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Opinion
In the true spirit of Bazball, it’s time to charge down the wicket and make an outlandish attempt to hit the ball out of the park in predicting how the Ashes will pan out.
As previously noted, this is shaping up as one of the most unpredictable Ashes series in living memory.
In the blue corner is England, a team that was just 18 months ago rightly branded the worst side to tour Australia and they were lucky to escape a series whitewash by the skin of their tailenders’ teeth after Sydney’s rain intervened.
But they have somehow reinvigorated themselves to a point where they have won 11 of their past 13 Tests to enter the return bout as an even-money bet to regain the urn they haven’t laid hands on since 2017.
And in the baggy green corner is Pat Cummins newly minted world Test champions who have been the superior five-day side for the past two years.
Cameron Green. (Photo by Matt Roberts – CA/Cricket Australia via Getty Images)
But the last time Australia won a series in England, Steve Waugh was the captain, John Howard was the Prime Minister, there was no such thing as smart phones, social media or Twenty20 cricket. Simpler times.
So predicting the outcome of this contest is “difficult to see – always in motion, is the future,” in the words of a former Dagobah First XI veteran wicketkeeper. Yoda, that is.
Anyway, enough with the pre-emptive excuses. Here are a range of fearless Ashes predictions which will be referenced with hyperlinks in future articles if they turn out to be true or mysteriously disappear from the content management system if they are as wide of the mark as a Steve Harmison first ball of the Ashes.
It shouldn’t be the case but the signs are already there that the gun-shy Australian selectors will not pull the trigger on David Warner’s Test career despite his diminishing returns at the top of the order.
Warner made 43 and one against India in the World Test Championship final as he tries to wipe away memories of his disastrous 2019 Ashes campaign when he managed just 95 runs at a woeful 9.5 average.
Head coach Andrew McDonald somehow managed to paint a bright picture of Warner after yet another modest Test.
“I thought Davey moved well in the first innings,” he said. “He got strangled down the leg side. You look at that, and you say ‘a little bit of luck there and potentially that’s a bigger score’. But the way he moved, the way he played is exactly what we want.”
The flatter wickets that are supposedly going to be on offer could help Warner more than any other player. If they’re like the surface at The Oval for the WTC final, he should be able to make enough starts and avoid a repeat of four years ago to prevent the selectors from tapping him on the shoulder, which they are clearly trying to avoid anyway.
David Warner edges and is caught by KS Bharat on day one of the World Test Championship Final. (Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
To conspiracy theorists, it seems like there’s a different set of rules for Warner when it comes to selection, which prompts them to claim he has ammunition up his sleeve from the Sandpapergate scandal that Cricket Australia never wants to see the light of day.
Of course there is no evidence in the slightest to suggest this but that doesn’t stop your suspicious mate down the pub who is convinced there’s hidden agendas at play.
The selectors are simply loath to drop a legend of Australian cricket, which they showed last year when white-ball skipper Aaron Finch was allowed to play on until the T20 World Cup when it was apparent to all and sundry that he was no longer up to international standard.
He’s been described as a hit and miss opener but the misses far outweigh the few hits.
With just three tons and eight half-centuries in 63 Test innings and an average of 28.26, he has failed to reach double figures on 29 occasions.
No Australian bowler will be too concerned if they see him walking out at the top of the order.
Alex Lees, who also has modest returns in his 10 Tests, is the likely replacement if Crawley gets dumped or the English selectors could get funky with Stokes, Joe Root or even Jonny Bairstow promoted to opener.
Steve Smith will announce this is his final Ashes tour, after the series. There have been all sorts of signals and non-committal statements from the veteran Australian batter about his playing future.
The 2027 series looks a year or two too far away for Smith, who turned 34 earlier this month.
Despite having a year off cricket due to his ban in 2018, he is starting to show signs of wear and tear and like many elite players in the twilight of his career, the riches on offer from the T20 circuit are going to be very hard to turn down.
Who needs a superannuation plan when you can make millions off the various franchises for a fraction of the work that’s required to be a full-time international cricketer.
A dodgy knee is a fast bowler’s nightmare and judging by the small sample size of Ben Stokes rolling his arm over recently, he’s definitely nowhere near 100% fit.
He did get through a few overs at full pace in the nets on Wednesday so he’s not a total crock. As the son of a Kiwi rugby league international who elected to have his finger cut off so he could return to the field sooner, Stokes will no doubt try to tough it out and get through a few short spells when needed.
But on the back of Jack Leach being out for the series and retiree Moeen Ali drafted in to replace him, if Stokes cannot operate at full capacity with the ball, it would be a hammer blow for England.
They need Stokes chiming into the attack at full throttle given there are question marks lingering over the fitness of frontline quicks Ollie Robinson (ankle) and James Anderson (groin), and durability of Mark Wood and Stuart Broad.
Despite establishing himself on the last Ashes tour when he stepped in as a concussion substitute for Steve Smith mid-Test, Marnus Labuschagne has under-performed on foreign soil.
He made four half-centuries in 2019, including his memorable 59 in the second innings as Smith’s place at Lord’s facing a Jofra Archer onslaught, but didn’t convert any of those starts into tons.
Labuschagne has registered just one of his 10 centuries overseas – on last year’s Sri Lanka tour – but averages at least 44 against the seven nations he’s faced, a hallmark of his excellent consistency.
At 28 and with 38 Tests under his belt, the time is right for him to produce an Ashes campaign that has statisticians reaching for the record books/online databases.
Joe Root won’t be too far behind him. He’s the English Warner – struggles on Ashes tours but loves to plunder runs at home.
Mitchell Starc celebrates the wicket of Virat Kohli. (Photo by Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
The Aussies will likely pick him for the first Test but Mitchell Starc appears to be the most vulnerable of Australia’s four frontline quicks against a Bazballing opposition.
As long as captain Pat Cummins fulfils his goal of ling up for all five matches, Scott Boland and Josh Hazlewood should end up playing more Tests than Starc if the selectors rotate the trio throughout the series.
Starc is embarking on his fourth tour of England, where he has managed a decent return of 37 wickets from 10 Tests, but he can leak runs more so than the other Aussie fast bowlers and can struggle to contain aggressive top-order batters.
Cummins took him off after just two overs with the new ball in the first innings of the WTC final against India after he went for 14 runs and used Boland ahead of him in the second innings.
It’s a tough ask for Cameron Green to live up to the high expectations placed on him, particularly given he’s getting his first taste of English conditions.
He might struggle with the bat in the first couple of Tests but by the end of the series he will be a major thorn in England’s side and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he chalked up a couple of tons.
Stokes asking the curators to prepare fast, flat wickets may help England’s Bazball style but it also takes away one of their greatest strengths when they play Australia.
The visiting batters aren’t used to seaming pitches and apart from Steve Smith and a county stalwart like former opener Chris Rogers, most Australians on recent tours have been brought undone by the combination of movement off the pitch, coupled with the greater swing of the Dukes ball.
You would think the curators might get a call to juice up the wickets mid-series if England lose the first Test or two but McCullum and Stokes are known for adhering to the tenets of their Bazball philosophy so it wouldn’t surprise if they stick to their guns in the belief that their attacking style will emerge victorious no matter what.
Ollie Robinson was derided by the Australian fans and media for his limp performance in the 2021-22 Ashes tour.
He was the actually one of the better bowlers in a bad bunch in taking 11 wickets across four Tests at 25.54.
But his pace dropped dramatically as the series wore on as questions were raised about his fitness and he even bowled a few overs of spin at one stage when England fielded a team without a recognised tweaker.
He was told in no uncertain terms by the team hierarchy that he needed to get fit and did so.
Robinson will never be an express quick but he’s now able to bowl longer at a sustained pace and has bagged 27 wickets in seven Tests over the past 12 months at a superb average of 21.25.
(Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
But when it comes to most wickets in the series, the smart money is on Cummins. Barring injury, he and Nathan Lyon are probably going to be the only bowlers from either side to play all five matches.
Cummins has the pace, variation and, when needed, intimidation to defy England’s ultra-aggressive tactics
He has taken 33 wickets on English soil at 21.42, striking every 44 deliveries. He could double that tally by the end of this series.
Australia 3-1. The Aussies don’t seem to have any glaring weaknesses, even accounting for Warner’s unreliable output in England, and their fast bowling unit will make mince meat of the English top order.
The hosts have question marks over their top order, spinner and the fitness of several key players. Rain will force a draw somewhere along the line but the Australians should be too strong.