Well, last week was… easy?

If you tipped the favourites, you’d have made out with at least a 7 or an 8… if you’re a Blues fan, you might have even made it out with a perfect 9.

All up, it was a refreshing round of normality after a season of utter chaos on the tipping front – but be warned, it’s not going to last forever.

Indeed, Round 18 looks like being a challenge, with several seriously tough games that have divided our expert tippers.

With finals on the line, it’s a bad time for teams to slip up when they’re not expected to… so who will get the chocolates this weekend?

Tim Miller

Last week: 7

Western Bulldogs, Brisbane, Collingwood, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Brisbane

I’m shuddering as I type this – I’m backing in my Bulldogs to get the job done over Sydney to start the round tonight.

I’ve had a lot of success this year at reverse-jinxing my team to victory, courtesy of the absolute nightmare my tipping season has been, but while the Dogs are underdogs according to the bookies, they really shouldn’t be. A Chad Warner-less Swans got belted in the midfield by Richmond last week, and they’ve surprisingly dropped Tom Hickey to go in without a recognised ruckman for this one, which is perfect for Tim English.

A win could leave the Dogs equal-fourth at round’s end if things go right – lose, and they’ll probably slump outside the eight entirely. It’s that important. I’m terrified.

How about that for courage from Marcus Bontempelli?#AFLSwansDogs pic.twitter.com/Ji3grC7elG

— AFL (@AFL) June 25, 2020

I’m completely shelving the concept of home ground advantage and tipping Brisbane to beat Melbourne on Friday night – yes, the MCG holds a curse for them, but there’s just so much talent in that team compared to a Clayton Oliver, Bayley Fritsch-less Demons and they’ve won their last two on the Dees, including the semi final last year. If they’re a serious flag contender, they’ll be winning this.

Let’s speed run through the easy games on Saturday – Collingwood will be thrashing a depleted Fremantle who are back to playing terrible footy, and Adelaide at home is a different beast to their away team and should be taking care of GWS. Geelong, too, have the GMHBA Stadium edge on Essendon, and I have a feeling match up well on the Bombers in attack with Tom Hawkins and the returning Jeremy Cameron.

Then there’s a mild toughie, with Carlton a distinct chance of knocking over Port Adelaide: the Power are due a loss and the Blues in season-best form. I’m not brave enough to tip them, however.

Starting the day, though, is a serious 50/50 game: a post-Stuart Dew Gold Coast against the wounded St Kilda. At the start of the week I had this pencilled in as a Suns victory – they play much better at home than away, Jarrod Witts in gives them a crucial difference to the team that played the Saints earlier in the season, and St Kilda have been ripped to shreds by injury.

But I have a sneaking suspicion the Suns players, who have backed in Dew for years, won’t be too happy about his axing, and therefore won’t be capable of the usual caretaker-coach bounce that we often see. Mostly, though, I’ve seen all my fellow tipsters are backing the Suns, and I’ve got nothing to lose – so don’t let me down, Saints!

Sunday is an almighty dose of yuck, with the bottom three all featuring. Hawthorn are just better than North Melbourne, especially with James Sicily back – the real watch is whether Luke Davies-Uniacke gets tagged into oblivion by Finn Maginness like he did to Josh Kelly last week.

And finally, West Coast will probably fight hard at home against Richmond like they did against St Kilda, but the Tigers should be tough enough to ride it out and then win by plenty to keep their finals hopes alive.

Dem Panopoulos

Last week: 7

Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Collingwood, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Richmond

We’re in the home stretch and the unpredictability of the season is exciting.

Forget about knowing who’s going to make finals – it’s hard enough to pick each game in isolation. Throw away the links to the ladder predictors and just enjoy each week as it comes.

The Swans seem destined for a bottom four finish, a far cry from their grand final appearance last season. They’ve only played the Bulldogs at the SCG twice in the last six years, so there’s no form to go off, but you’d expect the travelling team to look at securing their finals spot as early as possible.

Friday night looms as a huge match between an undermanned Melbourne team and the Brisbane Copperfields. If an 80+ point victory can leave you feeling underwhelmed with the style of play and further convince someone that this team is a mirage of sorts, then that’s what the Lions did against West Coast.

They don’t travel well – let’s see what they do against a team with the biggest upside in the league.

Collingwood looks unstoppable at the moment, and at home against a Caleb Serong-less Dockers, should have an easy kill.

There’s been plenty spoken about Stuart Dew’s exit from the Suns, but let me give my two cents in non-article form – it’s a disgrace.

The sacked coach bounce is real and the Saints are struggling now anyway, so I think Gold Coast wins, but the board of that club are the biggest obstacle to ever getting full buy-in to what they’re doing up there.

GRESHAM! #AFLSunsSaints pic.twitter.com/2398DFAWHZ

— AFL (@AFL) June 16, 2018

The best team at the AFL, Port Adelaide, is playing a team that has generally struggled in recent times at Marvel Stadium, Carlton. Similarly, this fixture is pretty one-sided – the Blues have won four of their last 12 against the Power, with the margins of these games being one, two, three and four points.

Yet with their two key forwards in Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow firing, this is a genuine 50/50. I’ve flipped the coin here – it’s come up the Power’s way still.

Geelong at home against Essendon is one of those games that will give false hope to Bombers fans; but really, they’ve not got a huge chance, particularly if Jordan Ridley is out and Jeremy Cameron is in.

Similarly, the Giants are so impressive, but they’ve not got a huge chance of winning in Adelaide against the Crows. The Eagles too, will have some confidence that their defence can stand up a bit better with some best 22 guys available, but the Tigers should keep their minor finals hopes alive in Perth.

Finally, North against Hawks. It’s been an eon since the Kangaroos won and now James Sicily is back. Only a coaching change would help North here.

Cameron Rose

Last week: 6

Western Bulldogs, Brisbane, Collingwood, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Richmond

Six last week for me – yikes. Let’s speed through this week and hope for better.

The Bulldogs should be beating Sydney, even at the SCG, with so much at stake and the Swans minus a series of key players.

Brisbane have a horrible record at the MCG, which worries me, but they keep insisting it’s only the quality of the opposition that is troubling them. Well, a Melbourne without Bayley Fritsch and Clayton Oliver and which they beat at the venue in last year’s semi final is a good litmus test of how true that hallowed turf hoodoo is.

Fremantle wouldn’t be beating Collingwood even if they had Caleb Serong, Brennan Cox and Hayden Young available. They don’t, so it’s the Pies by how many.

Gold Coast surely sacked Stuart Dew last week because they saw a winnable fixture against St Kilda at home and knew they couldn’t give him the lemonade and sars (in Jack Riewoldt’s words) after a win. With no Max King and a bunch of others out at the Saints, the Suns really should be winning this, but if the players are fuming about Dew’s axing they might just put in a shocker.

Carlton have improved, but under the roof has been Port Adelaide’s domain all season, and I’m doubtful the Blues have improved enough to be taking down the equal ladder-leaders just yet. Should be a good game all the same.

A touch of class from Sam Powell-Pepper ⚡️#AFLBluesPower pic.twitter.com/ricxvCMEFG

— AFL (@AFL) April 17, 2022

If Essendon had succeeded in getting their game with Geelong moved to the MCG they’d be in this game up to their eyeballs – but the Cats at home should be too strong, and at any rate they handled the Bombers pretty comfortably earlier in the season.

The other Saturday night game should be a beauty – Adelaide at home are a different beast than away, though, and should be taking care of GWS in a match that will probably deal the loser’s finals hopes a terminal blow.

Hawthorn face North Melbourne in a standalone Sunday afternoon game – yuck. Hawks for me, but I have a gut feeling the Roos are due a win at some point, and this might be their best chance for the year. If they had Jy Simpkin and James Sicily wasn’t returning, I might have changed my mind.

Last and least, Richmond should be doing to West Coast just what they did last year when they head to Perth. The Tigers aren’t what I’d call ‘good’, but the Eagles aren’t what I’d call ‘AFL standard’ either, though they should be better at home than they’ve been away.

Liam Salter

Last week: 7

Sydney, Brisbane, Collingwood, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Richmond

Another seven from nine for me last week, with a strong round bookended with missed tips of Sydney and (he says through gritted teeth) Fremantle.

There’s some really exciting games this weekend – and also a peculiar Gold Coast versus St Kilda clash.

Let’s start there. The Suns made a mistake this week, and head into their encounter on Saturday afternoon with an interim coach. Stuart Dew’s joke of a sacking – five days after the club’s CEO shot down rumours otherwise – leaves a sour taste in my mouth, but that’s for column, not tipping, inches.

While some suggest otherwise, it could perversely become a motivator for the Suns, even against a Saints side desperate to stay in the eight. For Dew, the Suns will earn this one. 

Elsewhere on Saturday, Collingwood are going to win by plenty against a directionless (and Caleb Serong-less) Freo, who shredded all of my remaining hope with last weekend’s horror show.

Two hours and a few kilometres away later, the somehow-fighting-for-finals Blues host Port. The Power have a strong record against Carlton, have no qualms winning in Melbourne this year and are just a better side. Despite the Blues’ obvious and immeasurable improvement throughout the past month, this is a bridge too far. 

The Cats and Bombers encounter on Saturday night should be a fantastic one. Geelong seem on track to lock in a finals berth that many questioned – of course they are – but the Dons didn’t look too shabby last weekend in an excellent win over Adelaide. The GMHBA Stadium factor looms large here, as does the likely return of Jeremy Cameron. The Cats to take the points.

"There's a new Martin in town!"

The debutant has four ????#AFLCatsDons pic.twitter.com/tiWD4VxJO1

— AFL (@AFL) March 19, 2022

As will Adelaide, who desperately need a win and get a good chance to do so in the comforts of the Adelaide Oval, though the Giants loom large after four consecutive wins. 

Sunday’s games split the difference in terms of tipping difficulty. West Coast have a slim chance of navigating a visit from Richmond to earn a surprise win, but I’m nowhere near brave enough to back that, so it’ll be the Tigers comfortably.

The Kangaroos are sandwiched between the aforementioned Eagles and their Round 18 opponents Hawthorn on the ladder, and this is as good a chance at a win of any game they’ve played this year. Hawks for me though – just *slightly* more trustworthy. 

I don’t actually expect tomorrow night’s clash to be very high quality. Weird to say when it’s fourth hosting third, but juggling the Lions’ poor away record with the Demons’ underperforming form, and you get an oddity. I’ll back the Lions to break their streak.

And saving the first until last, the Bulldogs are a logically surer bet against Sydney, but the Swans pulverised them at the SCG last year. It won’t be a loss like that, but a setback to the Dogs finals ambitions is coming.

Round 18	Tim	Dem	Cam	Liam	Crowd
SYD vs WB	WB	WB	WB	SYD	SYD
MEL vs BL	BL	MEL	BL	BL	MEL
COL vs FRE	COL	COL	COL	COL	COL
GCS vs STK	STK	GCS	GCS	GCS	GCS
CAR vs PA	PA	PA	PA	PA	PA
GEE vs ESS	GEE	GEE	GEE	GEE	GEE
ADE vs GWS	ADE	ADE	ADE	ADE	ADE
NM vs HAW	HAW	HAW	HAW	HAW	HAW
WCE vs RCH	RCH	RCH	RCH	RCH	RCH
LAST WEEK	7	7	6	7	8
ROLLING TOTAL	91	100	97	95	103