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It’s Anzac Round, and you know what that means. No, not tastefully honouring our fallen heroes with a weekend of quiet contemplation and vowing to never let the horrors of war repeat – but five solid days of footy action.
Yes, the day has, like most public holidays, been corporatised to the very edge of tastefulness, but some things still stand true: the deathly silence at the MCG while The Last Post is played remains utterly moving, while Fremantle’s Len Hall tribute game is one of the underrated highlights of Western Australia’s sporting events.
It’s a fascinating weekend to tip, too: straightforward enough that three of our expert tippers have the exact same choices for all nine games, yet not so obvious that the one of us who went rogue can’t head in with every confidence fortune will favour the brave.
Grab your commemorative Anzac Day jersey (only $119.99 from the official AFL store, and we’ll even send some of the proceeds to the RSL!) and let’s dive in to the weekend ahead.
Last week: 6
Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Geelong, Adelaide, St Kilda, Gold Coast, Melbourne, Collingwood
Every single 50-50 or lower I’ve picked this season has blown up in my face – even in Gather Round, the easiest week so far to tip, I scored a gruesome 6.
So this week, I’m sticking with all favourites; that way, if it all goes bad, at least everyone else goes down with me. *laughs maniacally*
Fun fact: I haven’t tipped a single Bulldogs match right all year. Even if I wasn’t worried about the Dogs’ painful ball movement, their poor inside 50 entries or their ghastly transition defending, sheer superstition would have me picking Fremantle and hoping I can reverse-curse my team back into form.
West Coast have a decent record at Adelaide Oval, as Power fans should well know (Luke Shuey in 2017 or Jeremy McGovern in 2018, anyone?) Having said that, with only 24 fit players to choose from, they don’t have a prayer here. GWS should fare better on their home soil against the fickle Brisbane, but the Lions tend to travel to Sydney better than anywhere else in the country, and unless Harry Himmelberg can single-handedly win another match for the Giants at both ends, they’ll find it tough.
Saturday night sees the first proper blockbuster of the round, with Geelong and Sydney locking horns in a grand final rematch that features about four of last year’s big dance teams. That’s only a slight exaggeration: injuries have struck both teams hard, with the Swans’ missing key backs in Paddy and Tom McCartin likely to be the difference against a Cats team that, form woes aside, still have Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron.
On Sunday, not even Hawthorn’s excellent record in Launceston should save them from being the latest team to cop an Adelaide annihilation, while later that day Gold Coast should account for North Melbourne in a game simply born for the 4:40pm twilight slot.
Sandwiched in between is another cracker, with the ladder-leading St Kilda taking on a Carlton side being criticised far more than a team currently in fourth really should be. Having said that, the Saints are flying at the moment, last week’s loss to Collingwood aside, and with the Blues still performing well below the sum of their parts, Ross Lyon’s men are hard to tip against.
To finish off, Anzac Day Tuesday – and if the Pies and Bombers’ rampaging starts to 2023 doesn’t see a crowd of 95,000 flock to the MCG, then nothing will.
I’ve honestly got no idea here: the Pies have no ruckmen but are strong everywhere else, while the Bombers’ biggest strength is with Sam Draper and Andrew Phillips as a ruck-forward combo, which brought even Brodie Grundy to heel last week. Well-drilled defences, exciting forward lines and a plethora of midfield options enough to cover the suspended Taylor Adams and Zach Merrett respectively – it’s been 20 years since we’ve seen two properly good teams play this match.
My tie-breaker is this: since 2005, Essendon have only won on Anzac Day every four years exactly. They won in 2009, 2013, 2017 and 2021. So sorry Bombers fans, but the rules of the universe mean you’ll have to wait until 2025 for your moment in the sun. I don’t make the rules, I just live by them.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Last week: 7
Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Geelong, Adelaide, St Kilda, Gold Coast, Melbourne, Collingwood
What a weekend of footy that was!
Gather Round was a rousing success, the city of Adelaide was thriving and the colours of all 18 teams featured all over the place – it’s alreadyone of the best parts the AFL season.
Tipping was relatively straightforward last week: there wasn’t too much variance overall, with most people floating between seven and nine tips – I typically hugged the bottom end of that range.
It’s another hotly anticipated week coming up, something I feel like we’ll say plenty of times this season. How good is footy!
Fremantle have played two good quarters this season, it seems like, but I’m encouraged by the forward mix and how they’re using space. This is a low-key vital match for both Freo and the Bulldogs on Friday night, to set the standard for the rest of their seasons. I’ll lean the Dockers’ way.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Eagles forfeit before Saturday – all the chat coming out of that part of the world has been ridiculous, and their injury list is now catastrophic. They could lose by a million and Port Adelaide could find themselves in the eight off the back of it.
Another percentage booster should be on the cards for the Lions against GWS, which should help them make up for a couple of early-season stuff-ups. A more consistent effort is important for Brisbane.
What a contest Saturday night’s grand final rematch will give us, in contrast to those ugly early fixtures. John Longmire coaches really well at GMHBA Stadium, but the undercooked defence of the Swans is cause for concern against such a powerful duo up front for Geelong in Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins. That’s probably the difference.
The Hawks just don’t lose in Tasmania, but it seems too early in the season to make any outrageous tips. Adelaide have been as good as expected pre-season, and on paper at least, they should do this easily.
Remember when St Kilda and Carlton used to play those random Monday night games, with strange kits that would draw an average crowd? It’s amazing how far both teams have come. I genuinely have no clue who will win this game; maybe the Saints’ defence comes up trumps against the Blues’ poor ball movement.
Perhaps I’m a little too optimistic on them, but I think the Suns showed some really strong signs against Fremantle and haven’t been as bad as everyone has claimed them to be. I’m expecting a good showing against North to round out Sunday’s games, while the Demons should handle the Tigers with relative ease on Anzac Day eve.
Then: Anzac Day. It always provides us with a good fixture, but rarely do we have both teams playing superbly at the same time.
The first half of Collingwood’s win over St Kilda was truly deplorable viewing, while watching Essendon dismantle Melbourne was incredible. All the same, it just feels like the Magpies play with a level of self-confidence that is flag-worthy. They’ll win.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Last week: 8
Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Sydney, Adelaide, St Kilda, Gold Coast, Melbourne, Collingwood
Eight for me last week, my best for the season – but in an easy week to tip, it wasn’t enough to get me any closer to a decent score at this time of year. So I’m going to be brave again, and pick a couple of roughies for Anzac week.
Let’s start with the easy games. The simplest first – it’s Port Adelaide by how much against an injury-ravaged West Coast on their home turf. Hawthorn’s Tasmania advantage makes picking Adelaide slightly harder, but only slightly – they’re still so, so much better than the Hawks and in rip-roaring form to boot. Melbourne put in a shocker last week to lose to Essendon, and it’s hard to see them being that awful twice in a row on Anzac Eve – plus Max Gawn’s return is bad news for a solo-rucking Samson Ryan.
Then there’s three of what I’d call ’75-25′ games: not certainties, but you’d feel confident with backing the favourites. North Melbourne have crashed back to earth after their 2-0 start, and where two weeks ago they might have been a popular tip to knock over the Suns on the Gold Coast, we should all know better now. GWS could legitimately put up a good fight against a Brisbane outfit that, Gather Round excluded, have been rubbish on the road all season – but it’s just too risky for my blood to tip a Giants team that squeaked past Hawthorn last week.
And on Anzac Day, even with Collingwood’s makeshift ruck team coming up against a red-hot Andrew Phillips and Sam Draper, the Bombers will need to prove last week’s stunning performance against Melbourne wasn’t a fluke before I’m ready to tip them with confidence.
As for the three toughies, I’ve backed St Kilda to beat Carlton on form – the Saints are clearly travelling better than the Blues right now. That being said, I reckon Michael Voss’ team are due a form surge at some point, and on paper they’re better than the Saints even with Jack Steele and Tim Membrey returning, so I’m only tentatively backing the Saints in for a fifth win from six starts.
Now, my roughies. Beginning on Friday night, I’ve backed the Bulldogs in to upset Fremantle – the Dockers didn’t impress me at all in sneaking past Gold Coast, and they have neither the explosive ball movement nor the tall forward marking targets to hit the Dogs where they hurt. If the Bulldogs get a six-goal head start this time around like they did in the elimination final, this Freo isn’t capable of reeling them in.
Then in the grand final rematch, I’m expecting Sydney’s powerful midfield to rip Geelong’s to shreds – the Cats aren’t going well at the moment, and while Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron against a McCartin-less backline spells trouble for the Swans, you can’t kick goals if the ball is up the other end.
(Photo by Brett Hemmings/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
Last week: 7
Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Geelong, Adelaide, St Kilda, Gold Coast, Melbourne, Collingwood
The superb Gather Round is over, and now we’re hurrying back to normality: Fremantle to open the round on a Friday night. Wait, what?
The Dockers are indeed hosting the week’s (typically) marquee match – albeit in a week where the real marquee matches are four days later. Genuine blockbuster or not, we are, at least, going to get a perversely entertaining clash between Freo and the struggling Doggies.
The Dockers looked the best they have all season in the second half of last Friday’s clash, while the Dogs continued their frustrating season with a loss the following day. At home, off the back of a vital win and tentatively carrying last week’s form forward, Freo should win this. Famous last words.
I’ll breeze through all of Saturday. Despite continually valiant efforts, the Eagles have struggled to breakthrough for wins and won’t here in Adelaide against the Power. Excluding Gather Round, Brisbane haven’t won away from the Gabba since last September, but should snap that streak here over the Giants; and in a grand final replay, Geelong should be earning their third win of the season against Sydney at the Cattery. Home ground advantage, baby.
We open Sunday in Tasmania, as Hawthorn host Adelaide. The Crows added another feather to their cap with a superb win over Carlton last week, and while Tassie is the Hawks’ domain, the visitors are very likely to take the four points.
As are, I’m thinking, the Suns, who should bounce back from last week’s disappointment to earn a win over North Melbourne at home to temporarily relieve the pressure on Stuart Dew (if that’s possible).
Meanwhile, Anzac Eve’s clash between the Demons and the Tigers should be a scrappy one between two sides who need a win, with the Dees looking more likely for the points – especially with reports Max Gawn, Jake Lever and Ben Brown should all come back into the fold.
All those aside, we’re left with the two genuinely amazing games of the week. We’ll see Carlton hosting the Saints on Sunday, and this should be a beauty. For a team that’s only lost once from five games this year, the Blues are under a seemingly enormous amount of pressure. A loss here will only magnify that, whereas a win for the Saints will only add legitimacy to their finals claims.
The Blues are very, very tough to go against – this surely isn’t the team of old who’d fall flat here – but add in Jack Steele, and the Saints are looking irresistible.
The team who beat the Saints last week, Collingwood, head into Anzac Day full of confidence. In their path? Essendon, who very nearly match them for that following their famous win over Melbourne.
The Pies are far and away the favourites in this one, but the Bombers are going to be fighting all the way to the siren. No Zach Merrett matches no Taylor Adams in the middle, but the Pies’ incredible record at the MCG – 13 of their last 14 games there have been wins – means I’m leaning towards them.
Jye Amiss of the Dockers. (Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
| Round 6 | Tim | Dem | Cam | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRE vs WB | FRE | FRE | WB | FRE | FRE |
| PA vs WCE | PA | PA | PA | PA | PA |
| GWS vs BL | BL | BL | BL | BL | BL |
| GEE vs SYD | GEE | GEE | SYD | GEE | GEE |
| HAW vs ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE |
| CAR vs STK | STK | STK | STK | STK | STK |
| GCS vs NM | GCS | GCS | GCS | GCS | GCS |
| MEL vs RCH | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL |
| COL vs ESS | COL | COL | COL | COL | COL |
| LAST WEEK | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 |
| ROLLING TOTAL | 22 | 28 | 25 | 28 | 29 |
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