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Opinion
In a Rugby World Cup year, rugby proponents flock to predict winners and justify reasons for their team’s impending glory.
I am no different – except that not only have I formed a habit of picking a winner, but also an underdog. They need not necessarily win the tournament, but they are a team that has the power to do exceptional things.
In 2015, my favourite was, of course, New Zealand. But my underdog was Ireland. I had seen snippets in the lead-up to the tournament that showed the Irish could deliver a rousing performance and topple any of the top five teams on their day. However, I was left disappointed after their underwhelming quarter-final showing against Argentina, despite all the theoretical pieces to make a considerable run.
Four years later, and while my chosen underdog was Japan, Ireland once again proved their validity as a Rugby World Cup contender in the lead-up to the tournament – notching wins over the All Blacks and a Six Nations title. But once again, it was not enough – they underdelivered on rugby’s most important stage.
Twice, in two campaigns, have the Irish failed to execute.
It is not a secret Irish fans or punters aim to conceal either, with many questioning whether Ireland had once again ‘peaked too early’ following their series win in New Zealand in 2022.
In the heavily northern hemisphere-dominated game leading up to Rugby World Cup 2023, Leinster’s herculean presence throughout the season has been the talk of the provincial rugby sphere. A European Championship Final at the Aviva? It would have been remiss of me to assume anything but a convincing Leinster victory.
However, much like I felt with Ireland’s underwhelming performance in 2015, I was left disappointed by Leinster’s second-half implosion, which handed La Rochelle back-to-back European titles.
Did La Rochelle win the game? Or did Leinster lose it? I wish not to take anything away from La Rochelle’s performance because it was quite outstanding, but the collapse resembled the infamous performance of the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl 51.
I wonder whether there is more to Leinster’s performance than meets the eye. Is this defeat the start of the usual Irish demise in the lead-up to Rugby World Cup 2023, or could it be a catalyst for Andy Farrell’s men come October?
With 20 Leinster players named in Farrell’s Six Nations-winning squad, the prowess and development of the Leinster club is quite remarkable. In the lead-up, and indeed the first 20-odd minutes of Saturday’s final, Leinster played some blistering rugby.
A combination of the lush Aviva turf and Jamison Gibson-Park’s continued development contributed to the ruck speed and width of Leinster’s attack that rattled opponents all season, including La Rochelle (who were simply blown away by the impressive start seen on Saturday).
Defensively, the line speed and trademark Farrell ‘connectedness’ of the Leinster players were again prevalent in the early stages, rushing and pressuring the known ball carriers of the La Rochelle outfit.
Leinster’s (and potentially Ireland’s) problems lie in their second-half performance. What concerned me was Leinster’s lack of ruthlessness – their ability to squeeze the La Rochelle outfit into submission and dominate the fixture as they had done in the first 20 minutes.
The distinct foot-on-the-brake on the cusp of half-time gave La Rochelle a glimmer of hope. Not a significant one, but enough for them to enter half-time still believing in their ability to mount a comeback in the second half.
(Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)
It makes me wonder whether it is a sign of things to come or a reflection of past shortcomings.
While on the surface, it would seem that Ireland has gone from strength to strength in their 2022/23 performances, the reality is that in pressured situations, they haven’t. They were taken the full 80 minutes by an ill-disciplined (albeit resilient) Australian outfit in late 2022 and secured the 2023 Six Nations in a less than convincing fashion at home, against an English side still finding its footing under Steve Borthwick’s leadership.
Similar to Leinster’s performance over the weekend, when pressure was applied to the Irish team in a do-or-die environment (at home, no less), their performance faltered. There were noticeable holes. Holes that a well-drilled French, South African, or New Zealand team can exploit come October.
However, let there be no mistake: I am not questioning the validity of Ireland’s recent victories, because they have earned them and deserve to be at the top of world rugby. It is no secret that these recent successes have been built on their defensive prowess – their stifling style of play and their ability to withstand pressure and accumulate points when opportunities arise.
It may not be as flashy as the French style of play, but how else can you counter such flair?
The flipside, I suppose, and one that Irish proponents will no doubt argue, is that the defeat grounds Farrell’s men throughout the summer. The disappointment lingers a little longer, and the motivation to prove themselves grows a little bit stronger.
Farrell’s coaching history is no secret, with his instrumental presence in the British and Irish Lions’ series win in 2013 and draw in 2017. In his now-famous ‘hurt arena’ speech leading up to the 2013 Lions series decider, Farrell emphasised the mental shift required among the players to secure a series victory. It was about breaking thought patterns, taking the opposition to the ‘hurt arena,’ and adopting a ruthlessly winning mindset.
(Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
Similar to the Lions at that time, and as Farrell will undoubtedly allude to come September, Ireland’s Rugby World Cup mentality has long been associated with failure and underperformance. But I don’t see the weekend’s hiccup causing an Irish collapse come October.
By virtue of Farrell’s coaching style and ability to call on the inner-mongrel, I think there is too much class in this year’s Ireland outfit to allow for a disappointing result. Whilst other factors including venues and the post-pool stage draw will certainly play a part, Farrell’s men will be ready coming off a long and reflective summer.
Whilst the Leinster performance is most certainly a hole in the Irish sail leading into Rugby World Cup 2023, it is a prime opportunity for the Irish to not only continue applying their stifling physicality to teams, but for Farrell to instil the mental shift required to take them from Rugby World Cup chokers to titleholders.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.