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Opinion
Australia have been able to paper over the cracks of David Warner’s lack of output at the top of the order because the team has been winning.
Losing the third Test at Headingley means they can longer ignore the issue as they look to regain the momentum in the fourth Test at Old Trafford, which starts next Wednesday.
But that is not their only problem – Scott Boland’s place in the pace attack is in jeopardy, Todd Murphy was barely used by Pat Cummins in his Ashes debut while it’s no longer a fait accompli that all-rounder Cameron Green will come back into the side after Mitchell Marsh’s century at Leeds.
Cummins rightly wasn’t overly concerned about claims that England had seized the momentum after their rousing win, pointing out that “every Test you start fresh”.
Nor should he be reaching for the panic button. No English team has ever come back from 2-0 down to win an Ashes series, even when they were six-match contests, and the only side to achieve the feat was Sir Donald Bradman’s 1936-37 squad on home turf, helped in no small part by The Don’s back-to-back double-tons in the final two matches.
Stuart Broad celebrates dismissing David Warner. (Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)
If the Aussies make the monumental and long-overdue decision to drop Warner, effectively ending his Test career before his planned retirement on home turf at the SCG in January, there are several options on the selection table but none of them are without concern.
Marcus Harris is the reserve batter in the squad after Matt Renshaw was released from the squad prior to the third Test. The Victorian left-hander is a specialist opener and he piled up the runs for Gloucester on the county scene before the Ashes with two hundreds in his 457 runs at 57.12
On the down side, it’s nearly two months since he last played a first-class fixture (or any match for that matter) and in his previous 14 Tests, he’s only made three half-centuries in 26 innings while averaging 25.19.
His presence would hardly strike fear into the hearts of English bowlers as he averages 19.75 against them from seven Tests, including a paltry 58 runs at 9.66 in three matches on the 2019 tour.
The selectors have the option of a stopgap option like Travis Head, who filled in at the top of the order on the India tour in March when Warner went home with a fractured elbow, while Green and Marsh have each opened in white-ball cricket for Australia.
Even though Head has been entrenched in the middle-order for nearly the entirety of his first-class and Test career, his haul of 223 runs at 55.75 in just five knocks in India is more than Warner’s tally of 221 at 18.41 from 12 trips to the crease.
It might not be his specialist position but Head looks a much safer option than the guy who has played 107 matches in the role.
Marnus Labuschagne is another left-field option. First drop is his preferred position and he’s got the footwork to cope with opening but, in the midst of a lean spell, the selectors would be weakening one position to strengthen another if they partnered him with Usman Khawaja.
Green was bothered by a slight hamstring strain after an increased bowling workload in the second Test but was back to full pace in training during the Headingley fixture so fitness is unlikely to be a factor if he is left out.
The selection panel of coach Andrew McDonald, George Bailey and Tony Dodemaide have been criticised for their conservative approach to the Test team in particular so with England rejuvenated after keeping the series alive with their narrow win, it is likely Australia will again play it safe with their line-up.
Boland has been surprisingly ineffective in his two Ashes outings. After ripping England apart in his three-match debut series on home turf with 18 wickets at 9.55, he’s been picked off without too much bother by their batters this time around.
His normally miserly economy rate has ballooned to 4.91 and after taking two wickets in the Edgbaston series opener, he didn’t strike a blow at Headingley.
Mitchell Marsh celebrates his century. (Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)
Josh Hazlewood, who played the first two Ashes Tests, is likely to be rotated back into the pace attack while Mitchell Starc, who was controversially dropped for the opening match, has bagged 13 wickets at 23.38 and should play out the rest of this series.
There has been a cacophony of calls for Queensland’s Michael Neser to get a run – he’s been released from the squad to return to county duties at Glamorgan this week but will rejoin the squad for the Old Trafford outing so he’s not out of the running.
Murphy only bowled 9.3 overs in Leeds with just two of them in the second innings when the spinner would normally be given plenty of chances to exploit a wearing wicket.
Cummins said the pitch did not suit the young Victorian but you get the feeling that Nathan Lyon would have been entrusted with more overs if he hadn’t been sent home with a torn calf.
The Manchester surface is known to be usually conducive to spin and with no other options in the squad, Murphy is set to hold his spot.
Despite winning, England have issues to resolve. Ollie Robinson (back) is likely to be unavailable but he was probably going to be rotated out of the line-up anyway so James Anderson can return to the ground which bears his name at one of the bowling ends, possibly for the last time in a Test.
Chris Woakes celebrates with Mark Wood after hitting the winning runs. (Photo by Ashley Allen/Getty Images)
Ben Stokes now has a glute problem to exacerbate his knee injury so he is likely to play as a specialist batter again with player of the match Mark Wood and Chris Woakes retained after their starring performances in their first appearance of the series.
First drop and wicketkeeper are their problem areas. Jonny Bairstow’s glovework has been terrible and his tally of 141 runs at 23.5 is not enough to justify picking him ahead of Ben Foakes.
Moeen Ali has plenty of experience batting at No.3 in county cricket but the experiment at Test level failed in the second innings when he was castled by Starc for five.
Harry Brook also went cheaply when he was promoted two spots in the first dig and he looked much more comfortable back in the middle order with his match-winning 75 on day four.
Stokes has only batted at three for the Test team once – out for 19 against Sri Lanka in 2018 – but if he does not have a bowling workload to worry about, he has the technique and temperament to be successful in the role.
Big decisions need to be made at both selection tables before next Wednesday – with each of the first three matches going down to the wire, making the wrong choice could prove the difference between winning and losing the Ashes.