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Three, it’s a magic number
Apparently myself and my fellow expert tippers really got into Schoolhouse Rock this week, because all of us got the same dire result out of Round 14: 3.
The same number of number 11s Ollie Robinson reckons our cricket team has.
It’s almost enough to force us to hand in our ‘expert’ badges… particularly me, given I’m five behind everyone else and nine off the leaders. It goes without saying that this is the worst tipping season I, and possibly anyone, has ever had.
There’s no respite this week either: we have another four or maybe even five matches that could genuinely go either way, and even West Coast have risen from their usual ‘they have no chance’ rating to ‘maaaaaybe they could do it?’ with cavalry returning and playing a struggling Sydney.
If only so you can back the opposite to whoever we do, let’s get started.
Last week: 3
Melbourne, Brisbane, Sydney, Essendon, Collingwood, Gold Coast
*sigh*
Let’s get this over with.
It’s a danger to ever pick against Geelong at GMHBA Stadium – they play the ground so well and have 40,000 screaming fans at their back. But Melbourne are good, and the Cats are not only in struggle street, they have no Patrick Dangerfield again. The Dees for me – but it’s far from a sure thing, especially with Clayton Oliver missing again.
Friday night is also up for grabs: as superior as Brisbane should be to a fading St Kilda, they haven’t played well on the road all year. This isn’t at the MCG, and their record is more decent at Marvel Stadium – but if the Saints want a scalp to get back on track, this is their night, not that I’m brave enough to pick them.
If Sydney are serious they’ll demolish West Coast, who should have a number of key players back in defence but are still a long way off AFL standard. Classic AFL – making us wait until 4:35pm on Saturday for the day’s first game and then having it be the EAGLES. Still, local footy will be happy, I suppose.
Saturday night should be the match of the round: Fremantle will be desperate to atone for last week’s shocker, while Essendon have not just a finals berth in their sights, but even a home one for the first time since 2004.
The Dockers have regressed after their four-game winning streak propelled them back into the eight, and while Sean Darcy is a big inclusion, I like the Bombers here. Their excellent defensive set-up despite conceding a swathe of inside 50s bodes well against a Freo attack that’s still inconsistent, while their midfield will be bolstered by the return of Darcy Parish.
Given my tipping history this year, though, I thoroughly recommend you pick Freo.
As for Sunday, Collingwood and Adelaide will be incredible to watch if both sides come to play. The Crows have been a far cry from their Adelaide Oval best the minute they step interstate, and while their star-studded line-up means you can’t discount them, the Pies have been the team to beat all season long and will be keen to return to the top of the ladder.
And finally, Gold Coast off their own shocker face a James Sicily-less Hawthorn. This would be a disaster for the Suns if they lost, and I can definitely see it happening with the Hawks much improved, but the loss of their skipper tips things the home side’s way.
(Photo by Will Russell/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Last week: 3
Melbourne, Brisbane, Sydney, Fremantle, Collingwood, Gold Coast
Finally, we can nearly put these bye rounds behind us.
Other than being a tipping nightmare, less footy to consume suits absolutely no one. It’s not as if the cricket can help us either this week, so let’s slog our way through Round 15 together and get to the light at the end of the tunnel.
The Cats are off the boil at the moment and don’t figure to have anyone substantial to return. On the flipside, the Demons are in the hunt for the flag and will have their best player back for this game. Logic indicates Melbourne should be too good for the flailing Cats, although I expect the reigning premiers to still push for finals.
Regular readers likely know my feelings in 2023 around both the Saints and Brisbane, so it’s not exactly a classic I’ll be keen to tune into.
For all Brisbane’s struggles at the MCG, they’ve won six of their last seven games at Marvel Stadium. Pair that with the return of a star or two and the fact St Kilda’s defence has completely dropped off and it swings this contest heavily into the Lions’ favour.
Saturday’s twilight game is interesting. West Coast is horrible, but they welcome back almost their entire starting defensive unit. The Swans have had interest behind the scenes in Jeremy McGovern for a couple of seasons now, so wouldn’t it be ironic if he’s the one that helps pull off an incredible upset.
I’m not bold enough to tip the Eagles and think the Swans probably win by five goals, but this is one to watch.
The Dockers were an absolute disgrace against GWS, perhaps playing their worst game in close to a decade. Back on their home deck is a friendlier proposition and a couple of big inclusions will certainly help.
I like Essendon, even if they’re overperforming slightly at the moment. Yet teams coming off the bye have seemingly struggled this season. Do I give the Dockers another chance? Reluctantly, I suppose.
It’s a big game for Adelaide on Sunday. I think they’re a team that could slide outside the eight when things get hot, despite their best arguably being flag-worthy. On the road though, they’re a far different team. Playing against the almighty Magpies, that’s just too big a challenge.
Finally, the disappointing Suns simply have to respond well against Hawthorn. They don’t have a choice and they won’t let us down again.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Last week: 3
Melbourne, Brisbane, Sydney, Fremantle, Collingwood, Gold Coast
Three for me last week… yikes.
I’m playing a pretty straight bat this weekend: with five of six games featuring a home team against a side from interstate, I’m backing the former to get the job done throughout.
Geelong and Melbourne is the only exception on Thursday night: the Demons, while coming off the bye, beat Collingwood heading into it. That should be enough to take care of a Patrick Dangerfield-less Cats and secure their first win at GMHBA Stadium in front of a crowd since 2005, though no Clayton Oliver again makes it all the tougher.
Even though the Eagles get some players back this week, you couldn’t seriously tip them to knock over Sydney at the SCG, despite how disappointing the Swans have been this year. A more exciting match is to follow, with Fremantle hosting Essendon: it’s a coin flip, but I still haven’t given up on Freo, and reckon the chance to atone for last week’s disaster on their own turf will bring out the best in them.
If Collingwood can beat Adelaide in Adelaide – one of only two sides to do that this year – then they should have no issues accounting for them at the MCG, given the Crows hand in their superhero capes whenever they board a flight.
Lastly, Gold Coast should be beating Hawthorn at home regardless, but with James Sicily out suspended it makes winning here an even bigger non-negotiable. I’d hate to be Stuart Dew if the Hawks spring an upset.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Last week: 3
Melbourne, St Kilda, Sydney, Essendon, Collingwood, Gold Coast
It’s probably best to just dive immediately into the tips this week, given last week was yet another complete nightmare.
Speaking of complete nightmares, the Cats aren’t exactly living in one yet but certainly have problems. Their wishy-washy form took another hit with last week’s loss to the Power – though, in fairness, I doubt many teams at all could have withstood Port’s fantastic third quarter onslaught – and a wounded midfield now adds Patrick Dangerfield to their casualty list again.
Dangerfield’s absence is mimicked in the Dees’ camp with Clayton Oliver failing to return to the side – though that may not matter. Geelong are obviously stronger at home, but pre-bye, the Dees managed to conquer Collingwood without Oliver – so I’m backing them to prey on the premiers.
The Saints hosting Brisbane makes for an intriguing Friday night clash, but one that is more morbidly enthralling than genuinely entertaining. Ross Lyon’s squad is hard to pin down – losses to Hawthorn and Richmond pair with wins over Sydney and GWS in the past month – but face a stern challenge from the still-can’t-win-away Lions.
To that point: the Lions have won a game outside Queensland against a top eight side only once this season – the Blues in early May. I rate Brissy higher: however, the Saints haven’t taken a proper scalp this year and reckon they’ll sneak this one.
Saturday provides us (look away now, Eagles fans) with a default tip of the week – the Swans are in decent shape and should comfortably defeat the Eagles.
It’s more difficult a few hours later: Freo simply must win their Optus outing against the Bombers. The path becomes easier with the potential return of Sean Darcy, but more difficult when you consider the fact the Bombers are simply a better side than the two sides who bested them in the past fortnight.
You know what my heart would say, but my head is screaming Essendon.
Collingwood and the Crows should be incredible footy, but like Brisbane, the Crows suck away from home this year. It’s a blight on an optimistic year for the club, and their task against the Pies at the ‘G is daunting.
Adelaide are arguably the largest chance of an upset this weekend, but it’s nearly impossible to tip against the Pies at home.
To close out the round, the Suns and Hawks may produce an underrated, fun game of footy – and I’m backing the Suns to bounce back from Sunday’s horror loss with a win.
Andrew McGrath. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
| Round 15 | Tim | Dem | Cam | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEE vs MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL |
| STK vs BL | BL | BL | BL | STK | BL |
| SYD vs WCE | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD |
| FRE vs ESS | ESS | FRE | FRE | ESS | FRE |
| COL vs ADE | COL | COL | COL | COL | COL |
| GCS vs HAW | GCS | GCS | GCS | GCS | GCS |
| LAST WEEK | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| ROLLING TOTAL | 73 | 82 | 78 | 78 | 82 |
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