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The bye weeks have come and gone, giving some teams a much-needed break from the high-speed week-in-week-out competition. Errors are mounting and it is taking a toll on Australian teams. But there are players who are standing up and must continue to do so to give their teams a hope at finals footy.
There is some analysis here about the backs and forwards crucial for each team’s success and the shortfalls which must be addressed in the second half of the season.
These players are not necessarily highlight reel makers, rather it is their leadership and experience which is paramount for the teams to which they belong. Leadership and game managers are lacking in Australian SRP teams and it is where a gap is most evident between Australia and New Zealand.
Queensland Reds
Let’s start with one of the most hard done by players omitted from Eddie Jones’ first Wallaby training camp, Liam Wright. The Reds’ co-captain is getting through a lot of work around the field and has a depleted forward pack firing at lineout time.
As evidence of this the Reds have the highest percentage of lineouts won at 90.1%, the Western Force and Melbourne Rebels round out the top three.
Wright is also driving standards around the Reds’ continued ill-discipline; he has conceded no penalties in his last four games. His tackle count is near perfect in those games as well. His critics will say he is too small, not dynamic enough or that they don’t see enough out of him, but his leadership and his execution of the basics is paramount for this young Reds team. He is currently sixth on the lineout leader board having won 31 lineouts. If the Reds want to make the finals in 2023 then his team must follow his lead.
In the backs, no one is executing their position’s core roles better than Jordan Petaia. His running game is consistently devastating, he is fifth for clean breaks in the competition and tenth for defenders beaten at 26. Petaia is stringing back-to-back games together which is adding confidence to his game. A kicking game is also developing nicely. The biggest work on for Petaia remains defensive reads. His defence is the best of the current back three weapons of Mark Nawaqanitawase, Tom Wright and himself, but when overloaded with runners in his channel he lacks patience at times and jams when he should bide his time. Returning cattle upfront for the Reds means Petaia will have a better base to launch from which may be enough to get his team into the top eight finalists.
Melbourne Rebels
The two most influential players on the pitch as far as optics go are captain Brad Wilkin and young-gun Carter Gordon. They bleed for their club every week and they emulate the Rebels’ words: fast, fearless, and resolute. But there is a third member which helps dictate the success of the Rebels’ and that is Reece Hodge.
I stumbled across this realisation when Eddie Jones explained what he liked about Ben Donaldson – “I like what I saw on the end of tour last year.” When rewatching Donaldson’s games it was actually Hodge’s performance against Wales that stood out. He made nine crucial tackles when others missed them and was direct in attack. He kicked tactically, giving Australia a safe exit option. He could also punish Wales when they conceded penalties with his long-range goal-kicking.
Reece Hodge of the Rebels celebrates scoring a try. (Photo by Kelly Defina/Getty Images)
The realisation was timely because he had another great game for the Rebels at inside centre against the Blues before the bye. He made 8/8 tackles, but it was his attack that stood out. He went toe-to-toe with an All Blacks backline, constantly getting over the gain-line and he was instrumental in the first-half success.
Eddie Jones has found his Swiss army knife for the World Cup. While Andrew Kellaway is slowly turning into a genuine utility player, Hodge can and has covered everything from 10-15 at international level.
Hodge’s footwork at the line and his ability to be second playmaker could give the Rebels the extra dimension they need on either side of the ball. Sticking Stacey Ili at 13 would be the perfect centre pairing for the Rebels as well as giving Gordon a reliable foil who is a big body who gets over the line.
For Wilkin, his tackle count each game against some of the best teams in the competition is immense. In the last four games he has missed four tackles from 63. That stat alone is ridiculous but, in the win against the Reds he made 24 tackles and missed one. The title “workhorse” doesn’t even do him justice. The example he sets is a big reason behind the Rebels resurgence.
Kevin Foote. (Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)
Wilkin and head coach Kevin Foote must address two issues which are costing them games. The transition from attack to defence and bench players failing to follow the gameplan and adjust to their exhausted teammates. These two issues are intrinsically linked.
The Rebels bleed metres with every turnover. Their defensive shape once set is great but their inability to scramble and slow opposition ball down is hurting them. It’s not a question of fitness but rather bench players not reading the game and that starts with Foote and his communication with bench players after the halftime break. They have the talent and skill but are losing the mental battle. They are currently sitting at a -66 point differential.
NSW Waratahs
Upfront we have Jed Holloway. The 30-year-old journeyman is a core member of the Waratahs’ and now seemingly the Wallabies’ spine and is vital at lineout time for both teams. He’s sitting second on the SRP lineout leader board. His calling and martialling at set piece time is a skill in short supply in Australia and it has been noticed by Eddie Jones.
The burly lock-blindside hybrid has some of the slickest hands in the game, he’s the link man, consistently getting the players around him into space. He gets through the grunt carries and tackles, but it is the type of tackle he makes which adds so much value to the Tahs’ defence.
Holloway uses his big frame to hold players up in the tackle, disrupting momentum and allowing his team’s defensive line to set. The two or three seconds he buys with almost every tackle contributes directly to the Tahs’ low negative points differential despite sitting low on the table. In the final few weeks of the regularly season Holloway’s leadership at lineout time and rugby nous will be paramount to the success of the Waratahs.
In the backs, it is Lalakai Foketi who must be celebrated. He is one of the bigger insides in Australian rugby and he shows that on either side of the ball. He has only missed two tackles from 22 in his last four games and is regularly carrying more effectively than his opposites. His quick feet at the line is his point of difference, he changes the angle of attack and is a great foil for Donaldson.
(Photo by Aurelien Meunier/Getty Images)
In the second-half of the competition, Foketi must kick-on and promote his leadership. In a backline with an average age of 24-years-old, at 27, Foketi is truly an older head. He is still developing his own game and if he can add a consistent kicking game to his arsenal his stocks will continue to rise.
Western Force
Nothing relieves pressure like securing a turnover penalty when you’re defending your own line or a scrum penalty after being camped in your 22m. For the Force, propping duo Santiago Medrano and Tom Robertson are the most important forwards to the team’s finals hopes. “Throba” Robertson is an adept scrummager whilst Medrano is making a name for himself as a genuine jackal threat. If the Force are to challenge for a top eight berth, then these two will need to be on song and lead by example.
The backline has threats but needs a playmaker to unlock its potential. None of the current 10s of Jake Strachan, Hamish Stewart or Bryce Hegarty have managed to do this. Each 10 brings a different style and skill-set; Stewart is a staunch defender and has an eye for space whilst Hegarty is more of a tactician and gets the team into the right end of the field.
Strachan as a fullback convert is a mix of the two, he has a handy boot and is not afraid to take the line. All have upsides but the Force needs a player-maker to play smart if the team hopes to make the top eight. My money is on Hegarty, he has leadership qualities and has the patience needed for finals footy as displayed on the weekend with their win over the Highlanders at home.
ACT Brumbies
The Brums are a superstar team with a lot of elite talent but it is the players who work hard for little recognition who are the heartbeat of this team. Cadeyrn Neville is the old bull, wreaking havoc for the men from the capital. He is a core member of the team’s engine room, consistently sitting amongst the top tacklers in the team. Neville isn’t as exciting as a young buck like Nick Frost but what he does matters. His work in defensive lineouts is second to none and his work-rate has gone up another level. The pack he has around him is formidable, but it will be in-tight in the finals where we will see Neville stand tallest.
Despite excitement machines like Corey Toole and Tom Wright in the team neither are as pivotal as Len Ikitau. The 25-year-old is the glue of the Brums and Wallabies’ defences and is still adding strings to his bow. His leadership on the international stage in the absence of Samu Kerevi has now trickled down to the Brumbies. He is constantly communicating with his playmakers, calling the moves he sees are on. It is a “follow me” attitude and that is the type of player you want running your defensive shape when you’re defending your own line or launching an attack in the opposition’s 22m.
The players above form the spine of their respective sides. They aren’t the flashiest bunch but their leadership and the nuances in their games are what sets them apart from the rest. If more than just the Brumbies are serious about playing semi-finals footy then every player in those squads must play better. There is a clear demarcation line between the Australian and New Zealand teams. At this stage in the competition the gap is too big for there to be a reversal, but every team should be striving to stagger the competition table.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.