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Good golly.
If you tipped 50/50 across Round 13’s eight matches, chances are you did pretty well for yourself.
There were upsets galore as a swing of roughies got the job done on the road – and for us ‘expert’ tippers, the one underdog we collectively had faith in, the Western Bulldogs, made fools of three of us.
And bad news: this weekend looks like being just as bad. Three of six games loom as being tipster’s nightmares, especially in a season like 2023 where nothing can be taken for granted; and worse still, the gifted four points belonging to whoever takes on West Coast isn’t an option either, with the Eagles on their bye (and only about an 80 per cent chance of winning that).
But with crisis comes opportunity: could lower expectations improve our miserable run? Let’s find out.
Last week: 3
Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Fremantle, St Kilda, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs
I was a bit depressed about my 3 last week – but as it turns out, that was probably only one behind par!
There’s a real danger, given the steaming pile of excrement my tipping year has been, that I’ll get a very rare 0 this weekend, so let’s get this over with.
Port Adelaide should be winning every game at home, given the form they’re in – I wasn’t hugely impressed with them despite beating my Bulldogs last week (I personally reckon the Dogs gave the win to them on a platter) but the Cats just aren’t playing well enough to beat a premiership contender on their home turf.
Brisbane at the Gabba is the toughest task in footy right now, and I can’t see Sydney even getting close with the way they’re playing right now. A more difficult game presents on Saturday afternoon with Fremantle and GWS, but I do like the Dockers and think last week’s loss to Richmond was more an aberration than a sign their good run of form is ending.
I think Saturday night is the toughest game of all to tip. Richmond will be up and about for Trent Cotchin’s 300th, while St Kilda are just about impossible to score when they’re on. It might be foolhardy to back against the Tigers on a milestone for one of their club’s finest, but stuff it: Saints to play party poopers.
After weeks of holding out hope for them, I’ve gone officially off Carlton: they’re bad, and a Gold Coast team that match up well on them anyway should be too strong here even in Melbourne, as risky as backing the Suns to have a sensible win has been in their history.
Lastly, I am genuinely terrified about the Bulldogs’ clash with North Melbourne. The Dogs are playing wretched, clumsy footy at the moment, and a North side honest as the day is long and set to have Jy Simpkin and Luke Davies-Uniacke back are probably due a win after three honourable performances under Brett Ratten.
I couldn’t be a bigger fan of George Wardlaw in principle, but if he rips my team to shreds, then sorry George, you’ll be off the list quicker than you can say Rising Star.
Tom Hawkins of the Cats competes with Jeremy Finlayson of the Power. (Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Last week: 3
Geelong, Brisbane, Fremantle, Richmond, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs
Well, that was a bit of a nightmare.
Tipping is a difficult art form to master given logic isn’t a prerequisite, so we’ll continue throwing darts at the board and hope to land a couple of triple 20s.
More bye rounds, less footy – a horrible combination. But if you haven’t come around on Port Adelaide and Ken Hinkley yet, there’s not much more I can do for you.
There’s still one little chink in their armour, though and it comes defensively. Aliir Aliir has been good overall, but perhaps his praises are being sung a little too loudly. This is still a team that is undersized and can be taken apart. It’s why the door opens slightly for the Cats here.
Tom Hawkins has 10 goals in his last three games against the Power, Jeremy Cameron has 12 in his last four. If they’re on, the Cats win.
It’s likely that Brisbane will keep doing what they do – bully teams at home to mask their real issues. No one likes to hear it, but again, they were exposed by Hawthorn and it’s why they’re a tier below any genuine contender. Still, they should beat a struggling Swans outfit at the Gabba.
It’s an interesting game in the Saturday twilight spot: the Giants keep playing solid footy while the Dockers really fell away after a strong start against the Tigers. I really like Fremantle backing in its young players – it should hold the team in good stead for the future. That’s enough to convince me of a win here.
Trent Cotchin’s 300th game should be a great celebration of a legendary player. It may actually worth backing the Tigers here – the Saints have arguably the most effective defence in the league, but that means little if you’re against the more ineffective offence. Richmond finds ways to score – they’ll do it again here.
The Blues are a basketcase, but they’ll win a game eventually. It’s probably here if we’re being completely honest – that’s what illogical trends would indicate. But I refuse to pick them again until they win, and I love the Suns.
Finally, after watching the Dogs last week, if they want to keep playing Josh Bruce, send him forward and see if he can kick 10 goals again in this clash. They’ll win, but they’ve dropped off.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Last week: 4
Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Fremantle, St Kilda, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs
I tipped four last week – thank you Saints – and given how tough the round was, I’ll take it to the bank.
As such, I’m playing a straight bat this weekend and backing favourites. Geelong are always a chance of a win, even a diminished Cats like we’ve seen this year, but Port Adelaide are a class above at the moment and should be making it 11 on the trot at the Adelaide Oval.
Similarly, as poor as Brisbane are on the road, at the Gabba they’re just about the best team in the comp. Sydney, especially a Swans team playing as poorly as they are at the moment, are no chance.
I’m a bit torn about Fremantle’s trip to Giants Stadium- GWS are good and should have some big names back, and a Sean Darcy-less Dockers have some question marks over them. This is probably the one to go for if you’re after a roughie this weekend, but I have a little more faith in Freo despite their loss to Richmond.
I’m going against the Tigers, though, for Trent Cotchin’s 300th game against St Kilda. The Saints match up well on the Tigers, have a miserly defence that should make things difficult for a Tom Lynch-less Richmond attack, and for all the emotion that the club will muster for the triple-premiership skipper, I’m not sure that translates to four points after two tough weeks on the road in a row.
You just couldn’t tip Carlton at the moment, which probably means they’ll knock off Gold Coast on Sunday; while to finish off the round, I’m tipping the Bulldogs but can easily see them losing to a North outfit improving all the time and with a full line of midfielders set to return.
Trent Cotchin (Photo by Ryan Pierse/AFL Media/via Getty Images )
Last week: 3
Geelong, Brisbane, Fremantle, St Kilda, Carlton, Western Bulldogs
Atrociously, I only managed three – yep, just three – tips right last weekend (if I hadn’t broken the expert tipping trend and backed the Power, it would have been worse).
It’s week three of the bye, leaving little actual footy and even less room for error.
May as well start off with the solitary game of the weekend I have near enough to total confidence in tipping: the Dogs should comfortably defeat the Kangaroos on Sunday afternoon to close out the round. Ahh, yeah, it’s gonna be a tough week.
Port Adelaide are in superb touch, with Ken Hinkley’s contingent not suffering a loss since an early April Showdown, and with top two rival Collingwood losing in round 13, they have hereby inheriting the most-in-form-team moniker. That’s a whole lot more than you can say about the reigning premiers, with Geelong managing to arrest worryingly flat form with a strong win before their bye.
My preamble, conventional logic, home ground advantage and the betting odds suggest Port, but they’re due a loss and this will be it.
The upset potential continues into Friday night, as the maybe-challenging-for-finals Swans travel north to face the maybe-good-maybe-bad Lions. The fact of the matter is Brisbane are increasingly bad – away from the Gabba – but are superb in their home city, and while Sydney should show enough fight, it’s difficult to justify picking them.
Another peculiar side this weekend are the Dockers, who stagnated last weekend to make their finals ambitions more challenging but hold a good record over the Giants and thus should bounce back away from home – however nervous as I am about this clash.
Perhaps the most confounding team at the moment are the Saints, who are looking more like their second half of 2022 selves than the formidable team they’ve shown themselves to be, and that leaves them vulnerable here. Richmond have proven they’re better than the ladder suggests, and will be buoyed to win by the arrival of Trent Cotchin’s 300th game – but I’m nevertheless backing the Saints, who remain just out of top four.
It’s disgusting and dispiriting to hear the vitriol Carlton’s own supporters have thrown at them this week, but it’s no secret they’re struggling badly at the moment. A loss, at the MCG, to the formidable Suns, would be a low point. And important a win here would be important for the Suns, I’m going to back the Blues to earn back a little goodwill.
(Photo by Will Russell/AFL Photos/via Getty Images
| Round 14 | Tim | Dem | Cam | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA vs GEE | PA | GEE | PA | GEE | PA |
| BL vs SYD | BL | BL | BL | BL | BL |
| GWS vs FRE | FRE | FRE | FRE | FRE | FRE |
| RCH vs STK | STK | RCH | STK | STK | RCH |
| CAR vs GCS | GCS | GCS | GCS | CAR | CAR |
| NM vs WB | WB | WB | WB | WB | WB |
| LAST WEEK | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| ROLLING TOTAL | 70 | 79 | 75 | 75 | 77 |
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