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Ready or not, the Queensland Reds’ moment of truth is on Ballymore’s doorstep.
Judgement Day won’t be delivered by the end of the working week but will likely be sealed in the minutes before Close of Business hours on Friday afternoon.
Bizarrely, some might not even see it.
Friday’s 2:05pm AEST kick-off in Apia is a historic moment for rugby in the Pacific and, indeed, Southern Hemisphere rugby, but the early afternoon start time will mean many watching back in Australia either won’t know the match is on or won’t be able to tune in.
Nonetheless, the result holds huge ramifications.
Brad Thorn’s Reds head to Samoa knowing a win is important. Photo: Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images
The Reds always knew a decision would have to be made this season regarding Brad Thorn’s future, they just hoped it would be on his terms. It still promises to be, albeit just not the way both parties hoped.
After the celebrations of early 2021 where 42,000 fans watched the Reds beat the Brumbies in an epic at Suncorp Stadium to take out the Super Rugby AU competition, Queensland’s fall has been stark and uncomfortable to watch as the losses have mounted and players have either left or others failed to develop as expected.
The Reds have won just once against New Zealand opposition in the past two-and-a-half years.
That’s the only result that matters. Not the Reds’ dismantling of a dishevelled Force outfit in Melbourne.
Indeed, it’s what Thorn spoke about in 2021 when he spoke about the importance – and necessity – of playing New Zealand opposition rather than sticking to an Australian-only competition.
On his own metric, the Reds have been found wanting.
Injuries have played a part, but they are excuses and would merely camouflage the franchise’s shortcomings.
Importantly, the Reds, The Roar understands, aren’t trying to use them as a reason for their fall from grace.
But like it or not, the Reds head to Samoa to take on Moana Pasifika with Thorn’s future firmly on the line.
Happier times: Reds coach Brad Thorn celebrates winning the Super RugbyAU Final match over the ACT Brumbies at Suncorp Stadium on May 08, 2021, in Brisbane. Photo: Jono Searle/Getty Images
Even before their heavy loss to the Brumbies, where they had a half-century put on them by the fiercest rivals in recent years, it’s believed QRU board members thought Thorn could fall on his sword were they to lose.
He didn’t, but the result was yet another humiliation.
Thorn, whose frustration was obvious at half-time and full-time, said he’s not a quitter in the moments after the result.
Should the Reds lose in Apia to the winless Moana Pasifika, he might not have a choice.
Winless in their past three matches, a fourth consecutive defeat could just be the straw that breaks Thorn’s strong back.
The Reds have had urgent meetings to start the week and are hopeful of simplifying their game plan to give them the best chance of a positive result on Friday.
The playing group is said to still respect Thorn but is questioning his game plan. That’s not solely the head coach’s responsibility, but the buck stops with Thorn.
The QRU will save their mid-season review for next week, which just so happens to be a bye-round.
The Brumbies celebrated a big win over the Reds at Suncorp Stadium on April 07, 2023, in Brisbane to heap more pressure on Brad Thorn. Photo: Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images
The Reds don’t want to preconceive Friday’s result nor Thorn’s future, but they always thought 2023 would be his last year as head coach.
Thorn himself admitted that he wasn’t sure what his future held beyond 2023 earlier in the year, believing a break could be necessary after a dramatic rise from player to coach within the space of three years.
One thing is for sure, he won’t be the Reds’ coach in 2023.
Whether he remains as head coach beyond this weekend remains to be seen. That is the question on the tongues of many.
Some believe cutting him adrift, particularly with a bye-round to follow, makes sense and would allow a caretaker to prove themselves for the remainder of the season.
First-year assistant Mick Hennan, who coached Queensland University to six titles, could be an option should the Reds pull the cord.
But a number of sources have cautioned against the move, believing they would throw Heenan under the bus given the mountain the Reds have to climb and the difficult finish to the season they have, where they will play three New Zealand sides in their final four matches.
Some have also spoken about the huge leap from club coaching a couple of nights a week to jumping into the furnace on a full-time basis.
The Reds also want to land a big fish.
Brad Thorn of the Barbarians chats with the Barbarians coach Robbie Deans prior to their match against an England XV at Twickenham Stadium on May 31, 2015 in London. Photo: Steve Bardens/Getty Images
Sources have told The Roar the Reds have long wanted their next big signing announcement to be a coach, not a player.
You can understand why too, because, for all the talent in Queensland, the Reds have only had one strong season this century. It’s an inditement on the QRU.
Former Wallabies coach Robbie Deans, who has turned the Panasonic Wild Knights into Japanese heavyweights over the past decade, is likely the preferred target.
Deans has a strong relationship with the Reds given the Super Rugby franchise’s partnership with Wild Knights.
Over three decades of coaching, Deans has built one of international rugby’s strongest reputations of developing and nurturing talent and, indeed, delivering results.
Those three attributes are what the Reds need, either as a coach or director of rugby.
“Robbie Deans was a fantastic coach for the Crusaders, came and coached the Wallabies and when he got sacked from the Wallabies he went to Panasonic and has been there ever since and has done a fantastic job,” Wallabies coach Eddie Jones said of Deans on his podcast Eddie recently.
Whether the former Wallabies coach, whose winning percentage (58.67) was marginally higher than Jones’ first stint with Australia (57.89) and considerably higher than Ewen McKenzie and Michael Cheika (50) and Dave Rennie (38), wants the job remains to be seen.
While the 63-year-old’s family predominantly lives in Australia, Deans likely doesn’t need the task in the twilight of his coaching career.
Former Reds, Scotland and Wallabies assistant coach Matt Taylor is a contender to coach the Reds. Photo: Paul Devlin/ Getty Images
The Reds’ Super Rugby-winning defence coach Matt Taylor would likely be interested, too.
Taylor, who is currently Peter Hewat’s assistant at Ricoh Black Rams, has a decade of international coaching experience in Scotland and the Wallabies.
The well-liked defence coach has some allies in Australia, with the former Wallabies assistant well respected by Scott Johnson, who is currently an advisor to the Reds, and met with board member Pat Howard before heading to Japan.
Closer to home, respected Super Rugby assistants Rob Seib (Brumbies), Jason Gilmore (Waratahs) and Tim Sampson (Rebels) are all products of Queensland’s pathways and would likely jump at the chance of taking on the role.
The question is: are any proven Super Rugby head coaches?
The answer is no, not yet anyway.
Tim Sampson during pre-season in 2022 at the Melbourne Rebels. Photo: Sam Richards, Rebels Media
Not including Laurie Fisher, who won’t be seen in anything but a Brumbies bucket hat, nor Jim McKay, who isn’t travelling with the Reds, Sampson is the most experienced professional head coach currently in Australia and is quickly rebuilding his reputation in Melbourne.
But the Reds can’t afford to get their next head coach wrong.
For a state with as much talent coming through the pathways, Australian rugby is relying on the Reds rising once more. Nor can it be a Halley’s Comet like in 2011 either.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.