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For about 90 per cent of this season, Sydney haven’t been a good team.
But they’ve rarely looked closer to getting back to being one than they did against the Western Bulldogs.
There were the same old Swans moments to frustrate supporters and believers in them alike: they turned the ball over in defence to an alarming degree early, were smashed around the ball by a battle-hardened Bulldogs midfield for much of the night, and their set-shot kicking was again a case of spurning chances by the bucketload.
But in between those patches, the Swans were superb at the SCG. And while only time will tell whether it has come too late to resurrect their season – as of Thursday night they’re a win and percentage outside the eight, and are guaranteed to finish at least six points behind – there is at least a strong sense that this lost year will form the basis for a speedy bounce-back in 2024, and for the years to come afterwards.
This was a win built on pressure as much as any game this season. The Swans, whether spurred on by a home crowd or the emotion of John Longmire’s 300th game or just the knowledge that this was a very winnable game against very vulnerable opposition, were ferocious at man and ball all evening.
The result was a whopping 90 tackles for the evening – the most they’ve laid in any game this season, and 17 clear of their third-best result. 22 of those were laid inside 50 – to give you an idea of how high that number is, the Swans lead the league for tackles inside 50 this season… and heading into Thursday night they’d averaged 12 per game.
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Their pressure factor rating was equally incredible – 203 for the night, above the Dogs (187) and comfortably better than the AFL average of 180, and peaking at a staggering 244 in the second term.
The smaller dimensions of the SCG worked perfectly for this plan to box the Dogs in, surround them from all sides, and capitalise on mistakes – the Dogs kicked out on the full a LOT coming out of their defensive 50 in particular.
Tackle numbers can often be misleading in terms of their importance – you can’t tackle if you have the ball, after all – but it has been a pretty good gauge on how the Swans have tracked in 2023. For a team that routinely gets outhunted for the hard ball, having won the clearance count just five times this season and the contested possession count six times, pressure at the coalface at least allows that dominance to be mitigated.
That the Dogs ended up bossing the clearances 52-34, including 11-5 in the crucial last quarter, with Tom Liberatore and Tim English racking up 11 and 10 respectively, and yet couldn’t regularly translate that into territory dominance was eye-catching.
The reason? After quarter time, quality ball use from those clearances mostly dried up. The Swans were able to force the Dogs ‘up the chimney’ frequently from centre bounces, forcing high hopeful balls far easier to be mopped up by Sydney’s back six than the more precise passing of the first term.
The Dogs had six marks inside 50 to start the game, three coming to Aaron Naughton as he was repeatedly hit on the chest making leads into space. They’d have just six more across the remaining three quarters, with Naughton, good as he was, only managing two more.
Those high hopeful balls were absolute manna from heaven for Tom McCartin, who for just about the first time all season looked the superb player he was in 2022 before concussion derailed his and his brother’s seasons. One week after returning from a nine-round absence, and having been used further afield against Richmond on his return, he was back to being the defensive lynchpin the Swans have been screaming out for all season long.
McCartin ended with five intercept marks from three quarters and change before being hobbled by a leg problem, all the while giving Jamarra Ugle-Hagan the most fearsome of baths. Reading the ball superbly in the air and strong enough to shunt his lighter opponent underneath the ball regularly, this was a sensational display from a man whom the Swans have dearly missed throughout 2023.
The pressure also wrought a marked difference between the two sides’ ball movement out of defence. The Bulldogs have long been hugely leaky defending in transition, and the Swans ripped them a new one in that regard a little over 12 months ago for what I described then as Luke Beveridge’s most pitiful loss as coach.
Tom Papley celebrates a goal. (Photo by Matt King/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
That was a Sydney team firing on all cylinders and at the peak of its powers; the diminished Swans of 2023 weren’t nearly so polished, but the intent and aggression has mostly remained true all year and was good enough tonight when supported by ferocious intent at the ball at all times.
The Swans’ biggest threat this season has been the regular occasions they turn the ball over in dangerous positions – their love of the corridor and willingness to take the game on with attacking half-backs in Nick Blakey, Ollie Florent and co. makes them vulnerable to goals out the back into open space inside 50 if they turn it over, especially when the McCartin brothers aren’t back there as insurance.
Of course, it helps when it’s Errol Gulden getting the ball inside 50 on 11 of those 51 occasions – I’m not sure there’s a better field kick in the competition than the Swans young gun. A beautiful decision-maker whose only mistakes by foot come on the rare times when he bites off more than he can chew and becomes too ambitious, he must be a joy to lead to.
Their opponents, it must be said, are ghastly at intercepting – for Marcus Bontempelli to be equal-top of their list for intercept marks with four speaks volumes about the lack of aerial impact Alex Keath and Ryan Gardner have compared to McCartin at the other end – and when the ball hit the ground, the Swans were there in droves to either win the ball or tackle until their arms fell off, force a stoppage, and go it again.
The other impressive aspect of the Swans’ performance was how successful they were at keeping the ball moving. I’ve not seen them soccer off the ground as much all season as they did on Thursday night, in conditions that, while not perfect, were far from too slippery to handle the ball comfortably.
There was a passage of play in the third quarter where Justin McInerney twice soccered the ball forward from a contest where the Dogs had the advantage of numbers, trusting his teammates to do their bit ahead of the ball; it worked, he soccered forward again from the next contest, and the Swans were away.
It’s smart coaching from John Longmire to do this, and a reason the Swans were able to limit the amount of stoppages in the game as much as they could. In the first term, there were 25; for the last three, it was down to a little over 20 per quarter. It’s not a huge difference, but in a game where the Dogs’ best chance came in controlling the ball from the coalface, those little wins were enough.
It contributed to the Swans being able to generate an inside 50 from roughly 20 per cent of their defensive 50 possession chains, compared to just 7 per cent from the Dogs. Kicking five goals from those chains – the Bulldogs’ weakness at stopping teams going coast to coast on them coming back to bite them badly – it’s what won them the match.
And on how they stopped the Dogs from doing likewise; it’s that pressure again. Just as significant as the 22 tackles inside 50 were the players doing the tackling: Joel Amartey, the tallest man in there, had a game-high five along with Isaac Heeney, whose tackling intent made up for an otherwise sporadic game from the man who last year was their chief matchwinner.
Lance Franklin, far from a known tackler, had three, winning a holding the ball free off one in the second term. Sam Wicks, back into the team for his pressure work, had two, as did James Rowbottom and Will Hayward.
Compare that to the Dogs; Naughton had three and was wonderful, creating one Cody Weightman goal in the third term through his follow-up work alone.
Weightman and Rhylee West had none between them, nor did Ugle-Hagan; considering how outworked he was in the air by McCartin, the lack of Amartey-like follow-up at ground level was partly disappointing, partly because of how often he was being outmarked.
It all comes together in spectacular fashion for the goal that ended up winning them the match. From a stoppage on their defensive 50 arc, Luke Parker sharks the ball, and without even thinking for a second, throws it on the boot. He knows the Dogs’ intercept game isn’t great, and that getting it forward and getting it there quickly before they have time to set up, especially without English behind the ball, is their best chance.
There’s a bit of luck in that it falls directly on the chest of Will Hayward, but even if the Swans had neutralised that ball instead, they’d proved all night to be superior in getting quick ball movement going when the Sherrin is in dispute. The reason why presents itself shortly after: Isaac Heeney, at that defensive 50 stoppage before and opposed to Marcus Bontempelli, is flying past for a handball receive.
The Bont is never quick, and after 18 second-half disposals, two titanic goals and a mountain of work at clearances, had a right to be knackered. But the Dogs are set to pay a price for having no one loose behind the ball, something which, with a lead at that stage of the match, pretty much every other team would have had.
John Longmire put Callum Mills in that role about two minutes later, and he duly intercepted a wayward hacked kick inside 50 from Adam Treloar that snuffed out the Dogs’ last proper chance.
The problem is, as Heeney dashes clear down the wing, no Bulldogs defender is brave enough to recognise Heeney as the danger and try to block that off at the source, knowing no one sits behind to equalise if that contest is lost. So Laitham Vandermeer runs full pelt back to goals, hotly pursuing Tom Papley, while Bailey Dale is doing likewise with Wicks.
Dale eventually goes, but it’s far too late: not only is he no hope of impacting Heeney’s kick by the time he goes to corral, but he’s officially let Wicks loose. The result is that Heeney kicks inside 50 to a four on three, and with no Bulldog within 40 metres of goal.
This has been the big issue with the Dogs since Liam Jones broke his arm, and indeed for all of 2022: their press is so high, their focus so total on winning stoppages, that teams able and willing to get fast breaks on them score far more regularly than against any team not named North Melbourne or West Coast.
Say what you will about Melbourne, but Steven May is loose behind that ball every day of the week. Even if Keath and Gardner are a long way from that level, there had to be at least some insurance behind the ball given the stakes. It happens on an almost weekly basis, and regularly enough to leave one of the best and most influential clearance-winning midfields in the business essentially papering over the cracks.
Heeney is smart enough to know where the danger space is: he kicks over the Dogs and towards goal, where Wicks is now running free and Papley remains goal side of Vandermeer, who has essentially been half a metre behind for the last 100.
It’s not a great kick, holding up long enough for Papley to not be able to hit it flat out running towards goal and letting Vandermeer catch up; an elite defender would have had the chance to get in with a big spoil and knock that ball to safety, or at least buy some time until the cavalry could arrive and, maybe, force a stoppage.
Vandermeer, having been trialled in defence for under two months, is not an elite defender. He misses with his spoil, and worse still, goes to ground.
By the time Papley gathers in the goalsquare, it’s him and Wicks and no Dogs in sight. It’s the simplest match-winning goal you’ll ever see.
The Swans knew their enemy at the SCG. They knew the Dogs’ high handball style coming out of stoppages made them vulnerable to pressure, and that their backline rebounders, Dale especially, would struggle to hit targets with their usual accuracy coming out of defensive 50.
It’s a win brilliantly orchestrated by Longmire, and perfectly acted upon by his team. That they didn’t win by more is largely down to the limitations that 2023’s Sydney has in its ball movement and kicking skills, both in general play and for goal: but make no mistake, they were the better side for most of Thursday night.
Even if it is too late to salvage their season, it’s a performance to give all sorts of hope to surging back into finals, and maybe even premiership, contention in just 12 months’ time.
That’s more than can be said about their opponents, at least.
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