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Opinion
There’s an argument out there that the first game of this weekend’s Round 8 is the whole reason for Moana Pasifika’s being: playing their inaugural home game as the team to represent the Pacific Islands on island soil.
Moana Pasifika hosting the Queensland Reds in Apia is going to be a significant event, of that there should be no doubt. The impact of the Drua playing in Fiji is as immediate as it is bruising, and the Reds will undoubtedly be preparing for something similar.
Or, they should be. Ladder standings and for-and-againsts aren’t going to count for much once the ball is kicked off on Friday afternoon.
And the story lines are already there: Moana creates Pasifika rugby history v Queensland left even more Reds-faced.
Hell of an occasion. But frankly, bloody hard to tip.
And then we have Hurricanes v Chiefs. 1 v 2, in the Cake Tin, for the title of ‘Best New Zealand Team Not Called the Blues or Crusaders’.
Both teams in outstanding form, on significant winning streaks, but with the Chefs coming off a welcome bye week (the ‘Canes get theirs next weekend). Good luck, tipsters.
LAST WEEK: 4s all ‘round. Even The Crowd.
OVERALL: Digger 35, Christy 34, Brett 33, Geoff 32, Harry 28; The Crowd 32.
DIGGER WATCH: 25 correct tips on the bounce.
TIPS: MOANA PASIFIKA, BRUMBIES, HURRICANES, WARATAHS
Tricky, tricky round. Trickier than a touchie hiding his flag after a rash moment of excitement. So, it’s time to roll the dice.
Moana Pasifika in Apia? Feels like a no brainer. How amped they must be feeling to put on a quality show, it would be exciting to be there. Normally you would think the local conditions would be an advantage but it seems more likely the Reds will be more accustomed, hailing from Queensland as opposed to South Auckland.
The Reds really should nab this but gut feelings (or hope), Moana Pasifika to create a wee fairy-tale and history for their franchise.
Really looking forward to seeing how my ‘Canes front against the leading Chiefs on Saturday. A quirk of fate sees a welcome 2.35 kick off too (pity about all the club stuff, but ya know).
I am concerned that the Hurricanes attack is not quite clinical enough nor disciplined enough to ultimately tip this impressive Chiefs side over, but I also have a theory that sides tend to be a wee bit scratchy coming off a bye and the Chiefs form was not so omnipotent beforehand – the Blues incompetence keeping them on the unbeaten side of the equation a few rounds back, in my humble opinion.
With the Highlanders giving the Hurricanes a good roughing up front last week I think the ‘Canes may be better prepared for this encounter right now; ‘Canes by one, which will be plenty.
I love the Drua, but the Brumbies at home is a bridge too far, and while the Force do have a knack of tipping the Waratahs over, the Waratahs should have too many points in them over 80 minutes.
SURE THING: The loose forward battle in Wellington, assuming selections of the big boys, will be a must watch for young and old.
TIPS: REDS, BRUMBIES, CHIEFS, WARATAHS
This week’s tips are brought to you by the letter ‘D’.
D is Desperation, and that’s what Queensland find themselves swimming in in this weekend’s Round 8. Next week’s bye can’t come quick enough, and the inevitable mid-season reset that will almost certainly come with it.
It’s going to be an unbelievable occasion in Apia, incredibly emotional for the home side on truly home soil, but Moana’s finishing is their Achilles heel this season.
They’re scored less than 10 percent of their tries in the last 25 minutes of games and have now not scored a try in the last 25 minutes in six of their seven games. And they’ve conceded 30 tries in their last four starts. Their bye can’t come quick enough either.
D is also for Depth, such are the Brumbies’ riches in this department in 2023. Scottish lock Sam Thomson will become their 35th player used in their first eight games, and incredibly, their 11th debutant. But their defence will need to go the distance as the Drua love nothing more than running in a late try or six.
Coach Brad Thorn of the Reds (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
D is for Daylight, a sudden necessity in Wellington this week when they looked up and realised ‘ah crap, those new lights don’t work yet’. But if anything, the ‘Canes and Chefs in the sunshine (full disclosure: I’ve not checked the forecast) probably enhances this contest and certainly makes it harder to tip. I’ve changed my mind three times in landing back on the Chiefs, and I reserve the right to change my mind again up until kick-off.
And D is also for Demanding, which is what Darren Coleman will be doing of his team this week coming off the bye. The Force had the week off too and would love nothing more than to sing their team song non-stop on the red-eye back to Perth.
And it could happen. It’s happened before.
But the Waratahs need to step up again. The hype train has been pulled off the tracks for maintenance and recalibration, and the Tahs are nearly back to ‘under the radar’ status. They need to step up. It’s time they started playing like the team they should be able to play like.
SURE THING: Remote controls will be forcefully deposited across rooms with the twin discoveries of the afternoon kick-off in Apia, and the even earlier afternoon kick-off in Wellington. Either way, arvo footy! How good!!
TIPS: MOANA PASIFIKA, BRUMBIES, CHIEFS, WARATAHS
All week the story has been the Reds. Win, lose, or draw, the story will still be about the Reds next week and their under pressure coach Brad Thorn.
Thorn hasn’t lost the dressing sheds, but the Reds will be walking into another pressure cooker. Friday’s afternoon kick-off probably should have been moved to Saturday, but the fans should still be out in force to welcome Moana Pasifika to Apia.
If the Drua’s games in Fiji are anything to go by, the Reds have their work cut out for them. It’ll be hot.
Moana Pasifika put together their best performance of the year against the Crusaders last week and they’ll be hard to beat against a Reds side missing many and feeling the heat on and off the field.
In the nation’s capital, Stephen Larkham has ensured the Brumbies won’t take their foot off the gas. Last years’ experience of missing out on a home semi-final means the Brumbies recognise the need to collect bonus points along the way. They’ll be far too good for Fiji.
(Photo by Morne de Klerk/Getty Images)
While the Reds’ match in Samoa is a historic moment, the Hurricanes’ home clash against the Chiefs is the match of the round. The two New Zealand sides can light it up from anywhere on the field, but the Chiefs’ forward pack probably gives them a slight edge over the Hurricanes.
As for the Waratahs and Force, well, the home side should be too strong – but we’ve said that before.
SURE THING: If the Reds lose, they’ll miss the finals. It’s high stakes in Sydney too, whoever loses will also miss the top eight.
TIPS: REDS, BRUMBIES, CHIEFS, WARATAHS
This week has thrown up a couple of uncharacteristically early starts. Just like a fresh-faced, over-eager adolescent finding his way in the courting world, this has the potential to be over before it’s even started.
The opening match is the most intriguing tipping proposition so far this year. Moana Pasifika put together some wonderful play against the Crusaders. Another reference point is how difficult Samoa made life for the All Blacks in Apia a few years back; Brad Weber still has nightmares about that day.
On the other hand, the Reds aren’t a poor side, they’re just not quite as good as what their coach and fans would like them to be. They have enough quality in their ranks to sneak a result, but only by a taro-skin.
No such issues in Canberra. The Brumbies. By a dozen coconut husks.
Gotta like the way the Canes are going. Gotta like the way the Chiefs are going. Gotta like the Chiefs just a tiny bit more. By a sneaky DMac grin.
Renewed after their New Zealand trek, the Force will have targeted the Waratahs a long way off. The Waratahs will have targeted the Force. The Tahs, by a small, broken twig.
SURE THING: Some folk might be disappointed if Apia doesn’t look or feel quite the same as Suva or Lautoka. That’s because they are very different places. This is a historic occasion for the Moana Pasifika franchise. Let’s everyone enjoy it for what it is.
TIPS: REDS, BRUMBIES, HURRICANES, WARATAHS.
This is my path back. This is it. I must stick to my systems. Have faith in the process. Ignore the outcome.
I call it the Thorn Doctrine.
The struggling Moana Pasifika should gain a bit more energy and passion from the place of the match. Who would want to tackle Levi Aumua if he runs even harder?
But the problem, to be honest, has not been a lack of commitment or fire. The LVs have placed a premium on squad depth and bench quality. The Reds, who are basically the sixth or seventh best team in the comp, should be able to take it at the death or cruise away if they are ahead at 60:00.
The Brumbies are a quality top 5 outfit who do not leak points courtesy of a magnificent scramble defence, but that will be tested mightily. ACT by 5 mauls or pick and go tries to 3 break away tries.
The Chiefs are the in-form team with a strong loose trio, but the Canes at home with superhero loosies should have just a tiny bit of edge. There are quite a few individual matchups which should have Ian Foster and his team paying attention.
Kini Naholo of the Hurricanes (Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)
The Waratahs are the tournament’s enigmatic side, but I have a feeling they will give the Force a hiding this week, with extra tomato sauce.
SURE THING: If a card is issued, of any shade, using any system, with any amount of time, half the fans will cry foul.
| Round 8 | Geoff | Digger | Harry | Brett | Christy | The Crowd |
| Overall | 32 | 35 | 28 | 33 | 34 | 32 |
| Last week | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| MOA v RED | Reds | Moana Pasifika | Reds | Reds | Moana Pasifika | |
| BRU v DRU | Brumbies | Brumbies | Brumbies | Brumbies | Brumbies | Announced |
| HUR v CHI | Chiefs | Hurricanes | Hurricanes | Chiefs | Chiefs | Friday |
| WAR v FOR | Waratahs | Waratahs | Waratahs | Waratahs | Waratahs | afternoon |
[BOLD] Get your tips in now – The Crowd’s tips will be revealed Friday afternoon AEST.