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A quick disclaimer before we start: I’m just going to go ahead and ignore the last 11 minutes and 55 seconds of Melbourne’s loss to Brisbane on Friday night, and the power outage that preceded it.
I’ll have more to talk about the latter in Six Points, and as for the former, it’s pretty clear that the Lions simply played like they had nothing to gain in the final passage, while the Dees went about things as if they had nothing to lose.
It was simply too ridiculous a finish to gain any logical conclusions from it. Five goals to zip after the outage was the polar opposite to how the rest of the match had gone, and nothing else makes sense other than to say the Dees wanted to win and the Lions wanted to go home. Credit to the Demons for fighting it out and restoring their percentage – and making for some of the funniest sports TV we’ll see all year – but they were well beaten in a way no one who didn’t tune into the match and just sees the final score will ever comprehend.
So, with that out of the way, let’s get into the real stuff: Melbourne have a problem.
How big a problem depends on what scans have to say about Max Gawn’s knee, iced up after being landed across by Jack Viney during the early minutes of their loss to the Lions, no matter how small the margin ended.
Because if it is the dreaded ACL – and Gawn’s body language and the concern in Dees general manager of football Alan Richardson’s voice when discussing the incident with Channel 7 has that well and truly in the frame – then it’s almost season-ruining for the team that were premiership favourites heading into Friday night.
I was at the MCG last Saturday when Gawn and the Dees massacred the Bulldogs and found myself, not for the first time, wondering exactly why they felt the need to pursue Brodie Grundy. Now, having watched him sole ruck for most of the night after Gawn was felled against a reasonable if unimposing duo of Oscar McInerney and Darcy Fort, I’m wondering the same thing.
Last week, it was because Gawn was so colossal, so impactful everywhere he went, and so totally capable of ruling the skies for the Dees on his own that Grundy felt obsolete. Now, it’s because the ultimate second ruckman, the man who was supposed to allow Gawn freedom to do as he pleased around the ground, the second half of the most intimidating ruck duo ever put together in the AFL, could do nothing to stop the Lions blitzing the Dees out of the centre in the same brutal fashion as the 2021 premiers usually dish out.
Brodie Grundy of the Demons handballs. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
You can’t do much about the presence Gawn leaves behind. The Lions, whose desire to look for the corridor at all opportunities and avoid ever kicking down the line to the feared beard backfired occasionally in the first term – most obviously when a Brandon Starcevich goober all but gifted the Dees a Tom McDonald ball – were always going to use the wings with more freedom and dare once the big number 11 went down, especially with Steven May missing as well.
Equally, the Dees were always going to suffer when Tom McDonald needed to step in and ruck: there’s no chance in the world Oscar McInerney is rag-dolling Gawn for a contested mark like he did to McDonald in the first term, before nailing a long goal to begin the Lions’ surge.
There’s even less chance Joe Daniher is able to take the ball out of the ruck on big Maxy to snap through another goal in the middle of said surge.
But the Lions’ domination from stoppages, particularly out of the centre and in their attacking 50, is where it’s supposed to be ultra-handy to have another top-class ruckman on hand to fill in if the worst case scenario strikes. It’s here where Grundy failed spectacularly on Friday night.
Everyone who’s followed footy for the past decade knows what Grundy’s strengths are: he’s dynamic, a smooth mover, a more than respectable field kick for someone of his size, and is strongly built enough to split open packs at stoppages and help get the ball clear.
Essentially, if you were to look for essence of peak Grundy, it would look something like this.
Grundy isn’t quite as mobile as he was back in 2018 and 2019 – put that down to either injuries or complacency after getting the million-dollar contract he wanted, whatever argument you’re trying to win – but even during his widely criticised last three seasons at Collingwood, he’d only dropped from averaging 21.29 disposals a game in 2019 to 19.1 in 2021. On top of that, his 12 goals that year were a career-best.
Yes, that was two years ago, but my point is this: he was only below par in those years as that ‘extra midfielder’ by Brodie Grundy standards.
The problem is that Melbourne’s midfield don’t need any extra help at ground level from their ruckman. In 2018 and 2019, Taylor Adams, Scott Pendlebury and Adam Treloar were the Pies’ optimum centre bounce trio – the latter two of whom could certainly benefit from a big ruckman at the bottom of a pack getting it out to them to use their elite foot skills (Pendlebury) and game-breaking pace (Treloar) to maximum effect.
When your midfield, though, is Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca and Jack Viney, they’re more than capable of doing all that by themselves. Viney and Oliver are two of the game’s best contested possession and clearance machines, while Petracca ranked fifth last year for average contested possessions per game, and is, y’know, Christian Petracca.
As a result, Grundy wasn’t required nearly as much in open play as he was at Collingwood, failing to take a mark and registering only 12 disposals – well below his usual output. With just three clearances, his ground-ball work was also severely reduced from his peak.
If you’re a ruckman at the Dees, all you need to do at every contest is try and tap it to Oliver or Petracca’s advantage and let them do the rest. At least at stoppages, that’s been Gawn’s job for years, and he’s been superb at it.
This also just happens to be, at least according to any Collingwood supporter you come across, Grundy’s biggest weakness.
I’ve often thought this idea that Grundy just taps it to the opposition is a bit exaggerated: in 2019 and 2020, he finished second for average hitouts to advantage per match to Gawn, and in 2021 was behind only Nic Naitanui of regular ruckmen. That’s honestly fine.
What the stats don’t keep – at least not the official AFL publicly available ones – is hitouts to disadvantage; if this caused Pies fans to tear their hair out over the journey, then Dees fans got a taste on Friday night. Countless times Grundy got his hand to the ball first, only for it to be a Lion to shark it, cut a swathe through a Dees midfield not used to a lack of silver service, and drive it long to a May-less defence.
By quarter time, the Dees led the hitouts 12-11. They’d also been pumped in the clearances 16-6 – including a barely believable 8-1 from centre clearances – and used them to devastating effect, generating 21 inside 50s to six, including 15 in a row from the minute Gawn limped off until quarter time.
Making matters worse, four of the Lions’ six goals came from forward 50 stoppages – not even Brisbane, the best side in the AFL from scoring from them in 2022, only averaged a little more than 10 points per game from them, and just once had more than four goals from them across an entire match.
It was only quarter time, and things got worse from there: Daniher Tom Hawkinsing Grundy out of the way at this ruck contest to set up a Charlie Cameron goal a prime example.
Something has gone seriously wrong if a midfield with Petracca, Oliver and Viney is getting beaten down like this, especially when their ruckman is winning the majority of hitouts. It was the Demons’ worst midfield beatdown by the numbers since 2014 – clearances finished at 60-32 the Lions’ way. Nearly double!
Full credit to the Lions, though: winning it so comprehensively at the source, they still had to use it well and come prepared. And with a remarkable kick-handball ratio – 238 times they sunk the boot into the leather compared to just 100 by hand – it was clear their plan was to gain territory, drive the ball long forward, and put a May-less Melbourne defence under pressure against their army of talls.
It worked a treat. Jack Gunston led for the ball superbly all night, and only errant kicking prevented a bag; Joe Daniher was similar, but for once kicked wonderfully for goal. And at ground level, Cameron, Zac Bailey and Dayne Zorko were a constant menace.
But the Lions were up 44-23 in the clearance count at three quarter time, including 16-7 out of the centre. With that sort of domination, a 46-32 inside 50 advantage is probably par for the course, and from there a forward line as star-studded as the Lions’ should be putting any side to the sword.
Josh Dunkley and Lachie Neale, soundly beaten by Port Adelaide’s on-ball brigade last week, put on a clinic with nine and eight clearances respectively: Will Ashcroft also looked an absolute superstar with 31 disposals and nine clearances after an inauspicious debut. The Lions do have an impressive midfield – but they had it far too easy.
Chemistry will take time to come, and the Demons now have a chance to work things out on the training track rather than mid-game.
But with Gawn set to miss at least the next few weeks, and possibly even longer, they’ll want to get to it quick smart. And if Grundy couldn’t get any better at gelling with a midfield in a decade at Collingwood, is he capable of changing that in a matter of weeks?
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