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After a rough start to 2023 on the tipping front, could things, at last, be turning around?
The three favourites all got the job done on Sunday in Round 2 – and just as well, because before that a string of upsets (Carlton beating Geelong, St Kilda smashing the Western Bulldogs and North Melbourne holding on against Fremantle, to name a few) made it another nightmare weekend to negotiate.
Having said that, most of our tips are still in the toilet – or at least, mine are. Fingers crossed we get an easy week soon, and this one at least looks pretty straightforward. But as we all know, looks can be very deceiving.
Last week: 5
Brisbane, Collingwood, North Melbourne, Carlton, Essendon, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Sydney, Fremantle
Well… at least a five is better than a two!
It’s going to be a slow turnaround for me this year after a start like that, but I’m now at least only three off the leaders, and maybe only one really good round from completely wiping off that deficit.
Will it be this week? We’ll soon find out, but to kick it off I’m doing the inevitable, and turning my back on the Bulldogs. Sorry Luke Beveridge, but my trust will need to be earned back after last week’s dire performance, and a Brisbane side back on track after demolishing Melbourne would be a tough match even if they were firing on all cylinders.
A far closer affair will be Friday night’s blockbuster between the undefeated Collingwood and Richmond (the Tigers’ draw really makes this a promoter’s dream). I’ve backed the in-form Magpies, but I like the Tigers’ chances here, with their newfound midfield strength set to challenge the Pies for contested ball far more than Port Adelaide did last week. Plus, their frenetic pressure at their best should at least hinder the Magpies’ now-infamous rapid ball movement.
Saturday gets progressively harder to tip: North fully deserve favouritism against Hawthorn after two widlly different starts to the year; I’m expecting the first edition of the Clarko Cup to be won by Alastair himself. Carlton are just plain better than GWS, who will probably put up a good fight with Josh Kelly and Lachie Whitfield returning but won’t be able to stop the Blues’ powerful midfield.
And the evening’s Showdown – thanks for scheduling it against the game of the round, AFL – will in all likelihood be another close classic, but Port Adelaide are a pretty straightforward tip unless you’re braver than I am.
The other Saturday night game, though, is a tough one: the undefeated St Kilda and Essendon (hands up who tipped that two weeks ago? Anyone?) bidding to go 3-0 at the MCG. I’ve gone for Essendon here, partly because the loss of Jack Steele is a colossal blow for the Saints, partly because the new and improved Bombers should be a bigger test for Ross Lyon’s defensive discipline than the stodgy Fremantle or Bulldogs. Mostly Steele, though.
Sunday has one fizzer, one fascinating clash and one dead set beauty. We’ll get the fizzer out of the way first: a Geelong side desperate for a win simply ain’t losing to Gold Coast, even on the road – the Suns might have made this one an interesting tip if not for the hugely disappointing way they’ve started 2023.
As for the fascinating clash, a Western Derby always has plenty on the line, but it’s even more crucial than usual for Fremantle. 0-2 and having been met with a barrage of criticism during the week, the Dockers would expect to be streets better than West Coast, and Freo fans everywhere will be praying to get the job done and not have to cope with the smug smiles of Eagles supporters around the water cooler on Monday morning.
For their sake – and Liam Salter’s – I’ll back the Dockers.
A Max Gawn-less Melbourne is, as they proved on Friday night last week, a much-weakened powerhouse, and Sydney are just the team to exploit it. They stunned the Dees at the MCG in last year’s qualifying final, and even though Steven May is returning, there’s something about the Swans this year.
It’s their first major test after two easy kills to start the year, and even though they’re officially underdogs, they’ve got my tip.
Lachie Neale of the Lions helps Adam Treloar of the Bulldogs up off the ground. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Last week: 5
Brisbane, Collingwood, North Melbourne, Carlton, Essendon, Adelaide, Geelong, Melbourne, Fremantle
I mean, that round was no better to tip in than the first.
However, I’ve adopted the mentality that the worse the tipping results are, the better the footy is to watch, given the unpredictability this season is throwing up after just a fortnight.
It feels like decisiveness has been lacking, so that’s what I’ll be going for this week – and a happy F1 and WrestleMania weekend to us all.
The Bulldogs are terrible and I’m not convinced by Brisbane’s shaky defence. But at least we know where Chris Fagan will play his players and there’s continuity across the field, regardless of whether it’s convincing or otherwise.
My prediction? The lights stay on and the Lions win.
Collingwood has just about wrapped up the minor premiership after two rounds, but history has proved teams playing at their peak early in the season mightn’t necessarily be able to keep it going en route to a flag. Still, they’ll beat the Tigers.
Alastair Clarkson vs Sam Mitchell. That will be a fun contest in Tasmania on Saturday. A North Melbourne 3-0 start seems unbelievable, but it has to be tipped at this stage. Watch for the Hawks to be dragged through the media for months, then pick up a couple of minor wins before beating a Carlton and a St Kilda later in the season.
Carlton will beat GWS – I’m not sure the Giants are all that good.
The Saints are utterly decimated, yet Ross Lyon has them well-structured enough to cope. But there’s something about the Bombers’ approach, even though both clubs are prime candidates to notch early-season wins and then drop off. I’m going Essendon.
Here we go. Adelaide will beat Port Adelaide in the Showdown. Lock it in.
Heritage Bank Stadium doesn’t quite roll off the tongue as well as Metricon Stadium, does it? The only two games the Cats lost there against the Suns were in 2014 and 2017. It’s hard to see the reigning premiers losing three in a row, even though I think this will be close.
It seems time for a Brodie Grundy resurgence in the ruck – sorry, Peter Ladhams and Sydney. If Steven May’s back, the Demons knock over the Swans.
Finally, Fremantle wins. Please. They just have to.
Could a basketball solution help the AFL? (Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Last week: 4
Brisbane, Collingwood, North Melbourne, Carlton, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Melbourne, Fremantle
Another 4 for me last week; at least the difficulty of tipping to start 2023 means I haven’t already fallen behind the experts’ pack… yet.
Starting us off in Round 3, you just couldn’t tip the Bulldogs to beat Brisbane, even at home. They’ll surely be better than last week’s dire performance, but a Lions outfit that rediscovered their mojo against Melbourne last week should have too much firepower in every facet.
We’ve got a genuine Friday night blockbuster between Collingwood and Richmond, and this one is difficult to tip. The Magpies are the form team of the competition, but while the Tigers have been patchy, it feels like their contested ball strength and power forwards might be a difficult match-up for the Pies.
Still, Craig McRae’s men deserve their favouritism after two brilliant performances to start 2023, and when in doubt, that’s the clincher.
Even if North hadn’t won their first two games under Alastair Clarkson, you’d probably have to tip them to knock over a rank Hawks outfit. Carlton, too, should have few problems taking care of GWS on the road despite the likely returns of Josh Kelly and Lachie Whitfield; while the evening’s Showdown will probably be a typically close affair, Port Adelaide are just a comfortably better football side than Adelaide.
The other Saturday night game should be a ripper; St Kilda’s contested strength and defensive discipline against the Bombers’ pace and craftiness. One of them has to go 3-0, and I’ve been so impressed by the Saints’ start to 2023 that not even the loss of Jack Steele can stop me from tipping them.
Two of Sundays games are straightforward to tip – Geelong need a win desperately and Gold Coast, disappointingly, aren’t realistically going to stop them getting it, while even a dysfunctional Fremantle should be taking care of West Coast and quite comfortably. If either of them lose, though, that’s going to be a huge story.
Nestled in between them is a qualifying final rematch between Melbourne and Sydney. I reckon the Dees will be out for redemption here, even without Max Gawn: Steven May should be back, and with a fully fit Christian Petracca in midfield, the home side will get the job done against an in-form Swans side that has yet to be tested against a quality opposition.
Steven May of the Demons and Lance Franklin of the Swans compete for the ball. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Last week: 5
Brisbane, Collingwood, North Melbourne, Carlton, St Kilda, Adelaide, Geelong, Sydney, Fremantle
You know, I’ll take my miserable score of five last week, particularly given it would have been four if I hadn’t backed the Saints in over the hapless Doggies.
It isn’t an exceptionally bold nor impressive boast, but one I’m reluctantly sticking with.
It’s funny I mention the Dogs, as they kick us off this round, hosting the Lions. Brisbane had a strong win last week in all facets, but especially so if you ignore the farcical twelve minutes of game time after the Gabba lost its electricity.
My colleague (and sad Dogs fan) Tim argued Luke Beveridge has a month to save himself, but his redemption doesn’t start here: Brissy, easily.
A wildly more entertaining game comes on Friday night – Collingwood are ludicrously fun to watch this year, and even though Richmond earned themselves the hardest-worked easy win possible last week, I’m not inclined to back them at the ‘G.
Saturday features the two bona fide surprise packets at this early stage of the year, both of whom I’m backing this weekend: St Kilda (who face Essendon) and North (who’ll travel to Tassie against the Hawks). For the Saints, while they’ll be missing Jack Steele and face a Dons side who also have two wins to their name, I’m throwing all logic out the window and backing them in. Hey, it worked last week!
Hawthorn looked terrible against Sydney last week, so while the Kangaroos’ winning streak *is* going to collapse soon enough, I’m brave enough to think they’ll go three from three in Tasmania.
Another easy-ish game to predict is GWS hosting the Blues. Carlton did indeed look sensational against the Cats, while GWS lost a battle of the mediocre over in the west. The Giants are a verifiably better team with Josh Kelly and Lachie Whitfield in their team, but it’s hard to go past Carlton here.
Adelaide have played about two and a half genuinely strong quarters so far this year, but I’m going to be very, very stupid and back them against Port, who were hopeless against Collingwood.
No, I shall not elaborate further – call it a vibe.
To open Sunday, the presently winless Cats should earn their first win of the season by easily toppling the Suns, who played with spirit but not the execution last weekend. Freo, too, should finally move off zero points with a win in the Western Derby (and yes, I am desperately scared about this one).
And in Sunday’s free-to-air clash, Sydney should continue their strong start to the season with a tough win over the Demons, who are ostensibly favourites in this clash.
(Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
| Round 3 | Tim | Dem | Cam | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WB vs BL | BL | BL | BL | BL | BL |
| COL vs RCH | COL | COL | COL | COL | COL |
| HAW vs NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM |
| GWS vs CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR |
| STK vs ESS | ESS | ESS | STK | STK | STK |
| PA vs ADE | PA | ADE | PA | ADE | PA |
| GCS vs GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE |
| MEL vs SYD | SYD | MEL | MEL | SYD | MEL |
| FRE vs WCE | FRE | FRE | FRE | FRE | FRE |
| LAST WEEK | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| ROLLING TOTAL | 7 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 |
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