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Opinion
The salary cap only does so much to even out the NRL – the clubs with better management, coaching, talent identification and financial acumen will still have a competitive advantage over poorly run rivals.
In the past six years, three clubs have won all the premierships, divided equally between the Storm, Roosters and Panthers as they try for the first three-peat since 1983.
Souths (2014), the Cowboys (‘15) and Cronulla (‘16) are the only other sides who have snared the trophy in the past decade while 10 clubs are officially in a drought.
The Dolphins are only seven rounds into their existence in the big league but expansion teams usually take a decade or more before they get their first premiership, if they even get one, apart from Canterbury (1938 in their fourth season), Canberra (1989 in year eight), Brisbane (1992 in their fifth year) and Melbourne, who shocked the NRL world by claiming the title at their second attempt in 1999.
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In the first 14 years of the NRL era, nine clubs shared the glory of a premiership win but over the past 11 seasons, that number has dropped to six.
The Melbourne Storm celebrating winning the NRL final inn 1999. Photo: NRL
Looking ahead, of the 10 teams with decade-plus droughts, all the clubs have plans to reach the top but they each have one thing in common – only a small chance of success anytime soon. Even if the competition was a level playing field, by definition each team has a one in 17 shot, or a 5.89% chance, of being the premiers.
Club by club, here’s how the potential drought-breakers are shaping up.
Their chances of breaking their 12-year barren run are tied to Tom Trbojevic’s hamstrings and the last few years of their on-field general, captain Daly Cherry-Evans’ career.
Trbojevic is only 26 but DCE is 34 and likely to retire when his contract ends in 2025 so the next few seasons on the horizon could be their best for a while when it comes to landing the club’s ninth trophy.
After waiting a quarter of a century before their first title in 1972, the current drought will match their equal-longest since then (1996-2008) if they don’t win this year.
There’s no premiership on the horizon any time soon given the past dozen years of under-achievement yielding just one playoff victory since their Grand Final triumph.
The third season of Anthony Griffin’s tenure set to end with another rebuild under a new coach.
But there is hope for the future with rising stars Jayden Sullivan, Talatau Amone and Tyrell Sloan potentially forming the nucleus of an up-and-coming roster.
A lot will depend on who they appoint as coach for 2024 but the premiership drought is, at best, still a few years away from breaking.
They have invested in youth in recent seasons and there is a pathway to the playoffs now with young skipper Tino Fa’asuamaleaui and second-rower David Fifita the linchpins.
The Titans are trying to shed their reputation as a retirement home for washed-up players and with a much more stable ownership structure these days, combined with a focus on nurturing their junior base, it is not inconceivable that they will become the first sporting outfit from the Gold Coast to win a major title.
The Broncos and Eels have the best chance out of the 10 drought clubs of Grand Final glory in the near future.
Brisbane are somewhat reliant on captain Adam Reynolds’ ageing legs staying on the field to direct the team around the park but with the likes of Payne Haas, Patrick Carrigan, Reece Walsh, Kotoni Staggs, Selwyn Cobbo and Ezra Mam still not in the prime years of their career, the future looks bright.
After winning six titles in a 15-year stretch, it’s almost inconceivable that the Broncos have now waited longer still for their seventh trophy.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Kevin Walters has defied his critics to get the team firing and on top of the ladder this year after seven rounds to earn another couple of years as coach.
They are all but certain to return to the finals this season and there’s a decent chance of them getting a crack at a premiership in the near future.
And then there’s the Tigers. This joint venture has the longest active playoff drought at 11 years and all but certain to rise this season after an 0-7 start to their campaign.
After collecting the wooden spoon last year, they have at least attracted a few decent recruits to the club for the first time in a long time and there is a long-term plan in effect, centring around Benji Marshall taking over from returning veteran Tim Sheens after next season.
However, as great as Marshall was as a player, that does not guarantee success as a coach but if the club focuses on maximising the talent in its vast junior nursery, another title is not out of the question somewhere down the line.
But if the joint venture continues to be dogged by factionalism and internal bickering, more mediocrity is a given.
For a club that won six premierships in a quarter of a century from the 1980 Entertainers onwards, the past 18 seasons have been tough to take.
The Bulldogs have at least made it to the Grand Final on a couple of occasions in 2012 and ‘14 but in recent years it’s been rebuild after rebuild under a conga line of coaches.
Phil Gould’s arrival as general manager a couple of years ago has led to several big-name recruits and a heavy investment in Cameron Ciraldo as the young coach who can take Canterbury back to the promised land.
(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
However, most title-winning teams in the NRL era have been stacked with players that clubs have developed from early in their career rather than too heavy on imports.
Whether the lavish spending leads to the Dogs’ ninth premiership remains to be seen but there is some reason to be optimism around Belmore, unlike the past six seasons where they haven’t sniffed the playoffs, finishing no higher than 11th.
Immortal halfbacks don’t grow on trees and the Knights have not been legitimate title contenders since Andrew Johns retired 15 years ago after starring in their 1997 and 2001 triumphs.
In fact, they haven’t finished a regular season higher than seventh since 2006 and apart from an unlikely run to the preliminary final during Wayne Bennett’s second of three years as coach in 2013, they haven’t won any other playoff matches since Johns was forced to hang up his boots due to a neck injury.
Newcastle struggle to attract top-notch players and when they do, the end up paying huge money to not only recruit them but keep them, as we’ve seen with the risky move to hand Kalyn Ponga a multimillion-dollar deal until the end of 2027.
They have the financial clout to keep their local products but they will need a bumper crop of juniors coming through the ranks to become true title contenders again.
Trying to predict the future of the Warriors is tough during the 80 minutes of a match, let alone for the rest of the season or into future years.
They have revived their fortunes under new coach Andrew Webster to start 2023 with a 5-2 record but they actually have one of the older rosters in the NRL and many of their better players, such as Shaun Johnson and Tohu Harris, will be retiring or moving into the twilight of their careers in the next year or two.
Marata Niukore and Shaun Johnson celebrate. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
The Warriors can only be successful if their talent identification is spot on so that they keep New Zealand’s brightest prospects on home soil instead of the seemingly endless procession of talents like Joey Manu, Dylan Brown, Brandon Smith and James Fisher-Harris signing with Australian clubs as teenagers.
Like the Knights, it’s a tough sell for Canberra to get star free agents to join them.
Their glory days of the late 1980s and early ‘90s was built around a golden generation of local talent supplemented with Queensland imports and a few Kiwis thrown into the mix.
The premiership’s expansion into those areas cut off the Green Machine’s pipeline and they have only been to one Grand Final, four years ago, since Mal Meninga’s emotional retirement when they belted the Bulldogs in the 1994 decider.
Sadly for Raiders fans, the veterans from that 2019 runners-up outfit are all pretty much past their prime and another rebuild is required in the national capital even if star five-eighth Jack Wighton decides to stick around.
The good news for long-suffering Eels fans is they have everything in place to challenge for a premiership, the bad news is there’s a team a few kilometres further west that flogged them in last year’s Grand Final and are not going anywhere.
There was plenty of talk that the Eels’ premiership window would be closing when they lost a few stars in the off-season and the jury is still out on whether that is the case after their 3-4 start to the year.
Eels players are dejected after defeat in the 2022 NRL Grand Final. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
But they still have the elements of a potential premiership-winning side – elite halves in Mitchell Moses and Dylan Brown, a powerful pack headed up by Junior Paulo, Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Ryan Matterson, plus plenty of attacking potency out wide in Clint Gutherson, Maika Sivo and Will Penisini.
However, they seem to lack the X-factor needed in big games that separates the very good teams from the great ones.
If the drought is going to break, it needs to be in the next couple of years because the core of their team is heading towards the tail end of their career.
Eels fans waited 34 years before winning their first title in 1981 and after gorging on four in six seasons, have now spent another 36 seasons waiting for their next one.
Hopefully they won’t burn their stadium down like when they broke through the first time but it’s going to be one helluva party in Parramatta when they finally end the NRL’s longest active premiership drought.