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Picture the situation.
A champion coach enters a once-great club turned laughing stock with the remit of gutting the place and rebuilding it in their own image.
Their first job is to stare in the eyes of the club’s undoubted star player, their captain and leader, who has been prevaricating about whether they’re going to leave now or see out their contract and walk away in a year.
If that sounds familiar, it’s what Ange Postecoglou is facing right now at Tottenham Hotspur, with England superstar Harry Kane looking to run down his time at the club before leaving for nothing next year.
It’s also what Shane Flanagan is looking at with St George Illawarra, where Ben Hunt is in the process of attempting to extricate himself from the club.
Neither coach has made that call yet, but we know exactly what Ange would do if money was no object: see you later, Harry. Enjoy Madrid, or Manchester, or wherever. Thanks for the memories.
Flanagan, like Postecoglou, is fundamentally a coach who values the whole over the individual, and transfer fees aren’t a thing in the NRL, so that choice is very much on the table for the new Dragons coach.
It’s possible that other coaches that could have been parachuted into Wollongong would have made keeping Hunt onside the central aim of their tenure, but Flanagan doesn’t seen like that guy.
Instead, he has a gilt-edged opportunity to draw a line under the disastrous culture of the last five years at the club, start a playing style restructure and fund a squad overhaul, all at the time same – providing he kills the Dragons darling.
Let’s circle back through those three points to understand the situation. Being a good coach in any sport comes down to two elements – on-field strategy and off-field personality management.
There is a debatable third aspect, which varies from sport to sport and club to club, which is recruitment and list management. Flanagan will have a big say in that at the Dragons, so it’s worth going into here.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
In terms of the squad dynamics aspect, the culture at St George Illawarra has been rubbish for years, from the Covid barbecues to the infamous presentation evening and the botched search for a new coach.
It’s not Hunt’s fault, though the narrative around his position in the squad and his relationship with previous boss Anthony Griffin does suggest that he held enormous sway in the way that things were run.
This isn’t uncommon, of course, for a captain and star player, but it does present the chance for a new broom to sweep away the old mentality in an instant by removing the biggest dressing room voice.
If Flanno wants to underline that he’s the boss and his rules will go from now on, ditching Hunt is the way to go.
On the field, it makes perfect sense too. Hunt is clearly the Dragons’ outstanding player, but that is largely because the previous coach’s system was designed to benefit him.
The attacking strategy under Griffin didn’t go much further than ‘give it to Dozer’, with inevitable diminishing returns.
Hunt was exceptional in 2022. His Creativity Value – an advanced stat that measures all attacking contributions, from tries and assists to line breaks, supports and attacking kicks – was the best in the NRL, but when adjusted for possession, it drops to the bottom quartile. His numbers were only good when factored into how much they gave him the ball.
Hunt’s 2023 numbers are a little more skewed given his time spent at dummy half, which adds a lot of possessions to his total, as hookers generally touch the footy between 50% and 100% more than anyone else, making per-possession adjustment more complicated.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
But in terms of raw numbers, Hunt is still one of the better halfbacks in the competition, a clear top five and a particular standout in the business end of scoring and creating tries.
Again, this has to be considered in the context of Hook Griffin’s strategy of running the entire attack through Hunt, but plenty of sides do that too. Halfbacks get paid the big bucks for a reason.
A sensible tactical call might be to pivot away from putting all the eggs in one basket and finding multiple ways to score.
In 2016, when Flanagan won the Premiership with Cronulla, this was a key part of his side’s strengths: they generated creativity across the side, with Ben Barba at fullback, Chad Townsend at 7, Michael Ennis at 9 and James Maloney at 6 all in the top fifty for try assists, but crucially, none in the top 15. It was a shared burden.
The central criticism of Hook’s attack was that his team were the worst to watch in the competition, something that fans will stomach if the results are good but which slips away quickly when the wins dry up.
Flanagan’s philosophy has always been defence first, and comes significant question marks regarding whether it will work in the 2023 version of the NRL, which is far more open and less grinding than it was in 2016.
The metre generation back when was largely through the forwards, with Paul Gallen and Andrew Fifita ranked two and three in the comp, out of a top ten that included six middle forwards.
Now, the top ten has just one – Payne Haas – and you have to go as far down as 15th to find the next. This is a fundamental shift in how the game is played that Flanagan has to adapt to.
That isn’t to say that he can’t, and he has been coaching in NRL systems since 2020’s rule changes, so he will know this. But it opens up a case for him to look at the way the Dragons currently make metres and wonder if upgrades might be required.
If Hunt were to leave, it would empower the Dragons to invest in other areas of the team and lean into the generation that they have coming through.
The famed Illawarra Steelers junior cohort is, amazingly, still at the club despite being roundly ignored by Griffin and the spine that won the age group comps can finally get a crack if Hunt leaves.
Tyrell Sloan, Junior Amone and Jayden Sullivan as 1,6 and 7 to start next year is an absolute no-brainer. The previous regime did briefly flirt with that configuration, but Hunt’s unwillingness to play a dummy half nixed the idea before it ever got going.
Clearly, Hunt is the better option in the here and now, but Flanagan has remit to look a lot further than that. The captain is 33 and looking for one last payday, and it suits all parties to let him go get it elsewhere.
(Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)
Assuming those three are the spine, then the 1-7 is actually very secure and generally pretty good.
Zac Lomax and Moses Suli are perfectly competent centres, with Lomax the potential to be a lot better than that. Either Feagai twin, plus Mikaele Ravalawa, are more than serviceable on the wings.
This brings us onto the final part of the jigsaw, recruitment and retention. The glaring holes are at 9 and in the pack, and that’s where the huge slice of salary cap being funnelled to Hunt could be used.
Currently the hooker is Jacob Liddle, who is at least a career dummy half, which is more than could be said for Moses Mbye, the alternative option. The 9 market is notoriously hard to shop in, but St George Illawarra have close to a million dollars of Hunt’s salary to throw at it, which would likely turn heads.
Lachlan Croker and Sam Verrills are available for a chat from November 1, while Damien Cook – a South Coast native, no less – as well as Reece Robson, Jeremy Marshall-King and Brandon Smith are off the year after.
Currently the Dragons have one player in the top 50 for metres – Ravalawa – and a whole lot of nothing in the pack. Blake Lawrie, Jaydn Su’A and Jack de Belin get pass marks, but beyond those three and Toby Couchman, a raw rookie with upside, everyone could be improved upon swiftly if the cash was found.
Griffin’s dollar dazzler idea saw the club lurch between older cast-offs from other clubs and fringe first graders, and given that Flanagan was on the recruitment team at the time, he takes some culpability there.
Hook’s imperative was always to win and win now, which categorically failed. Flanagan has scope to look longer term. Without Hunt, he could invest in rep level middle – preferably one with leadership qualities – and drastically upgrade in that area.
Tevita Tatola, Taniela Paseka and Toby Rudolf are all off in 2024 in the middle, as are Liam Martin and Hudson Young in the back row.
Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Royce Hunt and Corey Horsburgh are there in 2025, as are Egan Butcher, Haumole Olakau’atu and Tui Kamikamica. There’s more than a few options on the table with a longer lens and a project to sell to players.
It all sounds very long term at the moment, but the long term has to start somewhere and for St George Illawarra, that can be now.
Flanagan has spoken about keeping Hunt around for another year, but given that he knows his halfback will walk at the end of it, it doesn’t make much sense to hold onto him for another season, by which point he will be 34.
The time has come to cut ties. It suits all parties, and could be the statement move the Dragons need. Over to you, Shane.