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Oof.
It worked well last year – but it turns out tipping against the odds in Round 1 is a very, very dangerous business.
Suddenly I’m four off the pace, thanks to a disastrous 2 – yep, TWO. If you thought you had a bad tipping week, then at least you have some consolation now that things can indeed get worse.
Still, it’s a long season – longer than ever, in fact, with 24 rounds – and there’s no sense throwing the baby out with the bathwater and going for broke at Round 2. Onward we march!
Geelong, Melbourne, Collingwood, Richmond, Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, Sydney, Essendon, West Coast
Well, at least things can’t go any worse than they did last week. Still, I had a great start to last year and then things fell apart spectacularly, so here’s hoping the opposite is true of 2023.
To start with, every instinct of mine is screaming that Carlton are a red-hot chance to leave Geelong reeling at 0-2 on Thursday night. Their forward line is primed to pounce on an injury-plagued Cats backline, while their midfield, even without George Hewett, is more than a match for the premiers’ on paper.
Really, though, Geelong have been grinding out wins like this for a decade plus, and the Blues… just haven’t. I can’t bring myself to tip them here.
Friday night is a more comfortable pick – Melbourne were clinical against the Bulldogs last week, and now they get Steven May, Jack Viney, Christian Salem and Jack Viney all back with only Kysaiah Pickett going the other way. They’re my premiership fancy, and I’d even back them to beat a Lions outfit firing on all cylinders, let alone the fragile mob who got ripped apart by Port Adelaide.
To Saturday’s games, and Collingwood-Port Adelaide should be an absolute ripper. I had both teams missing the eight in pre-season – something I’m already sorely regretting – and in the ultimate coin-flip, home ground advantage gives the Magpies my tip (you’re welcome, Port). But the same probably won’t be enough for Adelaide as they host the Tigers; a big part of their upset win over Richmond last year was midfield dominance, and the Tigers have improved their engine room quite considerably in the last 12 months.
Fremantle surely can’t lose to North Melbourne at home – but they’ll need to find a way to score more reliably than against the Saints for this to be anything other than a nervy match. Speaking of the Saints, they’re a massive chance to knock over the inconsistent Bulldogs on Saturday night.
I’m sticking with the Dogs out of nothing more than blind loyalty, but distinctly remember the eight-year period they went between 2008 and 2016, under three different coaches, where not a single win was had against a Ross Lyon-coached team from 10 starts.
Sunday’s games get more difficult as the day goes on: Sydney will make mincemeat of Hawthorn at the SCG, while Essendon were just too darn exciting against those Hawks to not have them as favourites to do the same to a bitterly disappointing Gold Coast. The Suns couldn’t stop the Swans’ outside runners from cutting them apart, making the Dons a bad opponent to follow up with.
Lastly, this is a big week for West Coast. There’s nothing to gain and everything to lose out of their clash with GWS: going down to a Josh Kelly, Lachie Whitfield-less Giants at home after losing to North Melbourne last week would make things very tense for Adam Simpson.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
Carlton, Melbourne, Collingwood, Richmond, Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, Sydney, Gold Coast, West Coast
In a world that operates on constant change, it’s nice to have the familiarity of bang-average tipping to ground us.
Picking who wins is becoming less throwing darts at a dartboard and more trying to be an archer and knock the apple off of someone’s head – so far, there’s an arrow stuck in a quad and one still yet to come down from the skies.
Alas, we’re met with more even contests this round; perhaps it’ll be a recurring theme in 2023, given the unpredictability of performances and the sheer number of contenders. Let’s be clinical with this week’s tips – maybe that’ll work.
Carlton went into their shell when the game was on the line against Richmond, while Geelong ran out of legs to lose to Collingwood and have their defensive structure in a shambles at the moment. The Blues need to be more aggressive. If they can do that, they win.
The Lions were horrible, but far be it for me to suggest their trade period made no improvement to their team at all – just let the loss to Port be played on loop. They’ll be much improved against Melbourne and it’ll be a tight one. Still, I’ve tipped the Demons to be undefeated for the first half of the season, so we’ll stay on that line.
You couldn’t have had two teams play more at their peak than Collingwood and Port on Saturday. I trust the Magpies more here, though. In the other Saturday afternoon match, Richmond beats Adelaide but not without some scares. The heat of the GWS game could have a lasting effect on the Crows.
Expect St Kilda to grind it out during the early stages of the season before maybe dropping off later on. The Bulldogs have a point to prove, though, and should win here.
I wasn’t at all concerned about the Dockers despite the shocking loss to the Saints. They got the ball inside 50 plenty and will learn to handle teams flooding back. A statement to be made here against North.
On Sunday, the Swans will beat the Hawks and I think the Suns should eclipse the Bombers. But West Coast and GWS is an extremely interesting proposition – an Eagles upset at home, anyone?
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
Geelong, Melbourne, Collingwood, Richmond, Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, Sydney, Gold Coast, West Coast
Not a great start for me last week with just 4 on the board. Biting me on the backside were the few games I went against the grain with, so I’m mostly sticking with the favourites this time around.
Geelong seem ripe for the picking against Carlton, with their backline decimated by injury and the Blues boasting Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow. But you can never go wrong backing the Cats to find a way, plus George Hewett is a sizeable out for the Blues.
Melbourne should handle Brisbane comfortably, just as they did in their last trip to the Gabba in late 2022. Steven May, Bayley Fritsch and Jack Viney will most likely all be back, but even if they weren’t, the Dees were oh so impressive last week and the Lions looked extremely shaky.
Home ground advantage has me sticking with Collingwood over Port Adelaide in the match of the round, but no such luck for Adelaide – I’ll back Richmond, who really should have beaten Carlton if not for some wasteful kicking for goal, to be too strong around the ball.
Two of last week’s biggest disappointments, the Bulldogs and Fremantle, should bounce back; the Dogs because they face a Saints side which surely doesn’t have the midfield power to stand up to theirs, Freo because they’re not serious if they’re not putting away North with ease on their own soil.
On to Sunday, which starts easy – Sydney will beat Hawthorn and probably put a cricket score on – but the remaining two games could go either way. I’ve backed Gold Coast to rebound from last week’s loss and show off their contested ball strength against the Bombers, whose big win last week has a Hawks-shaped asterisk next to it.
Finishing off the round, West Coast will officially be a wooden spoon contender if they can’t knock over a GWS outfit missing Josh Kelly and Lachie Whitfield on home turf. I don’t think they’re that bad just yet.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Geelong, Melbourne, Collingwood, Richmond, St Kilda, Fremantle, Sydney, Essendon, West Coast.
Wow. That was a hell of an opening round – some incredibly exciting footy, lots of expectations collapsing, some teams punching above their weight. We can’t necessarily read into it, but post-Round 1 is when we all immediately jump to conclusions, right?
We begin with two teams who would both be dissatisfied with their opening clashes; the Blues, having apparently not learnt the art of caressing a lead in late stages, start as underdogs against the Cats.
Geelong looked very nice at stages last week but were overwhelmed by a ferocious Magies effort. No Tom Stewart hurts, but I’m confident the Cats will earn the win here – as obviously talented as they are, Carlton’s main kryptonite is their untrustworthiness.
The Demons have among the most drastic personnel changes this week: they lose Kysaiah Pickett, but gain Steven May, Jack Viney and Bayley Fritsch, plus possibly Christian Salem as well. Melbourne didn’t really have to dig deep against a lacklustre Bulldogs last week, but will tomorrow night – the bruised Brisbane will be a lot better at the Gabba than they were against Port Adelaide.
That said, a Dees win is more appealing to tip – Brisbane just looked so bad for parts of last week, and the Dees will be motivated by revenge (see: 2022 semi final).
The team who thoroughly defeated the Lions last week – Port – are up against possibly Round 1’s strongest side, Collingwood. Port belied my expectations with a strong performance to begin the season; and they needed to, as their opening five rounds are one of the league’s most difficult.
I genuinely feel there’s upset potential here, but I’m comfortable backing the Pies. It means annoying friends on either side of the Adelaide footy supporting spectrum, as I’m against both SA teams this weekend, with Richmond likely to earn their first win of the season against the Crows.
Saturday night’s games are a little lacklustre. The Bulldogs looked awful last week, and face the surprisingly strong St Kilda. The Dogs are the rightful favourites in this clash, but, to hell with it, I’m going to go against any
semblance of sense and back the Sainters.
Freo were disappointing in their first round clash against the aforementioned Saints, but being back at home, with (hopefully) a number of personnel changes, should be able to hold off North Melbourne. That’s not to say North won’t put up a challenge – they absolutely will.
Sunday’s most interesting game, for me, is Essendon’s encounter with Gold Coast. The Suns – far from the typical early-season optimism they typically provide – looked poor against Sydney last weekend, barely putting up much of a fight in a game they’d historically have had a great chance at.
And now they come face to face with the Bombers, who put aside off-field turmoil for a classy win last week. As much as the Suns getting a win would be nice, this’ll be an Essendon win. Keep the optimism going a little longer, Dons fans.
As should you, Giants fans: you’ll be beating the Eagles over in Perth; while the easiest tip of the week is Sydney over the Hawks.
Nat Fyfe. (Photo by Will Russell/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
| Round 2 | Tim | Dem | Cam | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR vs GEE | GEE | CAR | GEE | GEE | GEE |
| BL vs MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL |
| COL vs PA | COL | COL | COL | COL | COL |
| ADE vs RCH | RCH | RCH | RCH | RCH | RCH |
| WB vs STK | WB | WB | WB | STK | WB |
| FRE vs NM | FRE | FRE | FRE | FRE | FRE |
| SYD vs HAW | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD |
| ESS vs GCS | ESS | GCS | GCS | ESS | ESS |
| WCE vs GWS | WCE | WCE | WCE | GWS | GWS |
| ROLLING TOTAL | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
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