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It might be bloated and much maligned, but we’re finally at the business end of Super Rugby Pacific for 2023. Foregone conclusions? Let’s have a look:
No one is giving the Tahs a chance in this one, with good reason. One of the biggest mysteries is just how they still have any people showing up to watch them, given how intensely disappointing the Tahs been for basically forever. Given their resources, they should have been one of the dominant Super Rugby teams since its inception but have only managed to translate that into one title win.
Good on the 20,000 or so that did show up to farewell Michael Hooper last weekend, a man who really hasn’t deserved to make as many painful post-match speeches explaining losses as he has done, but even that was a disappointment as his side was well beaten by Moana Pasifika. Throw in the not-so-insignificant fact that the Blues gashed them for 55 points less than a month ago and Friday’s fixture is looking pretty bleak.
The only upside is that if the Blues are as bad as they were in their insomnia-curing game over the Highlanders, the Tahs will have a sniff if they can convert their chances. The home side will welcome back Beauden Barrett but have lost skipper Patrick Tuipulotu, otherwise the team is pretty settled. There have been some questions over their consistency, but it feels like this is a perfect way to reset towards what’s looking like a likely trip to Christchurch next weekend.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Here’s where it gets slightly more interesting as the Reds did pull off the upset of the season when they beat the Chiefs back in round 12 (sorry Tahs fans, that just makes the Moana result sound even worse). Clayton McMillan made a massive blunder in his team selections that night, but the promising sign from the Reds in their 25-22 victory is that if they can repeat that gameplan with the same intensity, they’ll at least have a shot.
The Reds are an interesting case. They certainly have some intriguing players but also the consistency of a slightly blocked toilet, which nevertheless has resulted in them sliding into the playoffs. Interestingly though, apart from their first-round blowout against the Hurricanes, they have probably played their best rugby against the New Zealand sides this year.
Ominously, the Chiefs are looking like they’ve reset and rebuilt since that loss in New Plymouth. They will be at full strength and in front of a decent crowd in Hamilton.
So, here’s where the criticism of Super Rugby right now hits a bit of a paradox. Everyone seemingly hates the eight-team playoff structure, but everyone loves watching the Fijian Drua. This weekend you can’t have the latter without the former, which does somewhat justify both expansion and format, the two biggest issues Super Rugby has had for its entire existence.
In saying that, it’s going to be the most uphill of battles for the Fijians in Christchurch. Yes, they beat the Crusaders in a stunning upset last time they met, but that was on a 35 degree afternoon in Lautoka. The conditions for this one will be literally the polar opposite – Christchurch at this time of year is about as cold as Hamish McLennan wants everyone to think Rugby Australia’s relationship with NZ Rugby is, plus the Crusaders are playing to send Scott Robertson out on a high before he takes up his role as All Black coach.
(Photo By Ramsey Cardy/Sportsfile via Getty Images)
Really though, the big story about the Drua is how many players this could potentially be the last game for. They are losing nine after this season, including Kalaveti Ravouvou and Joseva Tamani, plus it feels like it’s just a matter of time before top try-scorer Iosefo Masi gets an offer elsewhere that will be too good to turn down.
The Brumbies and Canes have a unique shared history: both were assembled from the original offcut Super 12 players, belying expectations to become contenders within one season, often finding each other at pivotal points of campaigns…and both having cold, inhospitable stadiums.
This is easily the most interesting game of the quarters, not only because the Brumbies are at home, but also that the last time these sides played it was one of the best games of the year. The Brumbies are not only the shining light for Australian rugby right now, but also the legitimacy of the competition itself: if they make the semis, it at least shows the potential is there if the national talent pool gets a bit deeper than ankle height for the rest of the teams.
The Canes benefitted from a friendly soft draw to open the season and were looking likely to drop their last three games before the playoffs before upsetting the Crusaders last weekend. It didn’t shake the fact that it felt like a one-off – there was nothing riding on it for the defending champs, so the Brumbies should probably focus on what they learned in their somewhat unlucky 32-27 loss to the Canes in round 10.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.