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He’s made for Origin. He’d not let anybody down. He’s earned his shot.
We’ve had our fair share of smokeys and bolters, debated endlessly on the merits of stick-and-pick over wholesale change and, at the end of the weekend, we’ll finally geet some resolution as first Brad Fittler, then Billy Slater, pick their teams.
Origin is about picking the best team rather than the best players, and 99% of the discussion about who should or shouldn’t get picked is hot air. Let’s try to take that out of it: let’s look at the cold hard facts.
Despite State of Origin existing in a plane above statistics – there is, to date, no xCattledog that can be called upon – it doesn’t mean that we can’t read the data and discern where speculation ends and reality begins.
To that end, let’s solve the major selection issues that each side are facing, and come up with the nerd’s pick for Origin 2023. We’ll not be doing a 1-17 for each team, because most of it is obvious or pointless.
Yes, you might feel smart quoting how many metres Dylan Edwards makes, but he’s not getting picked for New South Wales unless James Tedesco keels over.
Instead, we’ll run the numbers on the runners in the context that the coaches will be looking at and see who wins out. Strap in – here’s part 1, the Blues.
Tom Trbojevic. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
There’s been a widespread idea that Tom Trbojevic should be overlooked, and the cold hard numbers are here to tell you that it’s a load of old rubbish.
Even at whatever fitness level you think he currently has, Turbo is still absolutely elite: the fourth best fullback if you want to judge off metres, the second best if you want to judge off creativity, the third best if you want involvements in tries.
Dylan Edwards is the only serious other option, and he’s not going to play fullback as long as Tedesco is bothered, and Turbo is better across the board. Stick him in the centres and be done with it.
With that comes Campbell Graham, who certainly should play, with the only question regarding where.
It’s hard to make much of a data-based judgement given that one plays centre, one plays fullback and neither play on the wing, but the basic metrics of the centre role suggest Graham would be a better fit outside of Turbo.
More tries and line break potential, plus fewer errors for Stretch, more creativity and ball-playing from Turbo.
The other side is fairly stitched up – Brian To’o remains the king – and Josh Addo-Carr’s injury probably puts him out of Game 1.
There’s an argument to play Turbo inside To’o on the left, where he does his best work with Reuben Garrick for Manly, and move Latrell towards his clubmate Graham on the right, but there’s no numbers for that, just pure vibes.
Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai. (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
OK, let’s get to the big one: Jarome Luai v Nicho Hynes for the NSW five eighth role. Despite previous comments on Ponga v Walsh, we can look at the numbers here because the way that Hynes plays 7 is close enough to the way that Luai plays 6.
It’s bad news for the incumbent, because unsurprisingly, Nicho brains him. The Sharks halfback has more of basically everything, and even when you equate for the greater amount of ball he gets – 70 touches per game as opposed to 40 for Luai – it’s not close.
Hynes actually runs more than Luai, despite the assumption that 6 would run more than 7, and can offer a second kicking option that the Samoan international doesn’t get close to.
Realistically, the only way in which Luai is performing better than Hynes is making line breaks, and even then, he’s barely better.
Crucially, the Panthers have relegated their five eighth to almost solely playing on one side of the field, and while his numbers for running are up, when he doesn’t run he’s often shovelled the ball along the line rather than engaging and finding shape.
Unless Fittler is absolutely beholden to maintaining the Panthers-lite tactics that he played in 2022, Nicho is the standout candidate. Cohesion with Nathan Cleary and Isaah Yeo – and Api Koroisau, if he is picked – is the only thing keeping Luai in the team.
Damien Cook of the Blues offloads the ball during game two of the 2021 State of Origin series. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
That neatly brings us onto Damien Cook v Api Koroisau for the hooking role. This is a particularly nebulous one to determine, and for two reasons.
Firstly, one players for the side currently top of the NRL and the other for the side at the bottom, so there are vastly differing circumstances at play.
Secondly, the best of Cook’s game is exploiting the play in front of him as he sees it, whereas where Api thrives is in deception, something very hard to use numbers to judge.
Regardless, here are some insights. Api, despite playing in a much worse outfit, is still maintaining his threat around the ruck – if only someone would tell his teammates – and darting out regularly. Cook is far happier to dish, and only goes when the opportunity arises.
Cook dominates in attacking metrics, which are a little noisy given the disparity in the other 12 blokes on the field, but does manage to make more line break assists from the fewer opportunities he gets.
Api’s tackling is way down, missing double the number that the Souths’ rake does, with Cook making almost ten more tackles a game in a team with much higher possession. He’s still the among best in the league at kick pressures, too, an underrated aspect of hooker play.
The numbers, at least, edge towards a recall for the beach sprinter.
Jake Trbojevic. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
The forward rotation for NSW is absolutely anyone’s guess, but let’s set some ground rules. Payne Haas and Junior Paulo are in and Jake Trbojevic, if he gets through his weekend, is too.
It’s hard to imagine Fittler not picking Jurbo, and for what it’s worth, he should too. While Jake does run the ball with all the threat of a blancmange, he remains a tackling machine.
In the back row, you get Isaah Yeo at 13 and that means Cam Murray at 11. Fun as it would be to go into the weeds on whether that mightn’t be better the other way around, it won’t be so we leave it alone.
Beyond that, let’s get going. Angus Crichton and Liam Martin only recently returning to action.
Should Crichton not make it, his position as a specialist defender on an edge should undoubtedly go to Nat Butcher.
Rubbish as the Roosters have been, Butcher is currently the best tackler in the NRL with 44 per game at 93% efficiency. It’s not close.
It’s a tactical question as much as anything. Crichton was picked for his defence in the past, and should Fittler go for that kind of player again, it has to be Butcher.
However, if he decides to favour strike, and Liam Martin is overlooked, then Haumole Olakau’atu is the leading candidate.
His defensive stats are pretty poor – bottom third of all NRL backrowers both volume and efficiency – but he makes that up in attack. Schmole tops the league metres per run and tackle breaks per carry.
Hudson Young would be another major option, but doesn’t match Haumole for attacking upside, with few tries, assists, runs, tackle breaks, metres and post-contact metres. His defence isn’t much better, either, with a worse efficiency than Olakau’atu.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
There’s another discussion over the fourth middle, with Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Spencer Leniu injured and a whole host of alright, but not brilliant options.
It’s almost a tradition at this point to mention that David Klemmer is still the best big man option, with all the legspeed, post-contact and offloads of either Saifiti brother while also playing the ball faster than either. He won’t get picked, but he should.
Tevita Tatola is seen as the next cab off the rank there but it might be more sensible to look at his teammate, Hame Sele.
The pair are almost statistical clones, barely distinguishable on numbers alone, but Tatola has made his off a much smaller sample size given his extensive injury issues in 2023.
If Fittler goes small-ball, Ryan Matterson should be a front-runner, given he covers middle and edge and played last year.
The stuff that got him picked in 2022 hasn’t dropped away, with his metres, tackling and, particularly, offloading still at the upper echelons for his position.
Dale Finucane would be another option, but doesn’t quite match Matterson defensively or with ball-playing. Fittler would be picking on intangibles if he were to go for the Sharks veteran.
There’s been talk of Tyson Frizell, but again, that would be picking on experience and not on performances in 2023. While the Knights forward is having one of his best years in a long time, he’s not close to Matterson for output.
Indeed, the only option who is near Matterson would be Dragons lock Jack de Belin. Though his club is a bin fire, he has quietly compiled a decent output of nuts and bolts forward things, like metres, quick rucks and defensive efficiency, with the nice-to-haves of ball-playing and creativity.
Of course, there are a thousand other reasons not to pick him, but the numbers are blind to them.