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The Brumbies are the best team in Australia, and they have a chance to make the Super Rugby semi-finals this weekend but to do so they will have to beat the Hurricanes, a team they lost to previously this season.
In this article, we look at what the Brumbies need to do to turn the tables and advance.
It’s worth starting off by saying that this game is a clash of styles. The Hurricanes carry the second highest amount in the league whereas the Brumbies sit down in 10th. The Brumbies make the second highest amount of tackles in the league, averaging over 150 per game. These are two teams with wildly different approaches to playing rugby, but they’ve seen success this season regardless of that.
Those differences are important though. The Brumbies have only lost to four teams this season; Crusaders, Hurricanes, Chiefs, and the Force. Those four teams rank within the top five by possession. The Brumbies have problems when they face high possession teams, the Hurricanes will try and attack that weakness. What can the Brumbies do to tighten up in that area?
The first thing is straightforward, the Brumbies have to make the most of their entries to the opposition redzone. Across the season they have had almost exactly the same 22 entries as the Hurricanes. However, when the teams met earlier in the season, the Canes limited the Brumbies to just seven 22 entries, way below average. The Brumbies had only six rucks in the Canes’ 22.
The Brumbies won’t be able to hang with the Canes this weekend if that same scenario is repeated. They will have to maximise two things; the number of opportunities they have and the success they have per entry. With the majority of 22 entries coming from set-pieces, the Brumbies will need to be efficient when given these opportunities. They aren’t built to chase games and so they will need to keep chipping away at the Hurricanes and amassing points as the game progresses.
The Brumbies will be helped by a lineout which has fired this year. It has been the fourth best in the league with an 87% success rate – the top three are the Waratahs, Reds, and Force. Again though, the Hurricanes won this area when they faced off earlier in the year. They lost just one of their 13 lineouts whereas the Brumbies lost two of their 11. This is an important factor for all low possession teams. Being a low possession team isn’t just about kicking the ball all the time, it’s about knowing when to strike and being clinical when you do. Generally, the Brumbies have succeeded at this. But when playing high possession teams, they have less room to fail.
The Brumbies have been the least penalised team this year, giving up fewer than ten penalties per game. The Hurricanes are the next most penalised team. In the above clip, the Brumbies are penalised for failing to roll away in the ruck. That penalty, near halfway, gifted the Hurricanes a 22 entry from a position where they had no right to create that attacking platform. That would eventually lead to a try a few minutes later. The Brumbies only gave up six penalties in that match, but that was more than the Canes who gave up just four. These free attacking platforms will kill the Brumbies. They need to force the Canes to give up penalties and they need to win that battle.
Out of interest, typically penalties conceded is not a very good indicator of success. There are plenty of ways of giving up penalties in a productive way. For example, you might give up a penalty when under pressure in exchange for not conceding the try. Alternatively, you might target your opposition when they are attacking in their own 22 in the hope of stealing possession. Any penalty conceded there is unlikely to hurt you. However, penalties conceded between the 22s are undoubtedly painful. They grant your opponents’ chances and take chances away from you.
Finally though, we need to talk about kicking. The Brumbies kick just over 23 times per match which puts them around mid-table. That is unusual for a low possession team who we would usually expect to kick a lot. Against the Canes though they kicked, and kicked, and kicked some more. They kicked 37 times in total. That’s the second most kicks by a team in the league this year.
It really got away from the Brumbies. Some of their kicks were good but some were mindless and gifted the Hurricanes good attacking opportunities. I respect the Brumbies’ willingness to fully lean into their stereotype as a low possession team, but they probably went too far when they faced off against the Canes. That will be even more challenging now. The Brumbies have shown their hand in that match earlier in the season. Will they do the same or will they try and double bluff the Kiwi team?
This is a fascinating match-up. It’s probably the match-up of the quarterfinal. On paper, the Brumbies are the better team, but they also lost this game earlier in the year. Can the Brumbies correct that? Yes, but they’ll need to address those crucial factors.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.