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The last time the Queensland Reds won in New Zealand, Quade Cooper scored 16 points, Bundee Aki and Gareth Anscombe were Chiefs, and Steve Walsh was the referee. 2013 was a different time.
On this site just a month ago, I highlighted the areas where the Reds were lacking this season; namely their struggles in the final quarter and their scrum. Yet, the Reds beat the Chiefs with a perfect scrum on their own ball and in a match with a frankly astonishing 47 minutes of ball in play time. That should have been the Reds’ kryptonite, so how did they win?
Let’s be clear, we would expect the Chiefs to not just win but dominate the Reds based on the stats. The Chiefs had six more minutes with the ball than the Reds, they carried 44 times more, they carried for over 500m more, and they had more quick ball than the Aussie side.
The first way the Reds won was to employ a limited game plan which limited how exposed they were to turning the ball over. The Chiefs have scored more tries from turnover than any other side in Super Rugby. This was a huge area of concern for the Reds. If they threw the ball around and got isolated, this could have been a complete annihilation. Instead, the Reds turned over just one of their 102 rucks. In fact, the Reds actually won more turnovers (4) than they conceded.
When we talk about a limited game plan, we are talking about teams who lean more towards a conservative style of play. That typically means staying tight to the ruck and kicking away possession further up the pitch. Across the league, teams on average kick once every 5.3 carries. The Reds kick every 4.7 carries on average. Against the Chiefs they kicked once every 3.7 carries. That decision helped them to limit how many turnovers the Chiefs could make but also turned territory in their favour. The Chiefs had significantly more possession, and they also had more territory, but they had less territory than their possession would suggest.
The other part of the limited game plan was the tight carrying. The Reds decided to shift the ball wide incredibly infrequently. In fact, they moved the ball wide just a handful of times, six times less than the Chiefs. You can see in the clip above how that doesn’t have to lead to boring rugby. Teams can attack tight and generate quick ruck speed. That can lead to exciting periods of play where it looks like a team is unstoppable. In this clip, the Reds did eventually score a try 11 phases later.
The Reds celebrate beating the Chiefs. (Photo by Andy Jackson/Getty Images)
This was a smart tactical ploy by Brad Thorn. Few expected the Reds to win in New Zealand so few would have blamed him for going for it but coming up short. Instead, he and his analysis team identified the threat and tried to navigate around it.
The downside to kicking a lot, if your opponents don’t return the favour, is that you end up defending a lot. The Reds made 220 tackles and missed a further 23 more. Significantly more than the Chiefs. As I spoke about in a previous article, the Reds have been poor in the final quarter of matches. My thoughts were that this was linked more to their mental application rather than tiredness. However, there likely was an element of fatigue playing a part in their dwindling final quarter. Now, the Reds did lose the final quarter against the Chiefs 7-3, but that was hugely better than they might have feared given the amount of defending they needed to do.
One of the key success areas for the Reds was the 22. The Chiefs entered the Reds’ red zone almost twice as frequently, but they left with fewer tries. The Chiefs were exceptionally wasteful with their chances as they coughed up possession time after time after time in that key area of the pitch. The Reds did ride their luck, but they also made that area incredibly inhospitable.
Finally, the Reds used their bench well. Previously, Italy have played around with the idea of starting your front row and then changing them in one go before the half. The idea is to start your second-string front row who, knowing they only need to go until the half, can empty the tank. Then your usual starters can come in against a tiring front row. The Reds held up on their own scrum, something they have really struggled to do this season. They conceded two scrum penalties on the Chiefs’ scrum, but this was a much-improved scrummaging effort from the Aussies.
The Reds showed great tactical ingenuity to come up with a different game plan that gave them a head start against a very strong Chiefs side. It’s a huge feather in Brad Thorn’s cap even as he moves on at the end of the season. Too often we see teams go to opponents who should beat them and fail to employ any tactical surprises at all. The underdog plays how they would usually play, lose, and nobody thinks much about it. In this case though, the Reds really went for it, spotted a weakness, and exploited it. Who knows, maybe this could be a springboard for a more confident Reds side as the season progresses?
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.