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On Monday evening, Damien Hardwick’s time at Richmond, by his own hand, wrapped up.
The prospect of the triple-premiership coach calling it quits was always a real possibility: the Tigers, though they’ve shown glimpses of their old selves, have been a fading superpower since 2021.
After 13 and a half seasons at Punt Road, a collegial parting of ways could refresh the club and Hardwick himself – and like it was for Alastair Clarkson come the end of his time at Hawthorn, there will be no shortage of suitors.
Consider this a mid-season temperature check.
The coaching landscape shifts quickly, as Monday night demonstrated. Like tectonic plates beneath a volcano, the rumbling starts about this time of the year, and by the end of the season there is often an explosion.
Last year, it was Brett Ratten who was dumped once St Kilda was sure Ross Lyon was gettable. Ben Rutten was gone as soon as Essendon made a play for Clarkson and Ken Hinkley, and earlier on it was Leon Cameron and David Noble who fell.
All sackings – or resignations – are slightly different, but most clubs try to avoid their senior coach remaining unsigned into their contract year. The pressure mounts quickly: Alan Richardson (2019), Nathan Buckley (2021), Cameron (2022) and now Hinkley (2023) are rarities.
Across the last decade, coaches invariably get the axe or extended before entering the last year of their deals. Sometimes even receiving a new contract does not help – just ask Ratten.
This modern phenomenon, where clubs are spooked by contract-year-coaches, is why the next four months are critical for almost half of the 18 teams in the AFL.
With Hardwick’s departure, there are now seven coaches who are contracted until the end of 2024. On a job security scale, these coaches can be split into four distinct groups of two.
Master of his own domain
Chris Scott is a unicorn in the AFL coaching world – now that Hardwick has resigned, he is the only coach with the luxury of multiple premierships to solidify his position at the helm of Geelong.
Scott often talks about how time-consuming being a senior coach is, and by the end of 2024 only he will know whether he has the capacity to keep grinding after 14 seasons.
Scott, like Hardwick, would be an attractive proposition for a rival club.
Damien Hardwick (Photo by Graham Denholm/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Jury is out
Fremantle’s Justin Longmuir and Adelaide’s Matthew Nicks have coached almost the exact same number of games (Longmuir has one extra due to Fremantle’s finals run last year and each missed games during 2022 due to COVID), and both come out of contract at the end of next year.
While they are yet to do enough to warrant an early extension, both coaches have built their clubs into stronger positions than when they were appointed.
Adelaide’s list management strategy meant Nicks has come from further back than Longmuir, whose Dockers won an elimination final last year and have only just started to find form in 2023.
Unlike Scott and Hardwick, this pair are not as attractive to other buyers, so there should be no urgency to lock them in unless the Crows or Dockers are sure they are the men for the long-term.
Of course, leaving them without extensions tightens the pressure valve in 2024.
Finals berths should make summer negotiations relatively straightforward for Longmuir and Nicks. Anything less – especially for the Dockers – means they will likely enter 2024 with uncertainty hovering above their heads.
Justin Longmuir. (Photo by Jono Searle/AFL Photos/via Getty Images )
Not going anywhere
Craig McRae and Simon Goodwin are same-same but different to Hardwick and Scott.
The Collingwood and Melbourne coaches would attract interest from elsewhere on the open market, but don’t have the length of tenure to suggest a shift would be mutually beneficial.
Indeed, Goodwin has more to achieve with his Demons in this current window, while McRae will surely extend beyond 2024 well before this year is out.
Both are entrenched at their current clubs, and with plenty to do.
Collingwood coach Craig McRae. (Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
On thin ice
Stuart Dew and Michael Voss would know their futures are murky at best.
Neither is governing a team down at the bottom of the ladder, but elevated expectations leave little wriggle room for Carlton or Gold Coast in 2023.
Blues fans are impatient after a decade without finals, and so they should be. A full-scale rebuild began in 2015, and so far it has netted the same number of top-eight finishes as Gold Coast – zero.
Dew is constantly under pressure and has spoken of this reality several times. A Hardwick, Chris Scott or Hinkley type would satisfy the AFL in Queensland, but it’s too soon to make this call now. Dew is coaching a highly-talented team which is improving, but not at the rate they should have.
Similarly, Carlton’s list management team have handed Voss a finals outfit on a platter, complete with a Brownlow Medallist in Patrick Cripps and two Coleman Medallists in Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow, plus Sam Walsh and Jacob Weitering.
Still, neither the Suns nor Blues look any better than mediocre; and this is why the next 14 weeks loom large for Voss and Dew. Like with Clarkson, there will be several clubs now pondering whether their teams would be better off with Hardwick at the helm in 2024 or maybe even 2025.
Go on a run, and a summer re-signing could be on the cards. Fail, and they may not even make it that far. It’s that delicate.
Michael Voss addresses the Blues (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
The next domino
We won’t know until August whether Port Adelaide believes Hinkley deserves a new contract.
If the answer is no – and not even a preliminary final berth may be enough to save him – then can Port convince 2004 premiership player Hardwick to come to Alberton? With Hinkley out of contract, Hardwick now a free agent and the club connection from the Power’s finest day in the AFL to date, the pieces all fit.
Or would Hinkley read the room, take Mark Evans’ call, and force the Suns to make a call on Dew?
It was only two years ago that Collingwood’s sacking of Nathan Buckley forced Hawthorn to accelerate its discussions around Alastair Clarkson, which led to an early departure for the four-time premiership coach as Sam Mitchell was guaranteed the role.
The other possibility is that West Coast eats into its soft cap and sacks Adam Simpson.
Simpson is contracted to coach a further 59 games for the Eagles and led the club to a flag five years ago, but his position has been questioned by club great Glen Jakovich.
West Coast is not a club which relies on cash from the AFL, so protections around Simpson’s tenure would be longer than the six months afforded to many other coaches. But with the soft cap sitting at $7 million, it would take a brave club to spend almost $2 million of this on an employee who is no longer there.
Of course, the Eagles could pay the tax… or Simpson could reach an amicable agreement and seek a job elsewhere. It’s a weird world when a coach who has more than two years still to run on a deal is both sackable AND has currency on the open market.
Adam Simpson chats with Jayden Hunt. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Either way, he must decide – much like Hardwick – whether he has the will to stick fat through a rebuild.
Stability in the AFL coaching world is only ever a fleeting term. 2024 looms large, for a multitude of reasons. on a variety of fronts.
AFL Coach Contracts
Resigned
Damien Hardwick (Richmond)
End of 2023
Ken Hinkley (Port Adelaide)
End of 2024
Matthew Nicks (Adelaide), Michael Voss (Brisbane), Craig McRae (Collingwood), Justin Longmuir (Fremantle), Chris Scott (Geelong), Stuart Dew (Gold Coast), Simon Goodwin (Melbourne)
End of 2025
Chris Fagan (Brisbane), Adam Kingsley (GWS), Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn), John Longmire (Sydney), Adam Simpson (West Coast), Luke Beveridge (Western Bulldogs)
End of 2026
Brad Scott (Essendon), Ross Lyon (St Kilda)
End of 2027
Alastair Clarkson (North Melbourne)
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