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Eddie Jones’ debut with Australia is coming up. His first game in charge will be on July 8 against South Africa in Pretoria.
We have talked a lot in recent weeks about who Jones might include in his team, but little about how they will play. In this article, we will look at the options available to Jones and speculate about which might suit the Wallabies the best.
This is the playing style that the majority think Jones will employ. It involves striking hard when you have the ball and an opportunity arises, but otherwise giving up possession when there isn’t a clear point scoring opportunity. In general, teams playing this way will be defending for most of the game.
There is often a misunderstanding about the specifics of this playing style. It’s not just playing without the ball, although that is part of it. Instead, it’s playing without the ball but with the capability to score when you receive possession and force your opponents into errors.
A good example would be France in the international game. They kick a huge amount and defend generally more than they attack. Leicester Tigers in England won the Premiership last season with an extreme example of this game plan. Both Leicester and France were successful because they could score tries when they did have possession and they applied huge pressure to their opponents when they had the ball.
Wallabies coach Eddie Jones during an Australia Wallabies training camp at Sanctuary Cove on April 18, 2023 in Gold Coast, Australia. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
If Jones is looking for an Australian team to use as a model, he could do worse than the Brumbies. The Brumbies are the best Australian team, currently sitting in third place in the league. They rank second last by possession however, behind only the Waratahs. They have conceded the fewest penalties in the league and scored the second most tries per game in the league.
Where the Brumbies under-perform is with their ability to strike when they do have the ball. On average in Super Rugby, teams will either beat a defender or get a clean break every fourth carry. Every team in Super Rugby sits somewhere between three and five carries for this stat. The Brumbies sit below the average though and require more carries before they get their reward. That isn’t great news when they have so little possession.
If Australia did go for this approach, they would want a significantly better return for the relatively few carries they would get. They would also want a bomb proof lineout to use as an attacking platform when they won penalties and could kick into the opposition 22.
This attacking style had gone massively out of fashion in recent years. Teams were winning with very little of the ball and it seemed like attack coaches were planning for their teams to give possession up as quickly as possible rather than hoard it. Of course, fashion is cyclical, and the recent most successful teams have been possession hoarders. Ireland won the Six Nations with this style of attack, La Rochelle won the Heineken Cup like this, and Toulouse currently sit top of the Top14. In Super Rugby, the Blues and Crusaders have both made the most carries and sit in the top four in the league.
Teams with this style will generally take a lot of carries before finding a successful one and will retain a higher percentage of their rucks. The goal is to squeeze their opponents by forcing them to defend carry after carry. Not only does this tire them in defence, it also blunts their attack when they do get the ball.
Teams with this approach will rarely have a maverick flyhalf. They want someone who is a steady pair of hands who won’t give up possession easily. Finding the balance between conservatively holding onto possession and ensuring that you do occasionally make progress with the ball can be hard. For a long time, the Exeter Chiefs in the UK were successful with this style. However, this season they failed to make the playoffs and that was in large part due to their game plan becoming too conservative. They could hold onto possession, but couldn’t ever make progress. Eventually, they just ran out of opportunities.
This is the kind of rugby people think they want their team to play, but it almost never works. Bristol Bears in the UK have dabbled with a less extreme variant of this and Fijian Drua currently use it in Super Rugby. Drua have the third highest carry metres, the fewest kicks, and the fifth fewest carries per defender or clean break. But, they sit in tenth place in the league.
Teams like this often rack up gaudy stats because they make plenty of easy metres from deep in their own half. However, aside from a few highlight reel worthy length of the field tries, these attacks normally end up with a turnover. It’s not to say it never works, but the level of risk is normally completely at odds with what modern coaches are willing to accept.
When he was coaching England Jones chopped and changed his attacking philosophy. Towards the end, it was centred much more on being conservative and not getting caught in possession. That was hated by a lot of England fans who wanted to see their team cut loose, even when they were ultimately successful with the restricted game plan. With Japan, Jones had them playing an up tempo high-possession game where he tried to tire out the opposition with his uber-fit squad.
Australia have the personnel to go down any of these routes but I actually think Jones might play more of a possession heavy style. I expect Will Skelton and Richie Arnold to make the World Cup squad and I would personally have them in the match day 23. Both are used to a high possession game and would be at their best in that game plan.
Will Skelton of Australia pictured during the Autumn International match between Ireland and Australia at Aviva Stadium on November 19, 2022 in Dublin, Ireland. (Photo by Charles McQuillan/Getty Images)
In addition, the typical weakness in the Australian side is in their defending. In Super Rugby, the Rebels, Brumbies, and Reds rank in the bottom six by the number of unsuccessful tackles they allow in a game. An unsuccessful tackle is either a missed tackle or one where an offload is allowed. Playing a low-possession game when your defending isn’t up to scratch is a recipe for disaster. The Rebels have done that this year where they have had less than 50% possession and a pretty woeful defence.
We will wait to see which option Jones and his coaching staff choose. Needless to say, they won’t have very long to stress test it before the World Cup comes along. Will that stop him from doing anything too extreme?
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.