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Three weeks ago, St Kilda seemed dead in the water.
Their two best goalkickers sidelined through injury, including one of their two solid A-grade players in Max King, it was a severely weakened line-up that headed to Marvel Stadium to host a Fremantle outfit expected to put them to the sword.
The Saints found a way to win that day. They’ve been doing a fair bit of that winning thing lately, a crushing 53-point thumping of an outclassed Gold Coast their latest, and most impressive to date, triumph.
As it stands, only Collingwood rival them as the story of the season – and it just so happens the Saints have an extra win on the premiership-favourite Magpies (and you’d have to give them every chance to make that two extra wins when they lock horns in Gather Round).
Their football might be not as slick and spectacular as the Pies at full tilt, but it’s just as entertaining to watch, especially under the roof at Marvel Stadium. In fact, on turnovers, no team have moved the ball faster all season – not even the Magpies.
Central to it all has been Ross Lyon, with the Saints hierarchy’s brutal decision to cull Brett Ratten and call up their former head honcho looking more and more inspired with every passing week. The St Kilda of old were a side that beat themselves as often as not; now, emboldened by a game plan that has unlocked their strengths and covered for their weaknesses, they’re undefeated after four rounds.
Their latest victims, Gold Coast, were simply disembowelled after an even first term, bushwhacked from stoppages where they’d have gone in expecting an ascendancy with the Saints minus Jack Steele, and unable to go with them on the outside. Modern footy puts more importance on speed than at any other point in the game’s history, and right now the Saints have it in droves.
The one negative I can find for the Saints is this: I’m not convinced King’s return will make them any better than they’re going at the moment. Indeed, the presence of a spearhead coming in off no pre-season, while a definite upgrade on the gritty but limited Zaine Cordy, will change the make-up of a forward line going quite swimmingly at the moment with a host of no-namers.
It’s an exceptional problem to have, though: and if Lyon can figure out a way to get these injury-stricken Saints firing like they are right now, then he’ll have no issues slotting King back seamlessly.
The Saints’ most pressing problem heading into the match was curbing the dominant Suns’ midfield that ripped Geelong apart last week; the contested strength of Matt Rowell, the spreading speed of Noah Anderson and the all-round package that is Touk Miller is a formidable unit when at full bore.
Having Jarrod Witts be a late withdrawal was a handy boost; but the Saints showed early they weren’t planning on matching the Suns at the coalface directly. Jack Sinclair was a common presence at centre bounces, and his immaculate ball use and pace frequently exposed the slower Suns on the counterattack – and helped a system set up to not give them a spare second when they had the footy.
Without the ball, the Saints are the most frenetic pressure team in the league. They nearly broke Fox Footy’s pressure gauge after a frenetic start to the third quarter – they had it up to 234 midway through the term, not just a season high but beyond the meter’s on-screen limit of 220.
Across the second and third quarters, that pressure meter averaged out at 214. The result? The Suns, a kicking team, went at just 47 per cent by foot, causing turnovers aplenty. And turnovers are where the Saints make their bank: 74 points of their 113 for the evening came from intercepts.
Sinclair around the ball made for a huge asset in that regard; so too did the bullocking work of Hunter Clark (12 contested possessions) as a Steele substitute. Jade Gresham’s four tackles were worth every bit as much as his 18 disposals, while Marcus Windhager’s sheer gut running and repeat efforts were remarkable for a player in just his second season.
Behind the ball, the Saints set up to neutralise the high, hopeful kicks their upfield pressure on the ball-carrier makes just about inevitable. They have plenty of height in defence, which could make them vulnerable to quick ball movement and open space for leading forwards – as it did at times last season. But they’re perfectly suited to the task Lyon has them performing.
With every passing game, it’s getting harder to understand what past AFL recruiters didn’t see in Callum Wilkie to leave him in the footy wilderness for four consecutive drafts. Now into his fifth season at Moorabbin, he’s yet to miss a game, rarely if ever loses to a direct opponent, and reads the play superbly in the air.
Ratten never truly unlocked the latter strength of Wilkie’s, who mostly had his hands full dealing with the opposition’s best tall while left largely on an island. But under Lyon, he is thriving, to the point where he’s only behind Steven May among key defenders in the AFL.
Another seven intercept marks among 11 for the match, 24 disposals at 87 per cent, and keeping Levi Casboult to just one goal (which, incidentally, wasn’t his fault). If he’s not getting phone calls this week asking for his blazer dimensions, the All-Australian selectors have dropped the ball.
He’s not the only monster down there: Dougal Howard is enjoying a career-best season, benefitting enormously from the same upfield pressure that has taken Wilkie’s game to a new level. Like his teammate, Howard reads the ball superbly in the air, and he’s been empowered under Lyon to fly for marks instead of sinking his fist to the ball at ever opportunity, with another nine against the Suns – three of them intercepts.
Throw in Josh Battle (10 marks, five of them intercepts), the most mobile of the trio and their go-to on transition plays if and when they switch, and the Saints rule the skies in defence.
Then, when the ball is won back, it’s foot to the accelerator time. That’s where Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Bradley Hill come in.
Ratten’s biggest failure as Saints coach was his inability to do anything with Hill’s many weapons: exposed defensively when played at half-back and frequently unused on the wing, he became something of a whipping boy in three difficult seasons in red and black.
Under Lyon, who coached him to a best and fairest in his first season at Fremantle, the triple-premiership Hawk has been rejuvenated. Helping matters is the Saints’ desire to play the wings more than they did under Ratten, and most of all the speed they put on the ball. No one is speedier at the club than Hill – and he’s still the best kick in red, white and black.
The Saints love the ball in his hands, and constantly look for him in transition. Remember those early days of 2020 and 2021 when the Saints were ignoring chip passes to Hill in an acre of space for a long hacked kick forward? They never miss the opportunity to bring him into the game now.
Hill is often the second link in the Saints’ pace chain: the first is Wanganeen-Milera. With Sinclair deployed in midfield, the rebounder-in-chief role was in the hands of the 20-year old for the night… and he performed it spectacularly.
With 538 metres gained – behind only Sinclair and Seb Ross – the youngster’s raking right foot and desire to run and carry make Wanganeen-Milera streaming out of defence and hitting up a teammate a common sight at Saints’ games these days.
His stat line also demonstrates the different ways the Saints move the ball in different parts of the ground. They’ve been a more handball-friendly team than most this year, racking up another 201 of them on Saturday night; but Wanganeen-Milera rarely looks to overuse it when coming out of defence.
22 of his 24 disposals were kicks – plenty of them, admittedly, kick-ins – and while he had five turnovers, not only could the Saints cover for him defensively – Wilkie, Howard and Battle never press too far up the ground, allowing the Saints protection from errant kicks they seldom had under Ratten – but they never rattled Wanganeen-Milera enough to stop biting off dangerous kicks when the moment was right.
If it’s not Hill on the end of those kicks, it’s probably Mason Wood, who while not as spectacularly brilliant as against Essendon was still a key contributor. Strong in the air and running all day – he spent 94 per cent of the game on-field, behind only Wilkie and Howard at the Saints – his asset isn’t so much his speed, but more his knack of getting himself in dangerous positions.
No regular wingman can outmark Wood at the moment, making him another tall to get past when the Suns had to kick down the line; he can also roll up to stoppages as an extra big-bodied midfielder, though that wasn’t required as much on Saturday night.
The Saints’ forward line wouldn’t have a prayer if the ball was coming in like it was for much of the two previous years: slow ball movement, long hopeful kicks, and King or bust in the air.
With the ball coming in so quickly, the Suns were never given a chance to fill up space defensively, or given the same opportunities as the Saints were to pluck intercept marks. It meant pockets of space everywhere, and the Saints suddenly have options everywhere to kick to.
The proof was in the pudding: 15 marks inside 50 to 3 is a stat line that will win you just about every game. And what’s more, they’re getting them in dangerous positions. Jack Higgins, at times errant in front of goal in the past, kicked five goals, and you’d expect a player of his ability to nail every single one of them.
Higgins’ pressure has lifted considerably this year, but his greatest strength is his goalkicking nous; the Saints now have more than enough pressure players to allow Higgins to be more aggressively minded.
Dan Butler, with two goals and two tackles inside 50, is back to his ferocious best after a down 2021 and 2022; Gresham, too, is just as dangerous when the ball hits the ground near goal as he is as the Saints’ main line-breaking midfielder.
Mattaes Phillipou throws his weight around, Zaine Cordy creates contests and brings the ball to ground, and Anthony Caminiti’s athleticism and mobility are perfectly suited to a Saints team where you don’t have to be Tom Hawkins to get chances inside 50.
Anthony Caminiti of the Saints celebrates a goal. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)
Then, of course, there’s Mitch Owens. I can’t help wondering whether his role this year as the Saints’ default spearhead will change the way forward lines are set up across the league.
At 191cm tall and in his second year, Owens shouldn’t be plucking huge contested marks; but whenever he’s given a clean run and jump at the ball, his hands are supremely sticky. Four of his marks on Saturday night were contested, with Sam Collins and Charlie Ballard as opponents. Those guys aren’t no-names.
Even more valuable is his work when the ball hits the ground. King, for all his contested-marking prowess, can be a liability if he doesn’t grab it cleanly; as a defender, if you neutralise the contest against him, you can start to breathe a little easier. With Owens, your problems are just beginning.
Owens’ follow-up, and his strength in close, is extraordinary: he had a game-high 19 contested possessions as a key forward, on a dry deck. With 27 disposals, 18 of them handballs, and seven score involvements, it was as un-key-forward-like a match as you could imagine… and he was best afield by a street because of it.
Of course, he still has the nose for a goal, and he’ll kick some spectacular ones this season – though this one will be hard to beat.
It was too much for the Suns; only in the final quarter, with Rowan Marshall subbed off, did they begin to get on top from clearances, winning 10 of the first 11 from three quarter time onwards. But by that point, it was far too late.
This has always been the genius of Ross Lyon: take a team big on talent but light on depth, structure a game plan around their strengths, give the biggest names roles they can dominate in, and never give the opposition an inch.
Mitch Owens isn’t Nick Riewoldt. Jade Gresham isn’t David Mundy. Bradley Hill isn’t Leigh Montagna. Brad Crouch isn’t Nat Fyfe. Jack Higgins isn’t Stephen Milne.
But they don’t need to be. This isn’t a side with the trademark Lyon hallmarks of defensive suffocation, stodgy ball movement, grinding out tough wins and dragging even the best opponents down into mediocrity.
This is a game plan perfectly honed to modern footy: turn it over, go like lightning when you do, and keep doing it until you score.
It’s simple – in principle, at least. But it’s why Lyon’s Saints are 4-0 and on top of the ladder – and it’s why everyone in red, white and black is rightfully daring to dream.
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