Working out who’s who in the NRL zoo at the halfway point of the season is more complicated than usual by the uneven nature of the new-look draw.
The allocation of three byes throughout 2023 means that as we head into the turning point of the season in Round 14, there are four teams – South Sydney, Parramatta, North Queensland and Brisbane – who have already played 13 matches (which will become 14 this weekend) but six others who have only racked up 11.
Three clubs who made last year’s finals are currently outside the top eight – the Roosters, Cowboys and Eels – while the Broncos, Dolphins, Warriors, Titans and Knights are exceeding expectations.
Most pre-season pundits had the Dolphins and Warriors filling two of the bottom four rungs on the ladder but they are sixth and eighth respectively as they head into an Auckland showdown between the upstarts on Saturday.
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What’s done is done from the first half of the season, all anyone cares about now is whether their team will make the finals or in the case of a few stragglers, whether they’ll avoid the wooden spoon.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
And yes, for those of you obsessed with State of Origin, the NRL premiership is still ongoing over the next six weeks.
The competition points are worth the same for any win during this period, a fact that many coaches and players seem to forget when they place extra value on those “must-win” matches in the last few rounds.
Team by team, here is how the second half of the season is shaping up for all 17 teams.
Remaining schedule: Dragons (home), Roosters (away), Cowboys (away), Knights (home), Storm (away), bye, Dolphins (away), Bulldogs (home), Sharks (home), Storm (home), Sea Eagles (away), Titans (away), Eels (home), Cowboys (home)
They have a relatively soft schedule through the rest of the Origin period and Ivan Cleary is likely to follow last year’s lead and rest his Blues contingent in one hit after game three, which would be the trip to Redcliffe in Round 20.
How he manages the heavy workload on his stars will determine whether they go all out for top spot or take their foot off the pedal in the closing rounds to freshen up his squad for the playoffs as they look to make their fourth grand final on the trot and become the first team in four decades to take home a threepeat of titles.
Prediction: A third minor premiership in four years is there for the taking but the premiers should finish top four no matter what.
Remaining schedule: Broncos (home), Storm (away), Bulldogs (home), bye, Dragons (home), Tigers (away), Warriors (away), Sea Eagles (home), Panthers (away), Rabbitohs (away), Titans (home), Cowboys (away), Knights (away), Raiders (home)
Only have one more bye on the schedule plus tough trips to Melbourne, Penrith and South Sydney in the second half of the season.
They proved last year they were a reliable regular-season machine by finishing second but went no further – if Nicho Hynes stays healthy, then they should finish on the cusp of the top four.
Prediction: Will probably snare a top-four berth but need to start taking down big guns like the Panthers, Storm and Souths.
Remaining schedule: Sharks (away), Knights (home), bye, Titans (home), Dolphins (home), bye, Bulldogs (away), Rabbitohs (away), Roosters (home), Cowboys (away), Eels (home), bye, Raiders (away)
Looked like they were getting the mid-season wobbles after losses to Melbourne and Penrith but regained momentum last week when a depleted team toppled the Warriors in Auckland.
The guaranteed six points from three remaining byes mean they are all but certain to finish in the top four (unless they repeat last year’s late collapse) with Souths and (perhaps) Cronulla the only legit title contenders left on their schedule.
Prediction: Should finish top four and a minor premiership is not out of the question.
Remaining schedule: Cowboys (away), Sharks (home), Tigers (away), Sea Eagles (home), Panthers (home), bye, Roosters (away), Knights (away), Eels (home), Panthers (away), Raiders (home), Dragons (away), Titans (home), Broncos (home)
The Storm have yet again silenced pre-season predictions that this could be the year they finally fall down the ladder by again being in the top four at the halfway mark of the season even without fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen lacing up a boot due to his lengthy fractured kneecap rehab.
Their two clashes with Penrith will make or break their top-four chances but with seven home games plus a bye on the horizon, the Storm are well placed to snare a double chance in the playoffs.
Prediction: It would be a surprise if they didn’t finish in the top four.
Remaining schedule: Warriors (home), bye, Roosters (away), Titans (home), Dragons (away), bye, Warriors (away), Knights (home), Tigers (home), Storm (away), Bulldogs (home), Broncos (home), Sharks (away)
Easily the hardest team to predict this season. They were woeful the first month of the season but have streaked their way up the ladder to now be in playoff contention.
They only face five remaining matches against teams currently in the top eight, including the Warriors twice. It all adds up to a golden chance for the Raiders to even knock on the door of the top four.
But even Friday night’s win over Wests Tigers had an element of luck to it. Can’t bank on this team to deliver the goods.
Prediction: Will be a win either side of the top-eight cut-off. Best-case scenario they could challenge for the top four but equally, they could be second-half faders, as is their want.
Remaining schedule: Titans (away), Dragons (away), bye, Cowboys (home), Warriors (away), Bulldogs (home), bye, Broncos (home), Tigers (away), Sharks (home), Dragons (home), Knights (away), bye, Roosters (home)
With three byes up their sleeve and a marshmallow-soft draw in the back half of the season, disaster would have to strike for Souths to not finish among the top few rungs on the ladder.
Despite finishing the season in form, they had to do it the hard way last year from seventh before bowing out in the prelim final stage. A home final and a second bite at the finals apple means they are setting themselves up for a red-hot crack at the title.
Prediction: The main rivals to Penrith for the minor premiership. With this run home, the Bunnies should finish top two or top four at worst.
Dolphins winger Jamayne Isaako is roped in by the Broncos. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Remaining schedule: Warriors (home), Sea Eagles (away), bye, Eels (home), Broncos (away), Titans (away), Panthers (home), bye, Bulldogs (away), Knights (home), Roosters (away), Tigers (away), Cowboys (home), Warriors (home)
When they started the season with three straight wins, a check of the history books revealed 82% of teams kick on to make the finals.
Everyone has been waiting for the expansion team of journeymen and veterans to fall off but here we are at the halfway mark and they are two competition points off top spot.
Losing Tom Gilbert long term to a shoulder dislocation in Origin on Wednesday night is a massive blow to the Dolphins’ prospects but they’ve shown great resilience already when the likes of Felise Kaufusi (two suspensions) and first-choice half Sean O’Sullivan (pectoral tear) have been sidelined.
Prediction: With seven away games plus a “home” game in Perth against the Knights, the new boys face a road-heavy schedule. Their fate is still well in their own hands but whether they make the finals probably depends on whether a few heavyweight clubs below them get their act together. Will probably just miss out on a historic playoff berth in year one.
Remaining schedule: Dolphins (home), Raiders (away), bye, Dragons (away), Rabbitohs (home), Eels (away), Sharks (home), Raiders (home), bye, Titans (away), Tigers (away), Sea Eagles (home), Dragons (home), Dolphins (away)
They only have five more trips across the Tasman to Australia in the second half of the season with two byes and a relocated Wests Tigers game in Waikato on the schedule.
There have been a few worrying signs lately that rookie coach Andrew Webster’s surprise packet team is starting to stagnate as the weekly grind takes more of an effect with the season winding on.
Prediction: It would be a surprise if they can maintain a spot in the top eight but if they can tread water mid-season, their last six weeks is not particularly tough based on the 2023 form of their opponents.
Remaining schedule: Rabbitohs (home), Tigers (home), bye, Broncos (away), Raiders (away), Dolphins (home), Eels (away), Roosters (home), Cowboys (home), Warriors (home), Sharks (away), Panthers (home), Storm (away), Bulldogs (home)
They have one of the toughest schedules in the second half of the season with eight teams currently in the top eight looming.
They need to cash in on home games against the Tigers, Roosters, Cowboys and Warriors otherwise they’ll be no chance.
Prediction: They look like they’re going to backwards and miss out on the playoffs by two or three wins.
Remaining schedule: Bulldogs (home), Panthers (home), Knights (away), Raiders (home), Sea Eagles (away), bye, Storm (home), Titans (away), Broncos (away), Sea Eagles (home), Dolphins (home), Eels (away), Tigers (home), Rabbitohs (home)
They have seven home games left and apart from a two-week stretch in South-East Queensland and a bus trip to Newcastle, they have their remaining matches in Sydney.
The next five rounds could define whether the Roosters miss the finals for the first time in seven years and only the second time since Trent Robinson took over as coach in 2013.
Apart from a clash with premiers Penrith, a firing Roosters side should be able to win the other four matches leading into their bye. But the way the team has been travelling lately, they could lose them all heading into a tough eight-week stretch to finish the regular season.
Prediction: A playoff berth is no guarantee and they will likely finish somewhere around eighth but only be making up the numbers in the finals based on what they’ve shown in 2023.
Remaining schedule: bye, Dolphins (home), Eels (away), Storm (away), Roosters (home), bye, Cowboys (home), Sharks (away), Dragons (away), Roosters (away), Panthers (home), Warriors (away), Bulldogs (away), Tigers (home)
Only five top-eight teams remaining in their draw and two byes kicking them along means Manly are well placed to rise into the lower half of the top eight.
Tom Trbojevic. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
Unless the Roosters come good, they have a relatively soft run into the finals in the eight rounds after their last bye.
Prediction: They should squeeze into the eight but anything higher looks unlikely.
Remaining schedule: bye, Broncos (away), Roosters (home), Panthers (away), Bulldogs (away), bye, Tigers (home), Storm (home), Raiders (away), Dolphins (away), Bulldogs (home), Rabbitohs (home), Sharks (home), Dragons (away)
With seven matches on the schedule against top-eight outfits, the Knights’ chances of jumping into the playoff equation don’t look great.
They’ve had a couple of encouraging wins recently over Manly and Gold Coast but have also been thumped by the Sharks and Eels.
Prediction: They look more likely to drop a few rungs rather than rise any higher in the second half of 2023.
Remaining schedule: bye, Bulldogs (away), Sea Eagles (home), Dolphins (away), bye, Warriors (home), Titans (home), Cowboys (away), Storm (away), Dragons (home), Broncos (away), Roosters (home), Panthers (away), bye
Three byes and only five games against top-eight opponents adds up to a golden opportunity for the blue and golds to rise rapidly up the ladder after an inconsistent start to the year.
Whispers started to emerge about whether Brad Arthur deserved his contract extension after their 1-4 start to the year and despite having one of the tougher schedules in the first half of the season, they have collected some big scalps in Penrith and South Sydney along the way.
Prediction: They should churn their way through the mid-table logjam over the next eight weeks and if they can knock off teams like the Broncos, Panthers and Bunnies, they are set to rise as high as fifth or sixth.
Remaining schedule: Roosters (away), Eels (home), Sharks (away), bye, Knights (home), Rabbitohs (away), Broncos (home), Panthers (away), Dolphins (home), bye, Knights (away), Raiders (away), Sea Eagles (home), Titans (away)
They’ve got a pretty tough schedule despite having two byes still to come.
The Dogs would have to upset a few of the six top-eights on the horizon to be any shot of sneaking into the finals. That looks unlikely.
Prediction: The playoff drought will extend into a seventh year with Canterbury likely to remain in their purgatory position around 13th-15th.
Remaining schedule: Raiders (home), Titans (away), Storm (home), bye, Cowboys (away), Sharks (home), Knights (away), Dragons (away), Rabbitohs (home), Raiders (away), Warriors (home), Dolphins (home), Roosters (away), Sea Eagles (away)
Avoiding the wooden spoon is not the highest of goals but it’s the most realistic one for Wests and after three wins in a month, including an upset over Penrith and the 66-18 hiding dished out to the Cowboys, they are on track for the giddy heights of 16th and beyond.
Should have beaten Canberra to open Round 14 if not for a terrible late refereeing call.
Prediction: They looked certainties to come last after their winless first eight rounds but with Tim Sheens investing in young prospects, they will cause a few more upsets to avoid back-to-back spoons.
Remaining schedule: Storm (home), bye, Panthers (home), Rabbitohs (away), Tigers (home), bye, Sea Eagles (away), Eels (home), Titans (away), Broncos (home), bye, Sharks (home), Dolphins (away), Panthers (away)
They retain belief in the tropics about their finals prospects and they are still a while away from getting out the calculators to being “mathematical chances” only.
Jason Taumalolo. (Photo by Andy Jackson/Getty Images)
But even with Jason Taumalolo returning from his knee injury, the Cowboys don’t appear to have that special something which took them to within a converted try against Parra of making the grand final last year.
Prediction: They have an unenviable combination of having to negotiate the Origin period with a few of their main players representing Queensland while also trying to regain form at club level. They won’t finish in the bottom two or three spots but they won’t rise much higher.
Remaining schedule: Panthers (away), Rabbitohs (home), bye, Warriors (home), Sharks (away), Raiders (home), bye, Tigers (home), Sea Eagles (home), Eels (away), Rabbitohs (away), Storm (home), Warriors (away), Knights (home)
The win over the Roosters a couple of weeks ago had a feeling of the dead cat bounce to it in the wake of Anthony Griffin’s sacking.
It’s hard to see where St George Illawarra’s next win is coming. A cynic would say 2024.
Prediction: Almost certain to get the wooden spoon. There appears a distinct lack of cohesion at the club at all levels from the board to the playing field.
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