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After six rounds, we’ve usually seen enough to basically know the lay of the land on the AFL scene.
The new contenders – greetings, Adelaide and St Kilda – have announced themselves, while the sliders – commiserations, Fremantle and Richmond – are also beyond the mere ‘sluggish start’ territory. It all adds up to far smoother waters for us tippers – that is, unless you’re like me and fighting from a looong way behind.
Not even an 8 last week was enough for me to close the gap in our experts’ competition, and it continued my 0-from-6 streak of tipping involving the Western Bulldogs – the team I support. These truly are grim times.
With Round 7 upon us, this doesn’t seem like a good week to stick your next out and risk a few roughies… or is it? Let’s find out.
Last week: 8
St Kilda, Brisbane, Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Carlton, Geelong, Richmond, Adelaide
Let’s not beat around the bush – 30 after six rounds is just an abysmal effort from me. It’s fast looking like being one of THOSE years every tipster has unless I can turn it around quick smart.
Round 7 is an interesting case, though – it begins and ends with a pair of rolled gold blockbusters, and all but one game in between promises to be utter slop. We’ll get to those three games later, but first, the slop.
At the start of the year Fremantle’s trip to Brisbane would have loomed as a danger game for the Lions – not anymore, with the Dockers looking a long way off the side they were in 2022. More interesting is the Sydney Derby – remember when it was the Battle of the Bridge? – in which GWS rarely fail to put up a good fight, but even with the Swans desperately short of defenders and Tom Green back for the Giants, it’s a risky business backing against a team as proud as the Bloods heading in off a loss as embarrassing as last week’s. They’ll be back.
In scenes befitting a Western Bulldogs icon, Marcus Bontempelli will notch his 200th game in… the Saturday arvo graveyard slot. I’m confident enough in the Dogs being too good for Hawthorn that I’m not even picking against them as an insurance policy like I (claim I) did last week.
Saturday night sees about as grim a pair of games as you could ask for – fans of channel-surfing will be disappointed. The bubble has well and truly burst at North Melbourne, and I can see Melbourne racking up a dominant win with a minimum of effort; while a Carlton side getting smashed pillar to post in the media this week is bad news for West Coast – a good team playing them with a point to prove could well mean a bloodbath.
Richmond versus Gold Coast is interesting in the same way as I imagine watching Love Island must be to its viewer base – ghastly and yet un-turn-offable. In all seriousness, it will be interesting to see if Richmond are just a mediocre team having battled through a bad fixture run with a significant injury list, or whether they’re a proper bottom-four side. Either way, the loser is going to be the big story out of this one.
On to the gems: St Kilda get their taste of proper limelight on Friday night against Port Adelaide; get the job done here, preferably commandingly, and the footy world won’t be able to ignore them anymore. It’s a bad week for the Power to have had a run of misfortune to their talls similar to the Springfield Isotopes’ celebrity line-up (Charlie Dixon is Darryl Strawberry in this analogy), and based on that and the Saints’ dominance under the Marvel Stadium roof this season, I’m backing the ladder-leaders to go 6-1.
Starting us off on Sunday is another cracker – or at least, we hope it will be. The combination of a five-day break and a gut-wrenching loss to Collingwood makes Essendon somewhat vulnerable, and as we saw against Sydney, Geelong are still merciless enough to rip apart a carcass like hyenas on the savannah. To be honest, under the circumstances an honourable loss under adversity would be an impressive effort for the Dons, and a win as seismic as if they’d remembered to rock up for the last quarter on Anzac Day.
But match of the round comes last – nice fixturing again, AFL – with Adelaide hosting Collingwood at their home fortress. This is honestly one of the year’s toughest games to tip – the Magpies have been electric this season but their one loss came interstate to a non-Victorian team on their own deck in Brisbane, and the Crows have been imperious at the Adelaide Oval all season.
This is a genuine coin-flip, and every instinct is screaming at me to back in home ground advantage and the Crows – so I’m playing a dangerous game and locking them in for their biggest win yet.
In case you haven’t been paying attention to my tipping this year, this is a sure fire sign you should put your house and all your worldly possessions on a Collingwood win – nothing in this world could be surer.
James Sicily of the Hawks and Marcus Bontempelli of the Bulldogs wrestle. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Last week: 8
St Kilda, Brisbane, Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Carlton, Geelong, Gold Coast, Collingwood
Generally, it’s about this time of the season where tipping starts to fall apart and all our hopes and dreams are crushed.
On that positive note, it’s time to look at a rare round where there are more games at Marvel than the MCG due to Anzac Day, making for some weird optics.
It kicks off with the unstoppable Saints doing the job on a Power team that keeps ticking boxes. I’m not sure we should place a heap of value on Port’s current streak – a win here would completely change opinions on them. But they’ve been fine, it’s just that St Kilda have been extraordinary.
A five-game Saturday, huzzah! A day to sit back on the couch, find as many devices as possible to deal with the crossovers and enjoy the spectacles. To start, the Dockers have been so disappointing, it’s almost heartbreaking given the expectations on them heading into the season. I can’t, in good conscience, tip them again, even if Brisbane are just getting by.
How do we rate the Swans? The post-game reaction after their humiliating loss to Geelong was typical – immediate hot takes are always predictably over the top – but overall, they’re seemingly a mediocre team struggling without a defence. Yet with a few players expected to return, dealing with a bottom-four quality team in GWS missing their best player in Sam Taylor should hardly be an issue. Sydney’s definitely one to watch over the coming weeks.
In the Bont’s 200th game celebration, he might get all six votes against Hawthorn. The Bulldogs are in winning form at the moment, and it’s taken the pressure off the coach, not that it necessarily should.
Melbourne by a billion over North? Clarko has his ways of likely limiting the damage, but this should be a shellacking. In the other Saturday night game, the Eagles have been plucky enough to prevent being completely blown apart in recent weeks, but that might change here. On paper, Carlton should win this by 12 goals, but their stifled ball movement is real cause for concern. They’ll win, but this is more a game to watch for tactics, rather than the final score.
Is this where the Bombers start to fall apart? The defence is a bit undermanned and they couldn’t quite run out the last game they played. That isn’t a great combo when coming up against the Cats who’ve found their straps.
In the other Sunday game, the Tigers are horrible at Marvel Stadium. But the Suns are horrible at Marvel Stadium too. They’ve played each other once at the venue – Gold Coast won by 10 behinds in 2021, and it was ugly. It’s hard to imagine the Tigers staying in the bottom four, but time to try and use Tim’s reverse psychology trick and tip against my team.
Finally, the Magpies have won their last six at Adelaide Oval and their last six against the Crows. The days off don’t worry me with these two teams – Collingwood’s the best side going around.
Jack Ginnivan. (Photo by Mark Brake/Getty Images)
Last week: 8
St Kilda, Brisbane, GWS, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Carlton, Geelong, Gold Coast, Collingwood.
I thought I was a good chance of the year’s first perfect 9 when I successfully tipped the Bulldogs over Freo last week – only for Sydney to make a 93-point embarrassment of tipping them in the grand final rematch.
Let’s start this week with the two upsets I’m tipping – the Swans’ ghastly performance against Geelong has well and truly turned me off them, and I reckon GWS could well and truly cause an upset in the Sydney Derby. It’s a massive game for Jesse Hogan against an utterly depleted Swans’ backline, and with Tom Green back the Giants should have the edge in the midfield. If they can find a way to cover for Sam Taylor in defence, they’re shoo-ins.
I’ve also lost faith in my Tigers enough to do the impossible, and tip Gold Coast to knock them over on Sunday. Part of me is hoping this’ll be a reverse-jinx, but even without Touk Miller the Suns’ midfield is stronger than Richmond’s, and a power-packed forward line is well and truly good enough to make a mess of a very disorganised Tigers back six.
Other than that, this week is pretty by the numbers. Port Adelaide should put up a fight against St Kilda on Friday night, but you couldn’t tip against the red-hot Saints on their own deck. Saturday could make for one-sided viewing outside Sydney – Brisbane will rip Freo a new one at the Gabba, the Bulldogs couldn’t possibly lose to Hawthorn for Marcus Bontempelli’s 200th, Melbourne by a million over the flagging North Melbourne, and Carlton by a million and one over West Coast, who might have more players on their injury list than off it soon.
Coming to Sunday, and I’ve backed the favourites in what should be two crackers on either side of the Tigers and Suns. Essendon have been dealt a bum hand by the fixturing gods – having to play a back-in-business Geelong off a five-day break and one of their most dispiriting losses in recent memory. Even a much-improved Bombers surely can’t deal with that double-whammy.
Finishing us off is Adelaide and Collingwood. The Pies historically travel superbly to South Australia – they’re the only team aside from the Crows and Power with a winning record in the state – and despite Adelaide’s terrific start to the season, their midfield is vulnerable enough for the Pies to take advantage. Plus, there’s the fact that no lead is safe from the Magpies at the moment.
(Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)
Last week: 8
St Kilda, Brisbane, Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Carlton, Geelong, Richmond, Adelaide
We’re a quarter of the way through the season, and I’m still as confounded as I’ve ever been. Who is good? Who is bad? And will Collingwood ever stop getting away with pulling off impossible wins?
We start our seventh weekend of footy on Friday night with one team that is confusingly good, St Kilda, coming up against one that has finely navigated a tricky start in fine form, Port Adelaide. Unfortunately for the Power, the Eagles’ injury curse appears to have been contagious, and Ken Hinkley will need to make some changes – perhaps the only good news is Charlie Dixon should be available to add some offensive spark. But no matter what the Power do, the Saints are irresistibly good, and should stay top of the table.
Moving to Saturday, and the easiest game of the day to tip is the first one: at the Gabba, an awful Freo are no chance of beating the Lions – even with as many personnel changes Justin Longmuir is brave enough to make. The rest of Saturday is relatively easy to tip, too: the battle of the New South Welshmen is next, and while the Giants have been alright the past couple of weeks, you’d expect the Swans to be desperate for a win and come out with a vengeance.
The Hawks, too, have been rather good despite two consecutive heartbreaking losses, but are unlikely to dislodge the Bulldogs – though out of all the games this week, this has the most upset potential. Saturday night should see Melbourne easily earn the four points against the Kangaroos, who have faded from their encouraging early form, and a lacklustre Carlton still should – and I stress should – do enough over in Perth to get over the scrappy Eagles.
Sunday’s Richmond v Gold Coast match is sandwiched between two genuine blockbusters, meaning the Tigers are likely to quietly beat the Touk Miller-less Suns without a lot of fuss. Much more excitingly, the Bombers are likely to push the premiers all the way – as Tuesday’s efforts against the Pies proved, they’re plenty capable of doing so. But Geelong are finding form, and as good as the Dons have been, this is the Cats’ to lose.
And finally, we have the Crows hosting the Nick Daicos Football Club. In all seriousness, this should be a beauty – and herein lies my bold call: Adelaide, at home, will pull off a phenomenal upset.
Maybe Collingwood, just this once, won’t get away with it.
Michael Walters of the Dockers. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
| Round 7 | Tim | Dem | Cam | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STK vs PA | STK | STK | STK | STK | STK |
| BL vs FRE | BL | BL | BL | BL | BL |
| SYD vs GWS | SYD | SYD | GWS | SYD | SYD |
| WB vs HAW | WB | WB | WB | WB | WB |
| MEL vs NM | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL |
| WCE vs CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR |
| ESS vs GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE |
| RCH vs GCS | RCH | GCS | GCS | RCH | RCH |
| ADE vs COL | ADE | COL | COL | ADE | COL |
| LAST WEEK | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| ROLLING TOTAL | 30 | 36 | 33 | 36 | 37 |
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