hodge for his match-winning ability. Both can cover multiple positions, but where Hodge was a reluctant addition off the bench at stages in 2022, Beale is the type of player one injects to ignite something. He could yet start at fullback, but he shapes as the perfect player to wear the No.22 jersey.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.