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Opinion
Let’s get the cliches out of the way. You can only defeat the team in front of you. The Broncos do not pick their own draw. If they do, it’s the NRL’s fault for scheduling one of their biggest market teams regularly on a Friday or Saturday night.
All of these things are true. But, going into their stiffest test of the season at Suncorp against South Sydney, it’s worth considering the 7-1 Broncos and whether, for want of a better phrase, they’re all that.
While their start has undeniably been impressive, it’s impossible to look at that 7-1 without taking into account the two major factors that influence it. It has been an absolute rails run thus far.
Their opponents have been soft, their travel light, their turnarounds long. Duly, their injuries have also been light and their home advantage strong.
Compare and contrast to this week’s opponent and things start to look very different. Both the Broncos and the Bunnies have played eight games – so no byes thus far – and while Souths can only boast a 4-3 record, their ‘yeah, but who have they played?’ factor is much stronger.
The strength of their opponents thus far, as calculated by the number of wins on the board from the six teams they have played (they have faced Penrith twice), is 33. For the Broncos, it is a full ten wins fewer at 23. That’s a massive difference in strength of schedule.
Then there’s the location. Souths, by dint of playing at Accor Stadium – aka Sydney’s biggest concert venue – missed three home games to start the year that will have to be made up elsewhere.
Their record is three home games, four away, including trips to Penrith, Cronulla and the Roosters, historically some of the toughest assignments in the league.
The Broncos went Penrith in week one, the crapshootiest game of the year, followed by… nothing.
They’ve played the Dolphins away, which is, of course, actually at home, plus the Titans away, which might as well have been at home given the distribution of supporters in South East Queensland, plus a neutral venue game against Parramatta last weekend in Darwin.
Home advantage is a statistically-proven phenomenon in all sports, and home teams win at about 10% above average. All that plays into Brisbane’s strong start.
Then there’s the turnarounds. Brisbane have had two six dayers, five seven dayers and two eight day turnarounds, for a total of 63 turnaround days by kick off on Friday night.
Souths, on the other hand, have had a five-dayer, two six dayers, two seven dayers and three eight dayers for a grand total of 55 turnaround days, or more than a whole week less than the Broncos.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
This is a massive advantage. Being able to set a schedule and not alter it, as is the case when you play Saturday to Saturday or Friday to Saturday, does wonders for routine.
They’re yet to have a single Thursday or Sunday game, and indeed, don’t have a single five day turnaround until the last round of the regular season.
That plays out in injuries. 15 of the 20 players they have used this year have played at least seven of their eight games and Jesse Arthars has played six. That’s an incredibly consistent team, given incredible stability by scheduling. Only Corey Oates has got injured and nobody, until this week, has been suspended.
Again, compare and contrast to Souths. They’ve used 23 players, and only 12 have been on deck for at least six of them, including headline injuries in the forwards to Tevita Tatola, Jai Arrow, Shaq Mitchell and Keaon Koloamatangi.
Across eight rounds so far, they are yet to name the same starting front row twice and Tom Burgess is the only big man to play every game, and that’s before you get to the three times they have lost a middle in the opening stages.
So are the Broncos fools gold? That underlying metrics would suggest that they aren’t lucky on the field, with the data saying that they are running a little hot, but not unsustainably so.
They’re about half a win up on where their stats say they should be, but after eight completed rounds, that’s not much. One could comfortably say that they’re sustainably good and worth first place on the performances that they have put in.
They’re top for tries scored and second top for metres made while also being among the best defensively in terms of metres conceded and tries conceded.
They’re also incredibly efficient, outperforming their number of line breaks in terms of tries scored, one of only two sides in the comp (with Manly) to do so. All these things are very positive for Kevin Walters and Brisbane.
But, of course, those numbers are based on who they have played. It’s impossible to overlook the less tangible, but still highly relevant structural advantages the Broncos have enjoyed in terms of draw and scheduling.
This week, they come up against their toughest test yet in the Bunnies, with their first setback too, with suspensions to Ezra Mam and Payne Haas and another injury to Corey Oates, while Souths will be able to field close to their best pack for the first time all year.
Last week, one could have said the same going into their clash with Parramatta in Darwin, and they passed it with flying colours. If they do that again against a Rabbitohs side off the back of a statement win over the Panthers, then we might be ready to call them the real deal.